Great Britain just lifted the Davis Cup trophy in late November. Fast forward barely more than three months and first-round action is already getting underway in 2016. Andy Murray and company will begin their title defense against Japan, which is led by Kei Nishikori but has to go on the road to face the Brits in Birmingham. Among the other first-round ties are the United States vs. Australia, the Czech Republic vs. Germany, and Croatia vs. Belgium.
United States vs. Australia
Where: Melbourne, Australia
Surface: Grass
United States: John Isner, Jack Sock, Bob Bryan, Mike Bryan
Australia: Bernard Tomic, Sam Groth, John Peers, Lleyton Hewitt
Nick Kyrgios is out; Lleyton Hewitt is in. That’s right; Kyrgios’ absence stemming from both injury and illness leaves the door open for Hewitt to become a player-captain. Although the recently-retired Hewitt is now an official member of the team in addition to his captaincy, the more likely scenario is that Sam Groth will play both singles and doubles for the Australians. No. 1 singles player Bernard Tomic is in fine form and generally fares well on grass, but he is making a quick turnaround following a runner-up showing on the hard courts of Acapulco.
Nobody on the American side is in particularly great form at the moment. Aside from a fourth-round performance at the Australian Open, John Isner has won only a single match in three events. Jack Sock has not picked up a victory since the opening round in Melbourne. Bob and Mike Bryan are without a title in four tournaments this season and have lost their first match at two of the four. On an unfavorable surface away from home, Team USA will have its hands full.
Prediction: Australia 3, United States
Czech Republic vs. Germany
Where: Hannover, Germany
Surface: Indoor hard
Czech Republic: Tomas Berdych, Lukas Rosol, Radek Stepanek, Jiri Vesely
Germany: Philipp Kohlschreiber, Alexander Zverev, Dustin Brown, Philipp Petzschner
Both nations have all of their top players on board. Germany has home-court advantage, but the Czech Republic owns a clear edge in experience. This tie has a little bit of everything: a 37-year-old (Radek Stepanek), an 18-year-old (Alexander Zverev), someone who is generally considered a villain (Lukas Rosol), and someone who appears to have the makings of a fan favorite (Zverev). It also has Dustin Brown. The result should be an entertaining and competitive tie—perhaps the best of the weekend.
Berdych and Stepanek led their country to Davis Cup glory in both 2012 and 2013, but it is Rosol who will be joining Berdych in singles duty this week. Rosol will be an underdog in each of his rubbers, so Berdych may have to account for all three points if the visitors want to prevail. The world No. 7 is 28-14 lifetime in Davis Cup singles and 20-2 in doubles. Zverev, meanwhile, has never played a match in this competition.
Prediction: Germany 3, Czech Republic 2
Croatia vs. Belgium
Where: Liege, Belgium
Surface: Indoor clay
Serbia: Marin Cilic, Borna Coric, Ivan Dodig, Franko Skugor
Belgium: David Goffin, Ruben Bemelmans, Kimmer Coppejans, Arthur De Greef
Like Great Britain in 2015, Belgium benefited from playing a bunch of home ties to reach the final last fall. The Belgians even enjoyed home-court advantage in the championship tie, but Murray and the visiting Brits proved to be too much. David Goffin and company are back at home in the 2016 first round (as is Great Britain, for that matter), but they face a difficult test in the form of Croatia.
The question is where will the home team pick up a point aside from Goffin’s two singles matches. Based on current form and the clay surface, Goffin may be able to beat both Borna Coric and Marin Cilic. Croatia, however, will be favored in doubles thanks mostly to Ivan Dodig—one of the best doubles players on tour. Can either Ruben Bemelmans or Kimmer Coppejans manage to score a singles win if Belgium loses the doubles match? It’s possible, but not likely.
Prediction: Croatia 3, Belgium 2
Japan vs. Great Britain
Where: Birmingham, Great Britain
Surface: Indoor hard
Japan: Andy Murray, Kyle Edmund, Jamie Murray, Dominic Inglot
Great Britain: Kei Nishikori, Yoshihito Nishioka, Taro Daniel, Yasutaka Uchiyama
Interest in this tie is generated by a potential fourth live rubber between Murray and Kei Nishikori. Everything else should be straightforward–including on day one. Murray will certainly coast past Taro Daniel in the opening rubber before Nishikori likely makes quick work of Daniel Evans. Either the Murray brothers or Jamie Murray and Dominic Inglot will be tipped to dominate Saturday’s doubles rubber to give the host country a 2-1 lead.
That would set the stage for a Murray-Nishikori battle on Sunday, with Murray likely having a chance to send his team to the quarterfinals. The world No. 2 went an incredible 11-0 in total rubbers last year and he is 34-7 lifetime in Davis Cup—including 27-2 in singles. His match against Daniel on Friday will help Murray shake off the rust after taking paternity leave throughout February.
Prediction: Great Britain 3, Japan 1
Other ties
Kazakhstan at Serbia: Serbia 3-0
Switzerland at Italy: Italy 3-0
Argentina at Poland: Argentina 3-2
Canada at France: France 3-0
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