RICKY’S PREVIEW AND PREDICTION FOR THE BARCELONA FINAL: NADAL VS. THIEM

Written by: Staff on 29th April 2017

RICKY'S PREVIEW AND PREDICTION FOR THE BARCELONA FINAL: NADAL VS. THIEM

epa05935768 Rafael Nadal of Spain celebrates winning against Horacio Zeballos of Argentina during their semifinal match of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell, Trofeo Conde de Godo, in Barcelona, Spain, 29 April 2017. EPA/TONI ALBIR |

Ricky’s preview and prediction for the Barcelona final: Nadal vs. Thiem

By Ricky Dimon

The world No. 1 is out of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell, but arguably the two current best clay-courters in the game will be facing each other in Sunday’s title match. It will be Rafael Nadal vs. Dominic Thiem for the winner’s trophy after Thiem took down top-ranked Andy Murray in the semifinals.

Dominic Thiem of Austria returns the ball to Andy Murray of Britain during their semifinal match of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell, Trofeo Conde de Godo, in Barcelona, Spain, 29 April 2017. EPA/TONI ALBIR

The Austrian had previously been 0-2 against Murray, but he now owns victories at the expense of both Murray and Nadal. The head-to-head series with the latter stands at 2-1 in favor of Nadal and all three of their previous meetings have come on the red stuff. A 2013 Roland Garros encounter went Nadal’s way via a 6-2, 6-2, 6-3 decision and they split a pair of 2016 contests; Thiem scored a 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(4) upset in the Buenos Aires semis before Nadal prevailed 7-5, 6-3 in Monte-Carlo.

Given the relative struggles of Murray and Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer’s current clay-court absence, and the way Nadal and Thiem are playing on clay, this is a potential preview of a French Open semi or even final. Nadal, not surprisingly, is perfect on clay this year. The 14-time major champion triumphed in Monte-Carlo for a 10th time last week and so far in Barcelona he has coasted to wins over Rogerio Dutra Silva, Kevin Anderson, Hyeon Chung, and Horacio Zeballos all in straight sets.

Thiem in 2017 has, for the most part, been somewhere in between his 2016 pre-Wimbledon and post-Wimbledon self. It is good enough to be No. 4 in the race to the World Tour Finals even if he loses to Nadal and No. 3 if he wins. The world No. 9 is 23-9 for the year and 10-1 on the red stuff, including a title in Rio de Janeiro and victories this week over Kyle Edmund, Dan Evans, Yuichi Sugita, and Murray.

“It’s the first win (over a world No. 1), so it’s really something special,” Thiem assured. “But it’s also the first win over a top 10 guy this season. There are many positive things to take from today’s match. For me personally, it’s the best victory this year so far. I went down in the third set when he broke me in the first game. But the way I came back mentally was a huge step forward today.”

Rafael Nadal of Spain serves to Horacio Zeballos of Argentina during their semifinal match of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell, Trofeo Conde de Godo, in Barcelona, Spain, 29 April 2017. EPA/TONI ALBIR

“It’s not a surprise that Dominic is in the final,” Nadal noted. “He is one of the best in the world, and he loves clay. At the beginning of the tournament, he was already one of the main favorites to be in the final. He is a player with a lot of power. He imposes a lot on his shots, and if you let him be comfortable, it’s almost impossible to stop him.”

This is perfect Roland Garros preparation for Thiem regardless of the outcome, and he is one of the few players who has the clay-court game that can defeat Nadal even if Nadal plays well. But the 23-year-old struggled to maintain his best level for more than a set against Murray–who faded in a rocky third set for both players–and doing so for at least two sets against Nadal is even more difficult.

There are no secrets here: both men will look to dominate rallies with their forehands while pounding away at the other’s backhand. Thiem’s one-hander is more likely to break down first under the pressure of Nadal’s heavy topspin and lefty serve out wide.

Pick: Nadal in 3