By Ricky Dimon
In the wake of a week featuring three 250-point events, the stars are back in action for the second of this year’s three clay-court Masters 1000 tournaments. Rafael Nadal is off to a perfect 10-0 start on the red dirt in 2017, with No. 10 titles in both Monte-Carlo and Barcelona. He is going for “only” his fifth title at the Mutua Madrid Open, where he is joined in an impressive field by Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, and Stan Wawrinka, just to name a few. Roger Federe is still taking a break and will do so at least until Roland Garros.
Ricky previews the upcoming week and makes his predictions.
Mutua Madrid Open
Points: 1000
Prize money: 5,439,350 Euros
Top seed: Andy Murray
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic
Draw analysis: How’s this for a potential road to the title match? Fabio Fognini, Nick Kyrgios, Milos Raonic, and Djokovic. That is what Nadal may have in front of him. And that trek could be even tougher in high altitude, where Kyrgios and Raonic should benefit. The Spaniard will open against Fognini, who beat Joao Sousa on Sunday, before possibly facing Kyrgios inround three and Raonic in the quarterfinals. Raonic, however, may have a tough test against David Goffin in the third round.
Perhaps nobody enjoyed this past Friday’s draw ceremony more than Djokovic, and that is just what the doctor ordered for the second seed following his split from his entire team—including coach Marian Vajda. In the softest quarter of the draw by far, Djokovic awaits what should be a routine opener against Tommy Robredo or Nicolas Almagro and his nearest seeds are Gael Monfils, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Kei Nishikori. Both Tsonga and Monfils have playedjust one match since the Indian Wells Masters and Nishikori has not played since Miami.
At the top of draw, Murray could get another crack at Dominic Thiem in the quarters. They recently squared off in the Barcelona semifinals, with Thiem getting the job done 6-2, 3-6, 6-4. Grigor Dimitrov, Roberto Bautista Agut, Richard Gasquet, or Budapest winner Lucas Pouille could play a part in preventing another Murray-Thiem showdown.
In the second quarter of the bracket, the pair of opening-round bye recipients may not last long in Madrid. Wawrinka’s second-rounder will likely come against Estoril champion Pablo Carreno Busta, while Istanbul champ Marin Cilic awaits either Fernando Verdasco or Munich winner Alexander Zverev. The semifinal spot from this section appears to be totally up in the air, and other contenders include Jack Sock, Tomas Berdych, and Pablo Cuevas.
First-round upset possibility: Gilles Simon over (15) Gael Monfils. These two Frenchmen famously—or perhaps “infamously”—played a 71-ball rally at the 2013 Australian Open. That point didn’t end well for Monfils and neither has much else when he has been forced to go up against Simon. The head-to-head series stands at 6-2 in favor of Simon, who survived that Aussie Open marathon 8-6 in the fifth and also defeated Monfils 6-4, 3-6, 6-0 in their only previous clay-court contest (Hamburg six years ago). Monfils had been sidelined by an Achilles’ injury since Indian Wells until he returned last week in Munich, where he dropped his opener to Hyeon Chung in straight sets.
Quarterfinal picks: Dominic Thiem over Andy Murray, Jack Sock over Marin Cilic, Rafael Nadal over David Goffin, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas over Gilles Simon
Semifinal picks: Thiem over Sock and Nadal over Ramos-Vinolas
Final pick: Nadal over Thiem
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