Indian Wells, A Subjective Look @ The Mens Draw
Indian Wells, A Subjective Look @ The Mens Draw
Men’s Look Forward: Indian Wells
Is there some rule that says Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer can never be sound at the same time? Nadal, after a long bout of back problems, is back to defend his title at Indian Wells, but Ferrer — who lost his opener last year — will be unable to play; he is the top player missing. And one of only three potential seeds to be absent. Juan Martin del Potro is in the draw, bad wrist and all; Tommy Haas is here, despite his bad shoulder. The potential seeds who aren’t here are Ferrer, fellow Spaniard Nicolas Almagro, and Benoit Paire. Jurgen Melzer, who wanted to come back this week but pulled out at the last moment, is the only other Top Fifty player missing.
Nadal is of course #1, with Novak Djokovic #2. Stanislas Wawrinka is #3 and in Nadal’s half; Tomas Berdych is #4. If that isn’t bad enough news for Nadal, he has #5 seed Andy Murray in his quarter. Injured #6 del Potro is in Djokovic’s part of the draw. #7 Roger Federer — whose draw is quite nice — is in his countryman Wawrinka’s quarter. And Berdych, who got a top four seed only because of Ferrer’s absence, would play his quarterfinal against #8 seed Richard Gasquet, who was seeded for the quarterfinal only because of Ferrer’s absence. (That’s definitely the weak quarter. There isn’t really much gap in points or results between #4, #5, and #6 — but the gap between #8 and #9 is huge. Berdych definitely had the best luck of the draw.)
In the Round of Sixteen, Nadal would face #13 Fabio Fognini. Djokovic’s fourth round opponent is #16 Tommy Robredo. Wawrinka’s opponent is supposed to be #14 Mikhail Youzhny, who has a tendency to go to pieces. Berdych is drawn against red-hot #15 seed Grigor Dimitrov. Murray’s fourth round opponent would be #10 Milos Raonic. Del Potro’s sore wrist could be pushed hard by the power of #9 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Federer’s draw gave him a meeting with the even-more-veteran #11 seed, Tommy Haas. Gasquet would face #12 seed John Isner.
Third round match-ups will pit Nadal against #28 Alexandr Dolgopolov and Fognini against #23 Gael Monfils. Raonic will trade big serves with #18 Jerzy Janowicz, Murray will take on clay-loving #32 Pablo Andujar, Wawrinka gets to face struggling #29 Andreas Seppi, and Youzhny is up against in-form #17 Kevin Anderson. Haas will face #19 Kei Nishikori, while Federer takes on #27 Dmitry Tursunov. Gasquet could face up-and-down #30 Fernando Verdasco, struggling Isner will have to take the steady defense of #22 Philipp Kohlschreiber, Dimitrov will have another meeting with #20 Ernests Gulbis, Berdych takes on #26 Florian Mayer, del Potro will face #25 Vasek Pospisil. Tsonga will try to deal with his struggling countryman, #21 Gilles Simon. Robredo is up against #24 Marin Cilic, who has had a great spring; the first seed Djokovic could face would be #31 Ivan Dodig.
The unseeded players are all ranked below #35, so although there are some genuine threats among them, there aren’t many great first round matches. But we will see Radek Stepanek face Denis Istomin for the right to take on Nadal. Federico Delbonis, just off his first title, could face Janowicz in the second round. Murray, who has been up-and-down this year, might face Lukas Rosol. Wawrinka may trade power with Ivo Karlovic. Seppi is likely to open against Sam Querrey — and while Querrey is out of form, Seppi may be even more so. Anderson will face the winner of the all-Australian battle between Lleyton Hewitt and Matthew Ebden. Haas is likely to start against Jeremy Chardy. Tursunov may well open against Juan Monaco. Dimitrov will probably face Robin Haase, with Gulbis in line to face Joao Sousa. Mayer will face either his countryman Daniel Brands or Jarkko Nieminen. Del Potro will likely be tested from the first, since he will probably face Feliciano Lopez. And Tsonga’s draw includes his countryman Julien Benneteau, although Benneteau isn’t in great form this year.
The Rankings
Last year, winning the title at Indian Wells truly told the world that Rafael Nadal was back. This year, it’s not going to make any difference — despite having the title to defend, Nadal is safe at #1. It’s going to make a lot more difference in the #5 to #8 range, because #7 Juan Martin del Potro was last year’s finalist. Novak Djokovic and Tomas Berdych were semifinalists; Andy Murry, Roger Federer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Kevin Anderson were quarterfinalists. Of the others in the Top Ten, Stanislas Wawrinka lost in the Round of Sixteen, as did Richard Gasquet; David Ferrer lost his opener.
In addition to Nadal being assured of staying #1, we know that Novak Djokovic will remain #2. Stanislas Wawrinka isn’t guaranteed to remain #3 — but, with Ferrer out, Wawrinka has a lead of more than 800 points on Andy Murray, the next active player. The only way Wawrinka can lose the #3 spot is if Murray wins Indian Wells and Wawrinka loses before the quarterfinal
Ferrer, at #4, is in more danger; Murray could pass him with a final, or Tomas Berdych, Roger Federer, or Juan Martin del Potro with a title. At least Ferrer is just about guaranteed to stay Top Five.
