Written by: Staff on 11th February 2015

* No Top Ten spot for Dimitrov after loss to Muller in Rotterdam

* Monfils tops Bautista Agut; closes in on return to Top Twenty

* Karlovic second victim of Krajicek’s breakthrough event in Memphis; Nishikori barely survives against Harrison

* Almagro upsets countryman Tommy Robredo in Sao Paulo

**Rotterdam**

Singles – First Round: (1) A Murray def. (Q) N Mahut 6-3 6-2

A potential first step toward a return to the #3 ranking for Andy Murray, although he needs a lot more than this.

Singles – First Round: (4) S Wawrinka def. (WC) J Huta Galung 6-3 3-6 6-3

This wasn’t a particularly long match — about an hour and forty minutes, and it would have been shorter had Stan Wawrinka not fired multiple lets on match points — but if Wawrinka wants to get his ranking back up, he’ll need to do better than this. He still needs at least three more wins to rise above his current #8.

Singles – First Round: G Garcia-Lopez def. D Istomin 7-6(7-5) 6-4

There is a chance this will put Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the Top 25. Another win would just about guarantee it.

Singles – First Round: A Seppi def. (WC) R Haase 6-7(5-7) 6-3 6-3

Robin Haase’s ranking has gone into the tank, which is why he needed a wildcard here. Maybe he needs to take some lessons from Andreas Seppi, who suddenly is in very good form although this won’t yet improve his ranking.

Singles – Second Round: G Muller def. (5) G Dimitrov 6-2 7-6(10-8)

Grigor Dimitrov had some trouble in the first round, and obviously more here. That means he won’t be reaching the Top Ten; Marin Cilic will keep the #10 spot. Gilles Muller continues to climb the rankings; this will likely take him above #35. At this rate, he’ll be seeded at the summer Slams. He probably can’t do much on clay, but that serve alone will make him dangerous at Wimbledon!

Singles – Second Round: G Monfils def. (7) R Bautista Agut 7-5 7-6(7-5)

Gael Monfils just fell out of the Top Twenty. By the looks of things, he wants back in — although this won’t quite do it; he needs one more victory. Roberto Bautista Agut won’t rise above his current #16, although there is only a very slight chance he will fall.

Singles – Second Round: S Stakhovsky def. D Thiem 6-1 6-3

Dominic Thiem loses a few points and will probably fall to right around #50.

Doubles – First Round: (2) Granollers/Lopez def. Kohlschreiber/Melzer 6-4 6-2

Doubles – First Round: Inglot/Mergea def. (Q) Fleming/Marray 6-2 7-6(7-2)

**Sao Paulo**

Singles – Second Round: N Almagro def. (2) T Robredo 6-3 7-6(7-1)

Nicolas Almagro still has points to defend, but his Top Hundred spot now looks quite secure. Tommy Robredo loses points — he and Almagro were both semifinalists this week last year — but he remains #17 for now; there is still a chance he could lose the spot, but we’d guess he’ll keep it.

Singles – Second Round: (4) L Mayer def. A Ramos-Vinolas 6-4 3-6 6-1

This will probably suffice to keep Leonardo Mayer Top Thirty, although it isn’t quite certain yet.

Singles – Second Round: (5) P Cuevas def. (LL) F Bagnis 5-1, retired (left shoulder)

The body giveth, and the body taketh away: A withdrawal put Facundo Bagnis in the draw, and now he’s withdrawn himself. Pablo Cuevas will probably return to the Top Thirty if he wins his next match.

Doubles – First Round: Lorenzi/Schwartzman def. (1) Peya/Soares 4-6 6-4 10-8

Peya/Soares came here a mere co-#22 in the doubles Race. They really need to find that magic something they’ve lost….

Doubles – First Round: (2) Cabal/Farah def. (WC) Demoliner/Dutra Silva 7-6(7-5) 4-6 10-6

Doubles – First Round: Cermak/Vesely def. (4) Cuevas/Marrero 7-5 6-7(2-7) 15-13

Hard to believe, with a scoreline line that, that this match lasted only an hour and 38 minutes. But both teams were very strong on serve, with just three breaks in the match.

Doubles – First Round: Andujar/Marach def. Carreno Busta/Gimeno-Traver 7-6(7-4) 6-4

Doubles – First Round: Barrientos/Giraldo def. Haider-Maurer/Ramos-Vinolas 6-3 6-3

Doubles – First Round: Sa/Souza def. M Gonzalez/Monaco 7-6(7-4) 7-6(7-3)

**Memphis**

Singles – Second Round: (1) K Nishikori def. (Q) R Harrison 3-6 6-3 6-4

Kei Nishikori’s camp has been talking about him rising to #3 or #4. Not this week, though. He’s the defending champion here, and could well fall to #6 if he doesn’t do well. So this was a rather scary start.

Singles – Second Round: (3) J Isner def. I Dodig 6-4 7-6(7-5)

When John Isner is getting in 80% of his first serves, as he was in the first set of this match, you aren’t going to break him. It’s that simple. Ivan Dodig didn’t even get a break point — and he faced just enough to be broken once. Isner didn’t serve quite as well in the second set, but not enough to affect the result. He hasn’t earned enough points to count, though.

Singles – Second Round: (Q) A Krajicek def. (5) I Karlovic 7-6(7-5) 4-6 6-4

This is quite literally the best ATP result of Austin Krajicek’s career — he had only one previous ATP win, and now he has two here. Ivo Karlovic, who lost despite hitting 32 aces, was last year’s finalist, so he’ll fall from #25 to no better than #28; we’d guess he’ll end up a spot or two lower.

Singles – Second Round: S Querrey def. (WC) J Donaldson 6-4 6-1

Not a particularly competitive match, obviously, but Jared Donaldson at least earned his first-ever ATP win. Not too bad for someone who is only eighteen years old. If Sam Querrey can win his next match — against pal John Isner — he’ll probably return to the Top Forty.

Doubles – First Round: Huey/Lipsky def. (2) Groth/Guccione 7-5 6-4

It’s rather surprising Huey/Lipsky weren’t seeded here; it is not a strong draw. No doubt Groth/Guccione wish they had been seeded….

Doubles – First Round: Smith/Venus def. (WC) Kozlov/Kudla 6-3 6-1

Doubles – First Round: Sitak/Young def. Johnson/Querrey 6-1 6-4

It continues to be a very good year for Artem Sitak, who already has nine doubles victories in 2015.

In columns toward the end of last year, we have looked at the rankings based on round points, and on quality points, and found some interesting hints about player performance. But is that all we can do with these numbers?

Assuredly not. Because we can see who had, or would have had, the most extreme ratios of round to quality points. Why does this matter? Because the guys who earn the most quality points relative to their round points are certainly the biggest upset artists, and if they’re young, there is a fair chance that this indicates that they will go a lot higher. The guys who have the lowest quality point ratios, on the other hand, are likely taking advantage of weak draws, or something, to crank up their rankings.

Keep in mind that this is based on the 2014 year-end data; the numbers would change somewhat if we were to do it today, but only slightly, since most 2014 results are still on the books.

To give a baseline, we took every player with ten or more ATP main draws and found his quality-to-round points ratio. For these players collectively, the ratio was 0.198 — that is, if we lumped together all the players’ points, they earned 0.198 quality points for every round point, or 198 quality points for every 1000 round points.

If we took the individual players and averaged their Q-to-R ratios, that turned out to be 0.223. Why so much higher? Probably because the guys with the most quality points were the top players, Djokovic and Federer in particular. They don’t have as many quality points available (since they cannot beat both #1 and #2 in an event!), so their ratios are inherently lower, and they pulled down the collective ratio. In any case, it’s the 0.223 number that tells us what to expect from the various players. Also, it’s important to know the median Q-to-R ratio. That turns out to be .215. And the standard deviation is .095. This is interesting and useful, because it turns out that the distribution of Q-to-R ratios is roughly normal or “bell-shaped.” So about two-thirds of the ratios should be within one standard deviation of the mean of 0.223, and about 95% will be within two standard deviations. We’ll organize the data accordingly. We once again take the players with ten or more ATP events, although we’ll throw in a few numbers for other players at the end.

So here is the list, in order of decreasing ratios (in other words, the first players we list have the highest ratio of quality points to round points, meaning that they are probably the biggest upset artists).

**Players very far above average: Quality-to-round ratios more than two standard deviations above the mean (i.e. more than 0.412):**

Brown: ratio=0.688

Brands: ratio=0.649

Devvarman: ratio=0.504

Daniel Brands doesn’t surprise us; he had a breakthrough season in 2013, then got hurt, so it makes sense that he would sometimes pull off big upsets. Somdev Devvarman’s case is somewhat similar. We’re not as sure about Dustin Brown, but the consensus has always been that he has shots but not much control over them — a common recipe for an upset artist.

**Players far above average: Ratios from one to two standard deviations above the mean (i.e. more than 0.318 but less than .412):**

Kukushkin: ratio=0.384

Dolgopolov: ratio=0.37

Berlocq: ratio=0.363

Haase: ratio=0.351

Matosevic: ratio=0.350

Tsonga: ratio=0.336

Thiem: ratio=0.332

Lu: ratio=0.326

Kukushkin is certainly an upset artist. Dolgopolov is a player who has shown incredible potential but lost his consistency last year. Ditto Tsonga, in a way. Thiem is highly promising. Haase is skilled but slumping, so it’s perhaps not surprising that he pulls off upsets on his good days. The rest… we can’t comment on.

**Players slightly above average: Ratios from zero to one standard deviations above the mean (i.e. more than 0.223 but less than .318):**

Melzer: ratio=0.313

Garcia-Lopez: ratio=0.313

Johnson: ratio=0.304

Sock: ratio=0.303

Stakhovsky: ratio=0.3

Przysiezny: ratio=0.285

Benneteau: ratio=0.284

Nieminen: ratio=0.267

Almagro: ratio=0.267

Lopez: ratio=0.263

Vesely: ratio=0.263

Gabashvili: ratio=0.26

Stepanek: ratio=0.26

Monaco: ratio=0.258

Karlovic: ratio=0.258

Monfils: ratio=0.256

Haas: ratio=0.256

Struff: ratio=0.252

Sijsling: ratio=0.251

Klizan: ratio=0.25

Querrey: ratio=0.249

Giraldo: ratio=0.249

Sela: ratio=0.248

Janowicz: ratio=0.244

Anderson: ratio=0.244

Montanes: ratio=0.239

Baghdatis: ratio=0.239

Falla: ratio=0.239

Bautista Agut: ratio=0.238

Rosol: ratio=0.237

Hanescu: ratio=0.235

Mannarino: ratio=0.235

Istomin: ratio=0.234

Robredo: ratio=0.233

Carreno Busta: ratio=0.23

De Schepper: ratio=0.226

Bellucci: ratio=0.226

There isn’t much we can say about this except to note the interesting fact that not one Top Ten player is in this group. We have some of the Top Twenty (Lopez, Monfils, Anderson, Bautista Agut, Robredo) — but it’s clear that it really is hard for the top players to earn high numbers in this regard.

**Players slightly below average: Ratios from zero to one standard deviations below the mean (i.e. less than 0.223 but more than .128):**

