Indian Wells, A Subjective Look @ The Mens Draw

Written by: on 5th March 2014
ACAPULCO TENNIS OPEN
Indian Wells, A Subjective Look @ The Mens Draw

epa04103178 Spaniard David Ferrer returns a ball to South African Kevin Anderson during their match at the Acapulco Tennis Open in Acapulco, Mexico, 27 February 2014. EPA/Jose Mendez  |

Men’s Look Forward: Indian Wells

 

Is there some rule that says Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer can never be sound at the same time? Nadal, after a long bout of back problems, is back to defend his title at Indian Wells, but Ferrer — who lost his opener last year — will be unable to play; he is the top player missing. And one of only three potential seeds to be absent. Juan Martin del Potro is in the draw, bad wrist and all; Tommy Haas is here, despite his bad shoulder. The potential seeds who aren’t here are Ferrer, fellow Spaniard Nicolas Almagro, and Benoit Paire. Jurgen Melzer, who wanted to come back this week but pulled out at the last moment, is the only other Top Fifty player missing.

Nadal is of course #1, with Novak Djokovic #2. Stanislas Wawrinka is #3 and in Nadal’s half; Tomas Berdych is #4. If that isn’t bad enough news for Nadal, he has #5 seed Andy Murray in his quarter. Injured #6 del Potro is in Djokovic’s part of the draw. #7 Roger Federer — whose draw is quite nice — is in his countryman Wawrinka’s quarter. And Berdych, who got a top four seed only because of Ferrer’s absence, would play his quarterfinal against #8 seed Richard Gasquet, who was seeded for the quarterfinal only because of Ferrer’s absence. (That’s definitely the weak quarter. There isn’t really much gap in points or results between #4, #5, and #6 — but the gap between #8 and #9 is huge. Berdych definitely had the best luck of the draw.)

In the Round of Sixteen, Nadal would face #13 Fabio Fognini. Djokovic’s fourth round opponent is #16 Tommy Robredo. Wawrinka’s opponent is supposed to be #14 Mikhail Youzhny, who has a tendency to go to pieces. Berdych is drawn against red-hot #15 seed Grigor Dimitrov. Murray’s fourth round opponent would be #10 Milos Raonic. Del Potro’s sore wrist could be pushed hard by the power of #9 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Federer’s draw gave him a meeting with the even-more-veteran #11 seed, Tommy Haas. Gasquet would face #12 seed John Isner.

Third round match-ups will pit Nadal against #28 Alexandr Dolgopolov and Fognini against #23 Gael Monfils. Raonic will trade big serves with #18 Jerzy Janowicz, Murray will take on clay-loving #32 Pablo Andujar, Wawrinka gets to face struggling #29 Andreas Seppi, and Youzhny is up against in-form #17 Kevin Anderson. Haas will face #19 Kei Nishikori, while Federer takes on #27 Dmitry Tursunov. Gasquet could face up-and-down #30 Fernando Verdasco, struggling Isner will have to take the steady defense of #22 Philipp Kohlschreiber, Dimitrov will have another meeting with #20 Ernests Gulbis, Berdych takes on #26 Florian Mayer, del Potro will face #25 Vasek Pospisil. Tsonga will try to deal with his struggling countryman, #21 Gilles Simon. Robredo is up against #24 Marin Cilic, who has had a great spring; the first seed Djokovic could face would be #31 Ivan Dodig.

The unseeded players are all ranked below #35, so although there are some genuine threats among them, there aren’t many great first round matches. But we will see Radek Stepanek face Denis Istomin for the right to take on Nadal. Federico Delbonis, just off his first title, could face Janowicz in the second round. Murray, who has been up-and-down this year, might face Lukas Rosol. Wawrinka may trade power with Ivo Karlovic. Seppi is likely to open against Sam Querrey — and while Querrey is out of form, Seppi may be even more so. Anderson will face the winner of the all-Australian battle between Lleyton Hewitt and Matthew Ebden. Haas is likely to start against Jeremy Chardy. Tursunov may well open against Juan Monaco. Dimitrov will probably face Robin Haase, with Gulbis in line to face Joao Sousa. Mayer will face either his countryman Daniel Brands or Jarkko Nieminen. Del Potro will likely be tested from the first, since he will probably face Feliciano Lopez. And Tsonga’s draw includes his countryman Julien Benneteau, although Benneteau isn’t in great form this year.

The Rankings

Last year, winning the title at Indian Wells truly told the world that Rafael Nadal was back. This year, it’s not going to make any difference — despite having the title to defend, Nadal is safe at #1. It’s going to make a lot more difference in the #5 to #8 range, because #7 Juan Martin del Potro was last year’s finalist. Novak Djokovic and Tomas Berdych were semifinalists; Andy Murry, Roger Federer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Kevin Anderson were quarterfinalists. Of the others in the Top Ten, Stanislas Wawrinka lost in the Round of Sixteen, as did Richard Gasquet; David Ferrer lost his opener.

In addition to Nadal being assured of staying #1, we know that Novak Djokovic will remain #2. Stanislas Wawrinka isn’t guaranteed to remain #3 — but, with Ferrer out, Wawrinka has a lead of more than 800 points on Andy Murray, the next active player. The only way Wawrinka can lose the #3 spot is if Murray wins Indian Wells and Wawrinka loses before the quarterfinal

Ferrer, at #4, is in more danger; Murray could pass him with a final, or Tomas Berdych, Roger Federer, or Juan Martin del Potro with a title. At least Ferrer is just about guaranteed to stay Top Five.

As has been true for much of the year, there is a huge gap between #8 and #9 — so large that even a title here can’t cross it. So the real contest is between Murray, Berdych, Federer, and del Potro for the #5-#8 spots. Murray has a lead of 175 points on Berdych, meaning that Berdych needs at least a semifinal to stay #5; Federer is another 85 points behind Berdych, and Del Potro, with all those points to defend, is another 175 points off the pace — and hurt. We can’t really guess the order those guys will end up in.

Richard Gasquet has about a 250 point lead on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the contest for the #9 ranking, so he seems sure in practice to stay Top Ten. Tsonga, with a 200 point lead on #11 Milos Raonic, also looks pretty solid but far from guaranteed.

Interestingly, the players from #9 to #17 are in exactly the same order in safe points as in the rankings coming in. The first change is at #18; Kevin Anderson’s #18 ranking is under threat because of all those points he has to defend. But he is still in the Top Twenty in safe points; we may see surprisingly little movement this week.

 

Estimated ATP World Tour Rankings

As of March 4, 2013

Rank &

Prior…Player………..Points

1..(1) Nadal………….13095

2..(2) Djokovic………..9910

3..(3) Wawrinka………..5570

4..(4) Ferrer………….5150

5..(6) Murray………….4715

6..(5) Berdych…………4540

7..(8) Federer…………4455

8..(7) Del Potro……….4280

9..(9) Gasquet…………2870

10.(10) Tsonga………….2615

11.(11) Raonic………….2405

12.(12) Haas……………2355

13.(13) Isner…………..2320

14.(14) Fognini…………2215

15.(15) Youzhny…………2145

16.(16) Dimitrov………..2095

17.(17) Robredo…………2005

18.(19) Almagro…………1805

19.(18) Anderson………..1770

20.(20) Janowicz………..1715

21.(21) Nishikori……….1680

22.(22) Gulbis………….1536

23.(24) Kohlschreiber……1510

24.(25) Monfils…………1485

24.(23) Simon…………..1485

26.(26) Cilic…………..1420

27.(27) Pospisil………..1343

28.(28) Paire…………..1240

29.(30) Tursunov………..1212

30.(29) Mayer…………..1210

**DRAWS

 

Indian Wells — week of March 3, 2014

1 Nadal

–bye

Stepanek

Istomin

Smyczek

Sock (WC)

–bye

28 Dolgopolov

 

23 Monfils

–bye

Stakhovsky

Kubot

Golubev

Harrison (WC)

–bye

13 Fognini

 

10 Raonic

–bye

Becker

Roger-Vasselin

Falla

Delbonis

–bye

18 Janowicz

 

32 Andujar

–bye

Vesely

Sijsling

Qualifier

Rosol

–bye

5 Murray

 

3 Wawrinka

–bye

Karlovic

Bogomolov

Qualifier

Querrey

–bye

29 Seppi

 

17 Anderson

–bye

Hewitt

Ebden

Russell

Young

–bye

14 Youzhny

 

11 Haas

–bye

Chardy

Williams (WC)

Gimeno-Traver

Giraldo

–bye

19 Nishikori

 

27 Tursunov

–bye

Monaco

Qualifier

Qualifier

Qualifier

–bye

7 Federer

 

8 Gasquet

–bye

Mahut

Gabashvili

Zeballos

R Ram (WC)

–bye

30 Verdasco

 

22 Kohlschreiber

–bye

Kamke

Lu

Przysiezny

Davydenko

–bye

12 Isner

 

15 Dimitrov

–bye

Haase

Qualifier

Nedovyesov

Sousa

–bye

20 Gulbis

 

26 F Mayer

–bye

Brands

Nieminen

Bautista Agut

Johnson (WC)

–bye

4 Berdych

 

6 del Potro

–bye

Lopez

Sela

Kukushkin

Qualifier

–bye

25 Pospisil

 

21 Simon

–bye

Qualifier

Qualifier

Benneteau

Qualifier

–bye

9 Tsonga

 

16 Robredo

–bye

Klahn

Matosevic

Carreno Busta

Qualifier

–bye

24 Cilic

 

31 Dodig

–bye

A Gonzalez

Mannarino

Hanescu

Qualifier

–bye

2 Djokovic

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