THE U.S. OPEN TENNIS STARTS MONDAY MINUS RAFA THE DEFENDING CHAMPION

Written by: on 23rd August 2014
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THE U.S. OPEN TENNIS STARTS MONDAY MINUS RAFA THE DEFENDING CHAMPION  |

Men’s Look Forward: U. S. Open

 

It simply isn’t going to feel the same.

It has been years since a U. S. Open has been so affected by injury. Defending champion Rafael Nadal is out. So is former champion Juan Martin del Potro. Andy Murray is here, but he clearly isn’t himself. Even Novak Djokovic seems to be a little bit off. It is clearly a wide-open field.

Other potential seeds who are missing include Alexandr Dolgopolov, Nicolas Almagro, and Tommy Haas.

That said, most people still find it hard to actually imagine a champion other than Djokovic, Murray, or Federer. Of course, that’s how everyone felt at the Australian Open, and then Stan Wawrinka happened….

Nadal’s absence is the most important change, because it so shook up the seeding list. Novak Djokovic is the #1 seed, and would have been #1 no matter what, but Nadal’s absence means that Roger Federer — who arguably has been the best player on the ATP since Roland Garros, with titles at Halle and Cincinnati and finals at Wimbledon and the Canadian Open — rises from #3 to #2. Stan Wawrinka, who would have been #4, rises to #3, and David Ferrer, who would have been #5, instead snags the #4 seed. Milos Raonic is #5, Tomas Berdych #6, Grigor Dimitrov shows how much he has improved in the last year by earning the #7 seed, and Andy Murray benefits from Nadal’s absence by taking the #8 seed instead of the #9 spot.

Djokovic didn’t get promoted in the seedings, but at least he was given a fairly nice draw. His first two rounds are trivial. The first seed he would face is #28 Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, who in’t likely to be a threat (although Yen-Hsun Lu and Sam Querrey are both in that part of the draw, and did well at Winston-Salem; they may be the bigger threats). The next seed Djokovic would face is #13 John Isner — but Isner is hurting after Winston-Salem, so he may be less than his best. The other seed in that part of the draw is #22 Philipp Kohlschreiber, who probably isn’t much of a threat either, and there are no other noteworthy names in that part of the draw.

It’s in the quarterfinal that things finally start to get interesting, because Djokovic is drawn to face #8 Andy Murray (struggling) or #9 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (who did just fine against Djokovic in the Canadian Open). The other seeds in that part of the draw are #24 Julien Benneteau and #31 Fernando Verdasco; also, Radek Stepanek could face Murray in the second round. Still, it seems likely that Djokovic will face either Murray or Tsonga. In the semifinal, Djokovic would face #3 Wawrinka.

#2 Federer also faces a pretty easy draw: Two trivial rounds, then #25 Ivo Karlovic. Then comes #15 Fabio Fognini (who probably should be seeded lower on grass) or #17 Roberto Bautista Agut. The quarterfinal could finally give us a really interesting match — Federer is drawn against #7 Grigor Dimitrov, which means we should get a really stylish match. Other seeds in that part of the draw are #12 Richard Gasquet (who has been hurting again), #20 Gael Monfils (also hurting) and #32 Joao Sousa (who is slumping badly). The closest thing to an unseeded threat is probably Dmitry Tursunov, who could face Monfils in round two, but he has been out for ages and will be rusty.

#3 seed Wawrinka’s draw runs through two easy rounds, then #30 Jeremy Chardy, then #16 Tommy Robredo or #21 Mikhail Youzhny or maybe Vasek Pospisil, then #5 Milos Raonic. Raonic’s eighth is a lot more interesting than Wawrinka’s; the other seeds are #10 Kei Nishikori (trying to come back from toe surgery), #23 Leonardo Mayer (who was very hot right after Wimbledon but then cooled off fast), and Lukas Rosol. Jack Sock, who could face Nishikori in round two, is probably the top “stealth” player in that part of the draw.