As has been true for much of the year, there is a huge gap between #8 and #9 — so large that even a title here can’t cross it. So the real contest is between Murray, Berdych, Federer, and del Potro for the #5-#8 spots. Murray has a lead of 175 points on Berdych, meaning that Berdych needs at least a semifinal to stay #5; Federer is another 85 points behind Berdych, and Del Potro, with all those points to defend, is another 175 points off the pace — and hurt. We can’t really guess the order those guys will end up in.
Richard Gasquet has about a 250 point lead on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the contest for the #9 ranking, so he seems sure in practice to stay Top Ten. Tsonga, with a 200 point lead on #11 Milos Raonic, also looks pretty solid but far from guaranteed.
Interestingly, the players from #9 to #17 are in exactly the same order in safe points as in the rankings coming in. The first change is at #18; Kevin Anderson’s #18 ranking is under threat because of all those points he has to defend. But he is still in the Top Twenty in safe points; we may see surprisingly little movement this week.
Estimated ATP World Tour Rankings
As of March 4, 2013
Rank &
Prior…Player………..Points
1..(1) Nadal………….13095
2..(2) Djokovic………..9910
3..(3) Wawrinka………..5570
4..(4) Ferrer………….5150
5..(6) Murray………….4715
6..(5) Berdych…………4540
7..(8) Federer…………4455
8..(7) Del Potro……….4280
9..(9) Gasquet…………2870
10.(10) Tsonga………….2615
11.(11) Raonic………….2405
12.(12) Haas……………2355
13.(13) Isner…………..2320
14.(14) Fognini…………2215
15.(15) Youzhny…………2145
16.(16) Dimitrov………..2095
17.(17) Robredo…………2005
18.(19) Almagro…………1805
19.(18) Anderson………..1770
20.(20) Janowicz………..1715
21.(21) Nishikori……….1680
22.(22) Gulbis………….1536
23.(24) Kohlschreiber……1510
24.(25) Monfils…………1485
24.(23) Simon…………..1485
26.(26) Cilic…………..1420
27.(27) Pospisil………..1343
28.(28) Paire…………..1240
29.(30) Tursunov………..1212
30.(29) Mayer…………..1210
**DRAWS
Indian Wells — week of March 3, 2014
1 Nadal
–bye
Stepanek
Istomin
Smyczek
Sock (WC)
–bye
28 Dolgopolov
23 Monfils
–bye
Stakhovsky
Kubot
Golubev
Harrison (WC)
–bye
13 Fognini
10 Raonic
–bye
Becker
Roger-Vasselin
Falla
Delbonis
–bye
18 Janowicz
32 Andujar
–bye
Vesely
Sijsling
Qualifier
Rosol
–bye
5 Murray
3 Wawrinka
–bye
Karlovic
Bogomolov
Qualifier
Querrey
–bye
29 Seppi
17 Anderson
–bye
Hewitt
Ebden
Russell
Young
–bye
14 Youzhny
11 Haas
–bye
Chardy
Williams (WC)
Gimeno-Traver
Giraldo
–bye
19 Nishikori
27 Tursunov
–bye
Monaco
Qualifier
Qualifier
Qualifier
–bye
7 Federer
8 Gasquet
–bye
Mahut
Gabashvili
Zeballos
R Ram (WC)
–bye
30 Verdasco
22 Kohlschreiber
–bye
Kamke
Lu
Przysiezny
Davydenko
–bye
12 Isner
15 Dimitrov
–bye
Haase
Qualifier
Nedovyesov
Sousa
–bye
20 Gulbis
26 F Mayer
–bye
Brands
Nieminen
Bautista Agut
Johnson (WC)
–bye
4 Berdych
6 del Potro
–bye
Lopez
Sela
Kukushkin
Qualifier
–bye
25 Pospisil
21 Simon
–bye
Qualifier
Qualifier
Benneteau
Qualifier
–bye
9 Tsonga
16 Robredo
–bye
Klahn
Matosevic
Carreno Busta
Qualifier
–bye
24 Cilic
31 Dodig
–bye
A Gonzalez
Mannarino
Hanescu
Qualifier
–bye
2 Djokovic
Topics: 10sballs, Andy Murray, Atp, Benoit Paire, David Ferrer, Ernests Gulbis, Fernando Verdasco, Florian Mayer, Gael Monfils, Indian Wells, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, John Isner, Juan Martin Del Potro, Juan Monaco, Kevin Anderson, Lleyton Hewitt, Mikhail Youzhny, milos raonic, Nicolas Almagro, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Richard Gasquet, Roger Federer, Sam Querrey, Sports, Stanislas Wawrinka, Tennis, Tomas Berdych, Tommy Haas
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Indian Wells, A Subjective Look @ The Men’s Draw- http://t.co/kXzD5ZLjyZ #IndianWells #tennis #results