TennisChiro Breaks down the Men’s Round of 16 – Australian Open 2012

Written by: Tennischiro on 21st January 2012

TennisChiro Breaks down the Men's Round of 16 - Australian Open 2012

Spain's Rafael Nadal in action during his third round match against Lukas Lacko of Slovakia at the Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne, Australia, 20 January 2012. EPA/JOE CASTRO AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND OUT |

It’s not as clear as at Wimbledon or the US Open, but the second week really starts with the round of 16 and at this point you can really see how the tournament is shaping up. Wimbledon doesn’t play on the middle Sunday and makes up for it with the massive middle Monday when they play all the round of 16 matches. The US Open doesn’t afford the players a day off between semis and finals and pushes everything back a little wrapping up women’s and men’s quarters on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. But the Australian Open, especially with the two primary courts having sliding roofs, offers the players a full day of rest between rounds. On top of that, if is already Sunday down under.

So let’s take a broader look at what has happened.

On the men’s side, out of the top 11 seeds only #8 & #9, Fish and Tipsarevic, failed to make the round of 16; unfortunately, they were two of my picks to make the quarterfinals

You can see my complete list of picks from last week for the quarters, semis and finals by loading the following into your browser:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/809/spicks2012001.jpg/

Amazingly, none of the remaining top 16 (numbers 12, 13, 14, 15 & 16) made it to the round of 16. Nevertheless, there are no soft pathways into the quarterfinals without getting past one of the top players. Philip Kohlschreiber will have to go through a cruising #11 Juan Martin del Potro (he has won 9 sets in a row without going to a TB) to get to Fish’s spot in the quarters. The other pretenders to the “Last Eight” (A great special club at Wimbledon for players who have reached the quarters of the singles there. I don’t know if they have the same thing at the Australian, but I suspect they do.) will have to go through one of the top 7 players in the world. In my view, Gasquet and Almagro are the only ones who have a good chance to do that.

Let’s run down the draw one by one in the round of 16:
Djokovic/Hewitt – this could really be embarrassing for Leyton in front of the home crowd. I think he will be lucky to hold serve twice a set. I’d place the over/under at 7 games.

Gasquet/Ferrer – Ferrer is playing well, as usual. He came into the tournament winning Auckland and is a favorite against Gasquet. But he won’t beat Djokovic in the quarters. Gasquet, on the other hand, is capable of going to a higher level than Ferrer, even if he can’t maintain it for as long. If that happens, he certainly could upset Ferrer and even pose a legitimate challenge for Djokovic. I’d give him a 1/5 chance against Ferrer and probably less than 1/10 chance against Novak. Still, it should be fun to watch his shotmaking.

Murray/Kukuskin – Monfils played hurt and prompted the commentators to actually wish for the world’s greatest display of athleticism in tennis to default; still he pushed Kukushkin to 4-4 in the fifth. Kukushkin just doesn’t belong in the last 16 of a Slam. At least not the player he was against Monfils. On the other hand, Murray kept me up till 2AM this morning watching him dismantle Michael Llodra. Oh, for more practitioners of serve-and-volley tennis like Llodra. Murray is playing at an unbelievable level and I feel even better about picking him to win the whole thing. He is playing the ball early and moving forward into the court much more than I remember in the past. It is fabulous to see such a big man moving around the court with the specific, nimble footwork of an Andre Agassi. I don’t think I have ever seen a big man do this so well. This is what set Andre apart from all his contemporaries. His footwork set him up to be able to play the ball early and aggressively and become “The Punisher”. Watch Murray’s footwork and balance. NO. He is not as fluid as Roger, but he is actually in better position and much more consistent from both sides than Federer. And while the forehand is certainly not as strong, it is much more consistent and the backhand is a huge weapon. On top of that, on more than one occasion last night, he got out of break point situations with 134 mph first serves. His demeanor on the court is actually improved since his collaboration with Lendl. It’s much more fun to watch him play. No one covers more court; well, maybe Monfils, but not as effectively.

Tsonga/Nishikori – Yes, Nishikori had a recent win over Tsonga, but Jo-Wilfred seems to be morphing into the top player many of us have thought he could become. He is moving through the draw silently and easily, dropping just one set in his first round before sweeping his next two opponents aside with the loss of just 16 games in 6 sets and no TB’s. If he plays his best, Tsonga is a problem for anyone. Nishikori’s speed is the perfect antidote for Tsonga’s power, but I just don’t see it happening here.

Kohlschreiber/Del Potro – Another interesting match that should go according to form. But it is interesting because Kohlschreiber is playing well and moves much better than Juan Martin. Nevertheless, I think Del Potro is beginning to recapture his 2009 form and his power will be just too much for Kohlschreiber.

Federer/Tomic – Hewitt may steal a little of Tomic’s thunder with the some sentimental old Aussies, but Tomic is the real story for Aussie tennis fans this tournament. He seems to have the intestinal fortitude to handle the hometown pressure that will fall upon his broad, 6′ 5″ frame. He is the future for them. He has added three marquee wins to his resume dismissing Verdasco, Querry and Dolgopolov, but Roger is well rested and probably has recovered sufficiently from his back problems to handle this challenge. I’m not convinced he’s recovered enough to handle Murray or Djokovic, but I think he will rise to this occasion just fine. Again, this will be another fun match to watch and see how Roger deals with Tomic’s slice and his other interesting assortment of weapons.

Berdych/Almagro – I think Berdych grew from his experience at the end of 2011 and I expect him to challenge this year for a spot in the top 4 or 5. When he is good, he is very, very good. If possible, perhaps even more power than Tsonga, but I don’t think he serves quite as well. Almagro, on the other hand, is another under the radar, under-rated top ten player. Yes, he is in the top 10! He’s been tested already in the second round by Dimitrov and dispatched Wawrinka in a convincing 3-set rout. He’s much more mobile than Berdych (and will have to be!) and while he is not as powerful as the taller Czech, he still brings plenty of 130 mph serves to the match. Damn, it’s tough to watch all these matches at once! I don’t have cable so I can’t get the regular Aussie feed online and I’ve had to watch them on LiveScoreHunter.com.

Lopez/Nadal – Unless Nadal’s knee is a lot worse than his play seems to show, there is no way for his buddy, Feliciano to knock him out before the quarters tonight. Possible, but very unlikely. On the other hand, while everyone is talking about the bigger hitting Nadal, I don’t see it. His forehands are still landing too short and he hasn’t changed the service motion. His average first serve is under 110 mph and his average second serve is just over 80 mph. That’s not going to cut it with Berdych, much less Murray or Djokovic. He’s in for a rough year against the big guys.

I’ve got to make a run to the gym before the matches start later this afternoon, but I’ll have a little more about the ladies if you check back later.

TennisChiro

Topics: Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer