RICKY DIMON TAKES AN EARLY LOOK AT WHAT COULD BE A SURPRISING RACE TO LONDON FOR THE 2016 TENNIS YEAR END FINALS AT THE 02 ARENA

Written by: Staff on 2nd March 2016

RICKY DIMON TAKES AN EARLY LOOK AT WHAT COULD BE A SURPRISING RACE TO LONDON FOR THE 2016 TENNIS YEAR END FINALS AT THE 02 ARENA

epa03938292 Spain's Rafael Nadal returns the ball against Switzerland's Stanislas Wawrinka during their group A singles match in the round robin stage on the third day at Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in the O2 Arena in London, Britain, 06 November 2013. EPA/FACUNDO ARRIZABALAGA |

Rafael Nadal’s 2016 campaign includes a blowout loss to Novak Djokovic in Doha, a first-round exit at the hands of Fernando Verdasco at the Australian Open, and surprising clay-court setbacks against Dominic Thiem and Pablo Cuevas. But there is at least some semblance of positive news for Nadal: the 2016 Barclays ATP World Tour Finals do not begin this week.

But what if they did?

Nadal, of course, would not make it. In fact, he would not even come close to making it. Kei Nishikori, David Ferrer, and Tomas Berdych would also be on the outside looking in. Only half of 2015’s eight-man contingent would be the same, as Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, and Roger Federer are currently within the cut line. Federer is right on the number at No. 8 in the race to London, but he is certain to slip from the eighth spot–and even outside the top 10–after he skips Indian Wells and Miami.

Dominic Thiem of Austria plays a shot against David Goffin of Belgium during their third round match on day five of the Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne, Australia, 22 January 2016. EPA/JOE CASTRO

Newcomers to the World Tour Finals field would be Dominic Thiem, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Pablo Cuevas, while Milos Raonic would make his second appearance at the year-end championship on the heels of his debut in 2014. Thiem, Bautista Agut, and Cuevas have all captured two titles already this year. Djokovic and Wawrinka have done the same. Murray placed runner-up at the Australian Open, Raonic lifted the Brisbane trophy and reached the Aussie Open semis, and Federer advanced to the Brisbane title match prior to his semifinal showing in Melbourne.

Djokovic is No. 1 in the race ahead of Murray, Thiem, and Wawrinka. Raonic rounds out the top five, with Bautista Agut, Cuevas, and Federer hot on his trail.

Nishikori and Ferrer are not far behind at ninth and 10th in the race, respectively. Recent Acapulco finalist Bernard Tomic is No. 11, while Rotterdam runner-up Gael Monfils is No. 12. You have to delve a little bit further down the list to find No. 13 Berdych (No. 13), No. 14 Viktor Troicki, No. 15 Martin Klizan, and No. 16 Sam Querrey.

A red-hot but injury-plagued Nick Kyrgios is 17th, Grigor Dimitrov is 18th, Guido Pella is 19th, and Taylor Fritz is 20th before Nadal comes in at No. 21. Marcos Baghdatis, Marin Cilic, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Philipp Kohlschreiber also find themselves in the top 25.

To say it is too early panic for anyone outside the top eight, however, would be a gross understatement. Players have eight more months, three more Grand Slams, all nine Masters 1000 events, and the Olympics with which to make up ground.