Granollers: ratio=0.218

Gulbis: ratio=0.218

Chardy: ratio=0.217

Gasquet: ratio=0.216

Seppi: ratio=0.216

Dodig: ratio=0.216

Davydenko: ratio=0.215

Verdasco: ratio=0.214

Youzhny: ratio=0.208

Hewitt: ratio=0.205

GonzalezA: ratio=0.203

Goffin: ratio=0.201

Lorenzi: ratio=0.2

Tursunov: ratio=0.198

Andujar: ratio=0.198

Delbonis: ratio=0.197

Cuevas: ratio=0.197

Kohlschreiber: ratio=0.197

Pospisil: ratio=0.196

Young: ratio=0.196

Roger-Vasselin: ratio=0.195

Simon: ratio=0.193

Gimeno-Traver: ratio=0.193

Nishikori: ratio=0.191

Harrison: ratio=0.19

Mathieu: ratio=0.189

Mahut: ratio=0.183

Cilic: ratio=0.183

Mayer, L: ratio=0.182

Kamke: ratio=0.181

Herbert: ratio=0.18

Ferrer: ratio=0.18

Dimitrov: ratio=0.176

Tomic: ratio=0.173

Ramos-Vinolas: ratio=0.17

Murray: ratio=0.169

Sousa: ratio=0.169

Federer: ratio=0.167

Becker: ratio=0.167

Fognini: ratio=0.162

Isner: ratio=0.158

Berdych: ratio=0.158

Ebden: ratio=0.151

Jaziri: ratio=0.151

Kubot: ratio=0.144

Lajovic: ratio=0.144

Paire: ratio=0.142

Lacko: ratio=0.14

Wawrinka: ratio=0.138

Golubev: ratio=0.136

Raonic: ratio=0.131

This is by far our largest block, with 51 of the 110 players we looked at. Finally we have some Top Ten players: Nishikori is the leader (we’ve seen several other indications that he produces the most upsets in the Top Ten), followed by Cilic, then (to our utter shock) Ferrer, Murray, Federer, Berdych, Wawrinka, and Raonic. That’s eight of the Top Ten. Which leaves two still to be accounted for:

**Players well below average: Ratios from one to two standard deviations below the mean (i.e. less than 0.128 but more than 0.034):**

Russell: ratio=0.128

Djokovic: ratio=0.127

Nadal: ratio=0.117

Smyczek: ratio=0.115

Nedovyesov: ratio=0.113

Ward: ratio=0.113

Riba: ratio=0.105

Groth: ratio=0.09

Klahn: ratio=0.078

Reister: ratio=0.073

Amazing to see two of the top three (Nadal and Djokovic) this low. This gives us all our players except one:

**Players extremely below average: Ratios more than two standard deviations below the mean (i.e. less than 0.034):**

Volandri: ratio=0.014

These ratios probably don’t predict future success in general, but it seems pretty clear that Volandri is washed up.

What about players with fewer than ten events? The most extreme case we saw was Yuki Bhambri, who had almost as many quality points as round, but that was all due to one fluke Top Ten win. We’ll ignore that and look only at players with at least four events. Among those players, the highest score is:

Coric: .468

More reason to think we should keep our eyes on him. Others above .318 (one standard deviation above the mean):

Krajinovic: .442

Troicki: .430

F. Mayer: .428

Kyrgios: .362

Berankis: .323

Berankis is dubious, but there is a lot of talent in the rest of that list. For players with limited activity, it seems to indicate real potential.

On the other hand, players below .128 (a standard deviation below the mean) who are fairly well known include, well… nobody. Other than Nadal and Djokovic, that is, who are special cases because their rankings are so high. There didn’t seem to be any other big names below that mark. So it appears we can’t forecast any big declines based on lack of quality points.

*KEYWORDS: Round Point to Quality Point Ratios Men*

**THIS WEEK ON THE ATP WORLD TOUR:**

Rotterdam (500/Indoor Hard). Defending Champion: Tomas Berdych

Memphis (250/Indoor Hard). Defending Champion: Kei Nishikori

Sao Paulo (250/Clay). Defending Champion: Federico Delbonis

**NEXT WEEK ON THE ATP WORLD TOUR:**

Rio de Janeiro (500/Clay). Defending Champion: Rafael Nadal

Marseille (250/Indoor Hard). Defending Champion: Ernests Gulbis

Delray Beach (250/Hard). Defending Champion: Marin Cilic

**Estimated ATP World Tour Rankings**

As of February 11, 2015

Rank &

Prior…Player………..Points

1..(1) Djokovic……….13045

2..(2) Federer…………9205

3..(3) Nadal…………..5745

4..(4) Murray………….5435

5..(5) Nishikori……….5045

6..(6) Raonic………….4845

7..(7) Berdych…………4250

8..(8) Wawrinka………..4095

9..(9) Ferrer………….3865

10.(10) Cilic…………..3690

11.(11) Dimitrov………..3465

12.(12) Tsonga………….2495

13.(13) Gulbis………….2330

14.(14) Lopez…………..2325

15.(15) Anderson………..2125

16.(16) Bautista Agut……1975

17.(17) Robredo…………1800

18.(18) Isner…………..1765

19.(19) Simon…………..1755

20.(20) Goffin………….1659

21.(21) Monfils…………1635

22.(22) Kohlschreiber……1460

23.(23) Dolgopolov………1420

24.(24) Gasquet…………1410

25.(27) Garcia-Lopez…….1405

26.(28) Benneteau……….1355

27.(26) Fognini…………1320

28.(25) Karlovic………..1295

29.(30) Mayer…………..1264

30.(29) Rosol…………..1245

**Rotterdam** — Week of February 9

……………..QF

1 Murray

8 Simon

3 Berdych

7 Bautista Agut..Monfils

5 Dimitrov…….Muller

4 Wawrinka

6 Gulbis………Stakhovsky

2 Raonic

STATUS OF SEEDS:

