Canadian Open
Singles – Semifinal: (4) R Nadal def. (1) N Djokovic 6-4 3-6 7-6(7-2)
It was a typical Djokovic/Nadal match — in other words, way too long between points. Especially for that time of night. Nadal actually got a warning during a crazy match that featured scoreline confusion and much more. Including Nadal blowing two break points in game eight of the third set. He did better in the tiebreak, winning the first two points on the Djokovic serve. He was #3 win or lose, as Djokovic was #1 win or lose, but this makes it a much stronger #3.
Singles – Semifinal: (11) M Raonic def. (WC) V Pospisil 4-6 6-1 7-6(7-4)
We confess: We expected a lousy match, with Vasek Pospisil surely bound to get nervous. Talk about wrong! He outperformed Milos Raonic in everything — points won, aces, break points, breaks, name it. There were only three breaks in the match, and Pospisil had two of them. Little wonder the match took two and a quarter hours. But Pospisil had most of his best stuff in short stretches, and the third set tiebreak was not one of those stretches. He lost his first two service points — and then won the next two on Milos Raonic’s. The two exchanged two more minibreaks in the next four points, but Raonic also won the tenth point, and the eleventh, and it was finally over. Raonic posts his best-ever result, and in consequence will hit a career-high #10. Pospisil is also at a career high, but it’s just below #40.
Doubles – Semifinal: (3) Peya/Soares def. Fyrstenberg/Matkowski 6-2 7-6(7-3)
It really, really feels as if Peya/Soares will be the #2 seeds at the U. S. Open. And the #2 team at year-end. Indeed, it looks as if they’ll make it there this week.
Doubles – Semifinal: Fleming/A Murray def. (6) Lindstedt/Nestor 6-3 6-0
More evidence that Daniel Nestor is finally getting old — and that Andy Murray has plenty of potential in doubles if he ever decides to exercise it.
Men’s Look Forward: Cincinnati
So close. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is missing (for the second straight week). Were it not for that, the entire Top Fifteen would be in Cincinnati. Roger Federer is back, and other than Tsonga, the only top player missing is Marin Cilic.
In other words, it’s quite a draw. Novak Djokovic will be #1, with Andy Murray #2. David Ferrer is #3 even though his ranking has fallen to #4; Rafael Nadal has the #4 seed. Federer is #5 and in Nadal’s quarter; Tomas Berdych is #6 and in Murray’s; Juan Martin del Potro is #7 and in Ferrer’s. The #8 seed, and the last bye, and the chance to face Djokovic in the quarterfinal (for the second straight week) all belong to Richard Gasquet. This even though he is now ranked behind #9 seed Stanislas Wawrinka and even behind Milos Raonic. Rounding out the seeds are #10 Kei Nishikori, #11 Tommy Haas, #12 Raonic, #13 Nicolas Almagro, #14 Fabio Fognini, #15 Gilles Simon, and #15 Jerzy Janowicz.
As usual at a Masters, most of the seeds will be challenged. Djokovic will start against Juan Monaco or Jurgen Melzer. Simon will start against Vasek Pospisil, who earns the rare distinction of being a Special Exempt at a Masters. Raonic is lucky enough to open against wildcard Jack Sock, but then would come either Janko Tipsarevic or Sam Querrey, both of whom just missed seeding. Gasquet’s first opponent is likely to be John Isner, who also was close to the seeding cutoff. Ferrer is likely to start against Alexandr Dolgopolov. These days, James Blake may not be much threat to Janowicz, but the big Pole will then face Martin Klizan. Nishikori, who already blew a big chance to hit the Top Ten, will open against Feliciano Lopez, then probably Jeremy Chardy. Del Potro is likely to face Benoit Paire. Federer will start against either Philipp Kohlschreiber — a tough assignment for a guy who is a little off — or Mardy Fish. Haas will be greeted by Kevin Anderson (another guy who just missed seeding), then Lukas Rosol or Marcel Granollers. Almagro’s first opponent will be Grigor Dimitrov, then just possibly wildcard Brian Baker, finally making his comeback. (There are a lot of comebacks going on here: Fish, Baker, Querrey in a small way….) Wawrinka starts against Andreas Seppi, and Fognini against Radek Stepanek. As for Murray — he will face either Ernests Gulbis or Mikhail Youzhny. And he knows how tough Gulbis can be after last week!
The Rankings
You’re probably well aware that Roger Federer won Cincinnati last year; it marked the end of his big spring and summer run that took him back to #1. That means trouble this year; his lead over Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin del Potro is less than a thousand points. And Berdych lost in the Round of Sixteen last year, although del Potro made the semifinal. That means that Federer trails Berdych in safe points, and has a relatively small lead over del Potro. So he could well fall to #6 — or even #7.
The finalist at Cincinnati was Novak Djokovic; Stanislas Wawrinka was the other semifinalist; Mardy Fish, Milos Raonic, Jeremy Chardy, and the absent Marin Cilic were quarterfinalists.
That means that Wawrinka’s Top Ten spot and Cilic’s Top Twenty spot are in some danger, and we hate to think where Fish will be. But Djokovic will be safe at #1. #2 is creeping toward being interesting; Nadal might have a shot at it if he wins the Canadian Open (this is written before his semifinal), and will definitely have a shot at it at the U. S. Open. But David Ferrer still could overtake Nadal this week.
