There’s a tournament within a tournament this fortnight at the BNP Paribas Open. The bottom quarter of the Indian Wells draw is tougher by itself than the entirety of any 500-point event on the whole tennis calendar.It features Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Juan Martin Del Potro, Nick Kyrgios, and Alexander Zverev. Either Djokovic or Del Potro will fall prior to the fourth round and the same goes for Kyrgios and Zverev. Either Nadal or Federer will be eliminated before the quarterfinals get underway.

Djokovic vs. Del Potro in the third round would be a rematch of a recent Acapulco second-round showdown, won by the Serb in three sets. Nadal vs. Federer in the fourth round, of course, would be a rematch of the Australian Open final–which Federer won in five. Given that 2017’s first Grand Slam was played on a super-fast hard court (relatively speaking), slower conditions in the desert should be more advantageous to Nadal.

Speaking of advantages, at the other end of the luck spectrum are Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori, and Grigor Dimitrov, just to name some of the entrants who avoided the wrath of the draw. The top-seeded Murray is in a quarter that is also home to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, David Goffin, and Roberto Bautista Agut. Nishikori and Dimitrov find themselves in the softer section of a strong bottom half, where they will contend for a semifinal spot along with Marin Cilic and Jack Sock.

Seeds at risk of losing their opening matches:

(30) Feliciano Lopez: Frances Tiafoe (who will face Dusan Lajovic in round one on Thursday) played well in the desert last season, defeating Taylor Fritz before falling to Goffin in a third-set tiebreaker. The American teenager may go even further in 2017 at Lopez’s expense.

(22) Albert Ramos-Vinolas: How Ramos-Vinolas snuck all the way up the No. 22 seed at these festivities is one of the great mysteries of this event. But he may not stick around long. Both Ryan Harrison (Memphis champion and Dallas Challenger champion) and Damir Dzumhur (Memphis and Dubai quarterfinalist) are in impressive form.

(27) Pablo Cuevas: Cuevas is making a quick transition from his preferred clay-court surface to hard after lifting the Sao Paulo on Monday in Sao Paulo. Likely second-round foe Martin Klizan is talented but volatile. If the good Klizan shows up in Indian Wells, he should get the best of Cuevas on a hard court. If the bad Klizan shows up in Indian Wells, Cuevas’ second-round foe will be Thiago Monteiro.

(28) Philipp Kohlschreiber: Kohlschreiber has the misfortune of going up against whoever emerges from the best of all first-round tilts: Viktor Troicki vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov. A proven force in Indian Wells, Dolgopolov would be especially problematic for the German. And has Kohlschreiber recovered from squandering seven match points against Murray in Dubai?

(29) Mischa Zverev: Not too surprisingly, Zverev has been an unmitigated disaster since upsetting Murray to reach the Australian Open quarters. In fact, the veteran German has not won a single match since the best victory of his career (0-5). He would also prefer to meet either Joao Sousa or Diego Schwartzman on a faster court.

(32) Marcel Granollers: How is Granollers seeded at Masters 1000 tournament? Well, a whole lot of withdrawals ahead of him in the rankings–that’s how. He awaits the winner of one of the more intriguing first-round matchups: Nicolas Mahut vs. Malek Jaziri.

(6) Marin Cilic: Cilic should advance through his opening match, but neither Fritz nor Benoit Paire would be any kind of pushover. The Croat’s season has been disappointing at best up to this point.

Quarterfinal picks: Andy Murray over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Dominic Thiem over Tomas Berdych, Grigor Dimitrov over Lucas Pouille, and Rafael Nadal over Alexander Zverev

Semifinal picks: Murray over Thiem and Nadal over Dimitrov

Final pick: Nadal over Murray

Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on twitter at @Dimonator.