10SBALLS SHARES RICKY’S PREVIEW & PREDICTIONS FOR THE INTERNAZIONALI BNL D’ITALIA • ROME • ATP TENNIS

Written by: Staff on 14th May 2017

10SBALLS SHARES RICKY'S PREVIEW & PREDICTIONS FOR THE INTERNAZIONALI BNL D'ITALIA • ROME • ATP TENNIS

epa05304150 A general view during the quarter final match between Serbian Novak Djokovic and Spanish Rafael Nadal at the Italian Open Tennis Tournament at the Foro Italico in Rome, Italy, 13 May 2016. EPA/CLAUDIO ONORATI |

By Ricky Dimon

Madrid finalists Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem have already enjoyed massively productive clay-court seasons. And although they could use some additional rest before the French Open, cooler heads will likely prevail and both will almost certainly suit up for this week’s Internazionali BNL d’Italia in Rome. Clay, of course, is by far the favorite surface of both men and neither one can afford to pass up another opportunity to gain 1000 points. If Nadal wins Madrid, Rome, and Roland Garros, he would build an almost insurmountable lead in the race to the year-end No. 1 ranking. If Thiem turns in another huge result, he would clinch a top eight seed for the French Open and Wimbledon and remain on course for a second consecutive appearance in the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals.

Nadal and Thiem are joined in another impressive Masters 1000 field by Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Juan Martin Del Potro, and David Goffin.

Internazionali BNL d’Italia

Where: Rome, Italy

Prize money: 4,273,775 Euros

Top seed: Andy Murray

Defending champion: Andy Murray

Draw analysis: It’s not often that a player who is the No. 1 seed and defending champion of an event can be a relative afterthought going in, but that is the case with Murray. The Scot is just 16-6 this year, 4-4 in his last eight matches, and 4-3 on clay. He may not last long in Rome, either. Murray has to kick off his campaign against Italy’s own Fabio Fognini and a potential showdown with an in-form Alexander Zverev looms in the third round. The rest of Murray’s section is underwhelming, so this is a big opportunity for Fognini or Zverev.

An intriguing first-rounder to watch in the top quarter features 39-year-old Tommy Haas and 38-year-old Ivo Karlovic.

Nadal, who could also open against an Italian (Andreas Seppi), has a similarly tough draw. The 14-time major champ is on a collision course with Jack Sock for the third round and Thiem—arguably the second best clay-courter on the planet right now—is a likely quarterfinal aversary. Sock has what will likely be a difficult opening date with Diego Schwartzman on his hands, while a Thiem vs. Pablo Cuevas second-round tilt would be a rematch of the Madrid semifinals.

A Nadal-Djokovic half of the draw is becoming a familiar sight and that is once again the case at the Rome Masters, where they could square off in another semifinal on the heels of Nadal’s 6-2, 6-4 Madrid success. If nothing else, a slumping Djokovic is at least well-rested and should be able to coast through his Rome opener against either Italian wild card Gianluca Mager or a qualifier. Nick Kyrgios is a possible third-round opponent, but the Australian is dealing with some injury concerns so a confident Pablo Carreno Busta may be more likely to advance. Carreno Busta, a recent clay-court champion in Estoril, fell to Djokovic 6-4 in the third in Monte-Carlo.

In the world No. 2’s quarter, the Grigor Dimitrov-Juan Martin Del Potro winner could go a long way because the other bye recipient in that quarter is an injured Kei Nishikori.

Like Djokovic, Wawrinka is one-time Roland Garros champion who is trying to find some form heading into the season’s second Gran Slam. The Swiss has struggled since finishing runner-up to Roger Federer in Indian Wells and he is coming off a second-round Madrid exit at the hands of good friend Benoit Paire. As luck would have it, Wawrinka’s Rome opener could also come against none other than Paire. An overall soft section of the bracket should have a red-hot Goffin poised for yet another impressive clay-court result.

First-round upset alert: Juan Martin Del Potro over (10) Grigor Dimitrov. In an effort to keep himself healthy and also because of his grandfather’s death, Del Potro has played just one clay-court match (he defeated Yuichi Sugita in Estoril before withdrawing). Dimitrov, meanwhile, has cooled off since starting the year 16-1 and he could have a tough time erasing the memory of having missed five match points against Thiem in the Madrid third round. Moreover, the Bulgarian is 0-4 in the head-to-head series against Del Potro–including 1-8 in total sets.

Quarterfinal picks: Alexander Zverev over Tomas Berdych, David Goffin over Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Rafael Nadal over Lucas Pouille, and Pablo Carreno Busta over Juan Martin Del Potro

Semifinal picks: Goffin over Zverev and Nadal over Carreno Busta

Final pick: Nadal over Goffin

Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on twitter at @Dimonator.

Topics: 10sballs.com, Internzionali BNL d'Italia, Ricky Dimon, Rome tennis, Sports, Tennis News

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