No matter what, Djokovic, Murray, Nadal, and Ferrer will be the top four U. S. Open seeds. #5-#8 will include Federer, Berdych, and Del Potro. Tsonga will probably be #8, but it’s possible that that could change. We’d guess #9-#12 will be Wawrinka, Gasquet, Nishikori, and Raonic. Below that, anything could happen, but Haas, Janowicz, Almagro, Fognini, Simon, Cilic, Anderson, Tipsarevic, Isner, Seppi, Robredo, Paire, Youzhny, Kohlschreiber, Lopez, Querrey, and Dimitrov look certain of seeding. The last few spots are truly wide-open.
RANKINGS
Estimated ATP World Tour Rankings
As of August 10, 2013
Rank &
Prior…Player………..Points
1..(1) Djokovic……….11400
2..(2) Murray………….8610
3..(4) Nadal…………..7460
4..(3) Ferrer………….7130
5..(5) Federer…………5515
6..(6) Berdych…………4865
7..(7) Del Potro……….4740
8..(8) Tsonga………….3470
9.(10) Wawrinka………..2925
10.(13) Raonic………….2645
11..(9) Gasquet…………2625
12.(11) Nishikori……….2485
13.(12) Haas……………2140
14.(18) Janowicz………..2116
15.(14) Almagro…………2100
16.(16) Fognini…………2050
17.(17) Simon…………..2030
18.(15) Cilic…………..1985
19.(21) Anderson………..1740
20.(19) Tipsarevic………1650
22.(20) Isner…………..1585
22.(23) Seppi…………..1585
23.(22) Robredo…………1570
24.(27) Paire…………..1450
25.(25) Youzhny…………1440
26.(24) Kohlschreiber……1410
27.(29) Lopez…………..1355
28.(26) Querrey…………1345
29.(31) Dimitrov………..1305
30.(28) Chardy………….1281
DRAWS
Canadian Open — Week of August 5
…………….3R……………QF………..SF…………..F
1 Djokovic……(1)Djokovic……Djokovic…..Djokovic
16 Tipsarevic…Istomin
9 Nishikori…..(9)Nishikori
7 Gasquet…….(7)Gasquet…….Gasquet
4 Nadal………(4)Nadal………Nadal……..Nadal……….Nadal
15 Janowicz…..(15)Janowicz
10 Haas………Matosevic(Q)…..Matosevic
8 Wawrinka……Paire
5 Berdych…….(5)Berdych
12 Almagro……Pospisil(WC)…..Pospisil…..Pospisil
14 Simon……..Davydenko……..Davydenko
3 Ferrer……..Bogomolov(Q)
6 Del Potro…..(6)del Potro
11 Raonic…….(11)Raonic…….Raonic…….Raonic…….Raonic
13 Fognini……Gulbis………..Gulbis
2 Murray……..(2)Murray
STATUS OF SEEDS:
1 Djokovic…….lost SF (Nadal)
2 Murray………lost 3R (Gulbis)
3 Ferrer………lost 2R (Bogomolov)
4 Nadal
5 Berdych……..lost 3R (Pospisil)
6 Del Potro……lost 3R (Raonic)
7 Gasquet……..lost QF (Djokovic)
8 Wawrinka…….lost 2R (Paire)
9 Nishikori……lost 3R (Gasquet)
10 Haas……….lost 2R (Matosevic)
11 Raonic
12 Almagro…….lost 1R (Stepanek)
13 Fognini…….lost 2R (Gulbis)
14 Simon………lost 1R (Davydenko)
15 Janowicz……lost 3R (Nadal)
16 Tipsarevic….lost 1R (Istomin)
Cincinnati — Week of August 12
1 Djokovic
–bye
Monaco
Melzer
Qualifier
Qualifier
Pospisil (SE)
16 Simon
12 Raonic
Sock (WC)
Tipsarevic
Querrey
F Mayer
Isner
–bye
8 Gasquet
3 Ferrer
–bye
R Harrison (WC)
Dolgopolov
Qualifier
Klizan
Blake (WC)
16 Janowicz
10 Nishikori
Lopez
Chardy
Qualifier
Paire
Davydenko
–bye
7 del Potro
5 Federer
–bye
Kohlschreiber
Fish
Granollers
Rosol
Anderson
11 Haas
13 Almagro
Dimitrov
B Baker (WC)
Istomin
Qualifier
Qualifier
–bye
4 Nadal
5 Berdych
–bye
Qualifier
Nieminen
Robredo
Bellucci
Seppi
9 Wawrinka
14 Fognini
Stepanek
Benneteau
Baghdatis
Gulbis
Youzhny
–bye
2 Murray
SATURDAY
Canadian Open
Singles – Semifinal
(4) R Nadal def. (1) N Djokovic 6-4 3-6 7-6(7-2)
(11) M Raonic def. (WC) V Pospisil 4-6 6-1 7-6(7-4)
Doubles – Semifinal
(3) Peya/Soares def. Fyrstenberg/Matkowski 6-2 7-6(7-3)
Fleming/A Murray def. (6) Lindstedt/Nestor 6-3 6-0