1 Murray

2 Raonic

3 Berdych

4 Wawrinka

5 Dimitrov…….lost 2R (Muller)

6 Gulbis………lost 1R (Thiem)

7 Bautista Agut..lost 2R (Monfils)

8 Simon

**Memphis** — Week of February 9

………………QF

1 Nishikori…….(1)Nishikori

5 Karlovic……..Krajicek(Q)

3 Isner………..(3)Isner

7 Becker……….Querrey

8 Mannarino

4 Dolgopolov

6 Johnson

2 Anderson (WC)

STATUS OF SEEDS:

1 Nishikori

2 Anderson (WC)

3 Isner

4 Dolgopolov

5 Karlovic……lost 2R (Krajicek)

6 Johnson

7 Becker……..lost 1R (Querrey)

8 Mannarino…..lost 1R (Young)

**Sao Paulo** — Week of February 9

……………QF

[Vanni(LL)]….

7 Verdasco

4 L Mayer……(4)Mayer

8 Klizan

6 Giraldo

3 Fognini

5 Cuevas……..(5)Cuevas

2 Robredo…….Almagro

STATUS OF SEEDS:

1 Lopez……..WITHDREW

2 Robredo……lost 2R (Almagro)

3 Fognini

4 L Mayer

5 Cuevas

6 Giraldo

7 Verdasco

8 Klizan

WEDNESDAY

Rotterdam

Singles – First Round

(1) A. Murray def. (Q) N. Mahut 6-3 6-2

(4) S. Wawrinka def. (WC) J. Huta Galung 6-3 3-6 6-3

A. Seppi def. (WC) R. Haase 6-7(5-7) 6-3 6-3

G. Garcia-Lopez def. D Istomin 7-6(7-5) 6-4

Singles – Second Round

G. Muller def. (5) G. Dimitrov 6-2 7-6(10-8)

G. Monfils def. (7) R. Bautista Agut 7-5 7-6(7-5)

S. Stakhovsky def. D Thiem 6-1 6-3

Doubles – First Round

(2) Granollers/Lopez def. Kohlschreiber/Melzer 6-4 6-2

Inglot/Mergea def. (Q) Fleming/Marray 6-2 7-6(7-2)

Memphis

Singles – Second Round

(1) K Nishikori def. (Q) R Harrison 3-6 6-3 6-4

(3) J Isner def. I Dodig 6-4 7-6(7-5)

(Q) A Krajicek def. (5) I Karlovic 7-6(7-5) 4-6 6-4

S Querrey def. (WC) J Donaldson 6-4 6-1

Doubles – First Round

Huey/Lipsky def. (2) Groth/Guccione 7-5 6-4

Smith/Venus def. (WC) Kozlov/Kudla 6-3 6-1

Sitak/Young def. Johnson/Querrey 6-1 6-4

Sao Paulo

Singles – Second Round

N. Almagro def. (2) T. Robredo 6-3 7-6(7-1)

(4) L. Mayer def. A. Ramos-Vinolas 6-4 3-6 6-1

(5) P. Cuevas def. (LL) F. Bagnis 5-1, retired (Left Shoulder)

Doubles – First Round

Lorenzi/Schwartzman def. (1) Peya/Soares 4-6 6-4 10-8

(2) Cabal/Farah def. (WC) Demoliner/Dutra Silva 7-6(7-5) 4-6 10-6

Cermak/Vesely def. (4) Cuevas/Marrero 7-5 6-7(2-7) 15-13

Andujar/Marach def. Carreno Busta/Gimeno-Traver 7-6(7-4) 6-4

(WC) Sa/Souza def. Gonzalez/Monaco 7-6(7-4) 7-6(7-3)

Barrientos/Giraldo def. Haider-Maurer/Ramos-Vinolas 6-3 6-3

Content via Bob Larson news service

Topics: Abn Amro World Tennis Tournament, Atp, Memphis Open, Rotterdam, Sao Paulo, Tennis

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