The State of the Game – Part VII Federer vs Murray – They Broke the Mold!

Written by: Tennischiro on 4th March 2012

The State of the Game - Part VII Federer vs Murray - They Broke the Mold!

Roger Federer of Switzerland returns to Bernard Tomic of Australia in their fourth round match at Rod Laver Arena during the Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne, Australia, 22 January 2012. EPA/JOE CASTRO AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND OUT |

It was a great showing for Federer, winning the Dubai final in straight sets against a seemingly streaking Andy Murray, just having knocked off Djokovic in straight sets in the semis. We want to look at that match a couple of different ways, first the incidental details and then the big picture.

As for the incidental details, they both took really good care of their serves. In fact through his first 5 service games, Murray gave up just 8 points to Federer. He struggled just a bit getting out of the gate in the first game letting Federer get him to deuce with 3 errors, but then he settled down and held routinely. He had 4 aces and at least as many service winners (the statisticians are probably more generous than I am). Federer was doing almost as well losing just 10 points on serve before he served the set out at 15 in the last game (and that lost point was a double fault at 40-0). But Federer did face the first break points at 2-3, 40-15 and Murray failed to convert despite the fact that he got to see 2 second serves.

That was one of the main themes through the match; Murray was having a lot of trouble with Federer’s second serve. Andy saw 16 second serves from Federer in that first set (not counting the double fault) and was only able to win 4 of those points. That’s way below his average 59% winning ratio on 2nd serves coming into the Dubai tournament this year (More on ATP Match facts in a final chapter to my series here on “The State of the Game”). In the second set, Murray did a little better in this stat, but he was still way below his average winning on just 6 of the 14 second set second serves he got to take a swipe at (again, one additional point on a double fault, and that one cost Fed).

The other tactical insight I took away from trying to watch this match a little more carefully was how much damage Federer does with that slice backhand he uses defensively. Today, it was amazing how much trouble Murray had with Federer’s slice. I still feel there is plenty of room for the Rosewallian slice in the game and actually think a complete player needs both, but after watching and charting Roger’s matches with Murray and Del Potro carefully the last few weeks, I see better how much he messes them up with that slice. In the Forum on the Tennisplayer.net site, I have argued strenuously that Rosewall’s flatter, more penetrating slice would have been very effective today if anyone knew how to hit it (they don’t!). The prevailing sentiment today seems to be a much more downward chopping slice like Federer’s is necessary to deal with the heavy topspin that simply didn’t exist in the game in Rosewall’s day. I don’t happen to agree, but Federer’s matches with both Del Potro and Murray were wonderful examples of how that shot completely messes up his opponent’s rhythm. At one point I almost got the sense Murray was more comfortable hitting to Fed’s forehand. He was just shanking off Federer’s slice. I expected to see a lot more patience from him, but Federer didn’t really allow him to get into many long rallies; he was attacking as soon as he had any chance. Murray never seemed to get comfortable on the baseline. It was such a complete change from yesterday with Novak.

In any case, Federer got out of his predicament at 15-40 in that sixth game of the match with the help of a couple of errors from Murray and then a service winner and a volley winner. After that, Federer never looked back. But they were on serve and Murray was looking really strong on his service games. Then, he started off the 11th game with a DF, a backhand error and Fed forced him into a forehand error for 0-40. Federer got a second serve there, but he missed a backhand. Murray got it back to deuce with a service winner and a backhand volley winner. Then he gave Fed another chance missing the first serve and making a backhand error. He gives Fed another chance at a second serve but the Maestro misses a forehand. About this time, many of Roger’s fans are thinking about all the times they’ve seen him fail to break serve against Nadal at the French; at least, I was thinking about that! We know that if Murray survives this game, he will be nails at 5-6. To his credit, Murray made his first serves here, but Fed drew a backhand error from him on the second deuce and then forced him into a backhand volley error on a near pass for the break.

Roger didn’t waste any time: Ace, backhand volley winner and service winner for 40-0. He did let up for just a second with a DF and a missed first serve at 40-15, but Murray let him off the hook with a backhand error for the first set.