David Ferrer, the top Spaniard in the draw in the absence of Nadal, had the misfortune to have #6 Tomas Berdych land in his quarter, plus he might have to face Bernard Tomic in the second round. In the third, he will probably face #26 Gilles Simon, who however is very much off form. It gets tougher in the fourth round: #14 Marin Cilic (who has nowhere to go in the rankings but up) or #18 Kevin Anderson, or maybe Jerzy Janowicz. And then Berdych, or #11 Ernests Gulbis or #19 Feliciano Lopez or #27 Santiago Giraldo. And that section has lots of unseeded threats. Berdych opens against Lleyton Hewitt, then probably Martin Klizan. Lopez starts against Ivan Dodig, then Steve Johnson. Gulbis’s second round opponent could be Dominic Thiem. Cilic opens against Marcos Baghdatis, who has been doing very well in Challengers. And Anderson could face Janowicz in round two.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rankings

It’s lonely at the top — and it’s going to get lonelier. Novak Djokovic is entirely safe at #1, and will probably see his lead increase. But #2 is in the air. Rafael Nadal, #2 coming in, is the defending champion, and he isn’t back. Djokovic was the finalist. Semifinalists were Stan Wawrinka and Richard Gasquet. Making the quarterfinal were Mikhail Youzhny, Andy Murray, David Ferrer, and Tommy Robredo. (And who would have guessed, with that list, that it was a hardcourt event and not a clay tournament?) Of the rest of the Top Ten, Tomas Berdych, Milos Raonic, and Roger Federer made the Round of Sixteen; Grigor Dimitrov lost his opener; Jo-Wilfried Tsonga wasn’t in the draw.

With Nadal having the maximum to defend and Federer very little, that means that Federer has a real shot at #2, although he needs a title to get there; a final would leave him just short. His #3 ranking is secure; he has a lead of more than 2000 safe points on his countryman Wawrinka.

Wawrinka’s chances of staying #4 are good but not guaranteed. David Ferrer could pass him with a final; Milos Raonic or Tomas Berdych or just possibly Grigor Dimitrov could catch him with a title. Ferrer’s #5 spot is also surprisingly secure; Raonic or Berdych would need a semifinal to pass him, and anyone else would need more.

It appears Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Wawrinka, Ferrer, Raonic, Berdych, and Dimitrov are guaranteed to stay Top Ten (and are likely to be Top Eight). The last two spots are currently held by Tsonga and Murray — but with Tsonga ahead of Murray in safe points. Murray is in significant danger of losing his Top Ten spot; he has only a 120 point lead on Kei Nishikori, with Ernests Gulbis a hundred points behind that. With Marin Cilic, the next active player, some 700 points behind Gulbis, and 950 behind Murray, there doesn’t seem much chance of Murray or Tsonga ending up lower than #12.

Richard Gasquet is a mere #20 in safe points. Tommy Robredo is #23. Mikhail Youzhny is just barely clinging to the Top Thirty. It looks as if Tommy Haas will lose his Top Forty spot. Lleyton Hewitt, with fourth round points to defend, might end up below #

RANKINGS

 

Estimated ATP World Tour Rankings

As of August 22, 2014

 

Rank &

Prior…Player………..Points

1..(1) Djokovic……….12770

2..(2) Nadal………….10670

3..(3) Federer…………7490

4..(4) Wawrinka………..5985

5..(5) Ferrer………….4765

6..(6) Raonic………….4225

7..(7) Berdych…………4060

8..(8) Dimitrov………..3540

9..(9) Murray………….3150

10.(10) Tsonga………….2920

11.(11) Nishikori……….2680

12.(12) Gulbis………….2580

13.(13) Del Potro……….2410

14.(14) Gasquet…………2360

15.(15) Isner…………..1925

16.(16) Cilic…………..1845

17.(17) Fognini…………1835

18.(18) Robredo…………1825

19.(19) Bautista Agut……1800

20.(20) Anderson………..1775

21.(21) Lopez…………..1770

22.(23) Dolgopolov………1580

23.(24) Youzhny…………1540

24.(22) Monfils…………1530

25.(25) Kohlschreiber……1505

26.(26) MayerL………….1354

27.(27) Benneteau……….1285

28.(28) Almagro…………1250

29.(29) Karlovic………..1220

30.(30) Simon…………..1180

DRAWS

 

Winston-Salem — Week of August 18, 2014

 

…………………3R………………QF…………….SF……….F

1 Isner…………..(1)Isner…………Isner

13 Kukushkin………(13)Kukushkin

10 Andujar………..(10)Andujar

7 Rosol…………..(7)Rosol…………Rosol………….Rosol…….Rosol

 