The old, pre-Lendl Murray, might have been a little upset with himself, but this one didn’t show any signs of it. He settled right in topping his first service game off with an ace. But Fed didn’t allow him to catch his breath holding quickly with four first serves, putting the Scot right back on the hot seat. That was the thing about the whole match. You never got the feeling Murray was comfortable. He had looked so calm and unflappable against Djokovic the day before, but he could not find any comfortable position on the court against Federer. I expected Murray’s superior shot tolerance to be a problem for Roger, but Roger was coming forward when he got the chance, throwing Murray’s timing off with his slice backhands and even attacking down the line with his topspin backhand on occasion; on top of that, while his first serve percentage was a little low, he won 2/3 of his second serve points for the match (and that was with the 2 DFs). It was really a masterful performance for Federer.

At 1-1, the pressure seemed to get to Murray just a bit. He made just one first serve and Federer took advantage of the opportunities, taking control of the point and making a couple of forehand winners to get him to 15-40. Then another second serve and a backhand error from Murray. If you look through my chart, you’ll see a lot of backhand errors. That backhand is supposed to be Murray’s rock. It wasn’t yesterday.

Federer served another love game to go up 1-3 and it looked for a moment like the Swiss might run the table. He might have with “old Murray”. But Andy answered with a love hold of his own. Then Fed allowed Murray to get to 15-30 with a DF and an unforced forehand error. Fed got one point back with his reliable serve-plus-forehand that has won him those 16 majors. 30-30. Murray hung in there making the attack and getting the break point with a forehand volley winner. Federer attacked the net but Murray made not one but two beautiful lobs up to the backhand side to draw the error off Fed’s backhand overhead. They were back on serve.

Murray struggled a little in the 3-3 game missing four first serves and making a DF; but of the four serves he made two were aces in the 130s, including the one to make the score 3-4. Murray had held in the critical seventh game and Federer fans’ hearts everywhere were racing. But we needn’t have been concerned. While Federer was missing his first serve, the second serve was very effective and Andy got just one point in four chances at Roger’s second serve. 4-4.

You could almost sense the moment had arrived. Would Roger step up and break the world #4 and stop him cold in his tracks in his assault on his own #3 position? Well, yes he would. He started right off with a winner return off a Murray first serve for 0-15. Murray made the next two first serves but Federer really just wrested the points away from him to go up 0-40. Again multiple break chances. And again we squirmed as Roger missed a forehand return on a second serve. But he got another second serve at 15-40 and Andy gave him a backhand error. It seemed that the pressure was just too much for the Dunblane native. (I often wonder if any pressure can seem significant to someone who survived the Dunblane massacre as Andy did. Yes, he was in school that day 16 years ago!)

Set and 5-4. All that was left was for Federer to do what he had done so many times before. Fed made his first serves in the deuce court and won those points three times, but three times he allowed Andy to see a second serve in the ad court and each time the Scot leveled the score, drawing forehand errors from Roger. Roger failed to make another first serve after the fifth point of the game, but he finished it off with two beautiful inside out forehand winners. 7-5, 6-4 Federer.

Well, that certainly more than covers the details. In a broader sense, Roger is playing very well and attacking more than ever. He is going after the topspin backhand more often and even seems to be settling down again with less unforced errors off his forehand. His second serve seems to have more juice and has been really effective. He’s ready to make an attack on Rafa and Nole in the coming weeks. At the same time, Murray showed he can deal with Djokovic and his temperament has really improved. His good behavior and attitude at the Australian seems to be more than a “one off”. I fully expect him to get better and better through the year as he gets more comfortable with this strategy of playing the ball earlier. And after he gets some practice against someone with a good slice backhand! But he’s going to be fine. Just compare this to how he looked this time last year after the loss he took in the Aussie finals. He fell out of the conversation for months. Now he is definitely on the ascendancy.

Excuse me for taking so long here. I’ll be brief. I’ll wrap up tomorrow in one more installment to “The State of the Game” to cover Acapulco and Delray Beach as well as to present the little analytical comparison I made using the ATP Match facts. I’ll have more tomorrow, but “State of the Game” is just fine.

To put it succinctly, the “State of the Game” is great because Roger Federer has won 5 tournament finals since October 31 of last year. We could deal with a loss to Rafa in the Australian, but when he lost to Isner in Davis Cup, we were concerned it was the beginning of the end. We need Roger to be around to challenge Nole and Rafa. He showed in the last few weeks that he is still there right in the thick of things and is not going away any time soon. As a person in the tennis industry, I know we need him for the interest and positive attention he brings to the game. As an individual fan and player and coach, I cheer for him because I want to see his style succeed and be propagated by someone I have not yet seen, even as I despair there is no one coming up that is anything like him. Of course, that is a lot to expect of anyone, but it sure seems like they broke the mold.

10sChiro