3 Robredo…………Mahut

14 Seppi………….(14)Seppi………..Seppi

9 Lu……………..(9)Lu……………Lu…………….Lu

8 Granollers………(8)Granollers

 

6 Sousa…………..Janowicz…………Janowicz……….Janowicz…Janowicz

12 Roger-Vasselin….(12)Roger-Vasselin

15 Nieminen……….(15)Nieminen

4 L Mayer…………Goffin(Q)………..Goffin

 

5 Garcia-Lopez…….(5)Garcia-Lopez…..Garcia-Lopez

11 Young………….(11)Young

16 Johnson………..Querrey………….Querrey………..Querrey

2 Anderson (WC)……(2)Anderson

 

STATUS OF SEEDS:

1 Isner………….WITHDREW from QF

2 Anderson (WC)…..lost 3R (Querrey)

3 Robredo………..lost 2R (Mahut)

4 L Mayer………..lost 2R (Goffin)

5 Garcia-Lopez……lost QF (QUerrey)

6 Sousa………….lost 2R (Janowicz)

7 Rosol

8 Granollers……..lost 3R (Lu)

9 Lu…………….lost SF (Rosol)

10 Andujar……….lost 3R (Rosol)

11 Young…………lost 3R (Garcia-Lopez)

12 Roger-Vasselin…lost 3R (Janowicz)

13 Kukushkin……..lost 3R (Isner)

14 Seppi…………lost QF (Lu)

15 Nieminen………lost 3R (Goffin)

16 Johnson……….lost 2R (Querrey)

U. S. Open — Week of August 24, 2014

 

1 Djokovic

Schwartzman

Muller

Mathieu

M Gonzalez

Querrey

Lu

28 Garcia-Lopez

 

22 Kohlschreiber

Qualifier

Llodra (WC)

Gimeno-Traver

Kukushkin

Struff

Giron (WC)

13 Isner

 

9 Tsonga

Monaco

Qualifier

Nedovyesov

Carreno Busta

Qualifier

Paire

24 Benneteau

 

31 Verdasco

Rola

Klahn

Kuznetsov

Qualifier

Stepanek

Haase

8 Murray

 

3 Wawrinka

Vesely

Bellucci

Mahut

Kavcic

Young

Falla

30 Chardy

 

21 Youzhny

Kyrgios

Stakhovsky

Seppi

Bolelli

Pospisil

Roger-Vasselin

16 Robredo

 

10 Nishikori

Odesnik (WC)

Andujar

Sock

Ebden

Kamke

Montanes

23 L Mayer

 

29 Rosol

Qualifier

Estrella Burgos

Sijsling

Qualifier

Becker

Qualifier

5 Raonic

 

6 Berdych

Hewitt

Qualifier

Klizan

Donskoy

Qualifier

Gabashvili

27 Giraldo

 

19 Lopez

Dodig

Johnson

Qualifier

Lacko

Thiem

De Schepper

11 Gulbis

 

14 Cilic

Baghdatis

Qualifier

Qualifier

Janowicz

Lajovic

Cuevas

18 Anderson

 

26 Simon

Qualifier

Rubin (WC)

Delbonis

Tomic (WC)

Brown

Dzumhur

4 Ferrer

 

7 Dimitrov

Harrison (WC)

Berlocq

Sela

Qualifier

Goffin

Dancevic

32 Sousa

 

20 Monfils

Donaldson (WC)

A Gonzalez

Tursunov

Qualifier

Lorenzi

Istomin

12 Gasquet

 

15 Fognini

Golubev

Riba

Mannarino

Qualifier

Smyczek (WC)

Haider-Maurer

17 Bautista Agut

 

25 Karlovic

Nieminen

Melzer

Granollers

Ramos-Vinolas

Groth

Matosevic

2 Federer

******** SCORES ********

 

FRIDAY

Winston-Salem

Singles – Semifinal

(7) L Rosol def. (9) Y Lu 7-5 4-6 6-4

J Janowicz def. S Querrey 4-6 7-5 6-4

Doubles – Semifinal

Cabal/Farah def. Mergea/Sousa 6-2 6-3

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