Nadal must be eager to avenge his Brisbane loss, but he almost did not get the opportunity. Alexander Zverev led the ninth-ranked Spaniard two sets to one in the third round but ended up going down 3-6, 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-2. Nadal endured a minor scare in thre next round against Gael Monfils but avoided another five-setter by battling back from a break down in the fourth to triumph 6-3, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4.

Raonic was not been perfect on serve in his last two outings like he was in his first two, but an improved baseline game has led to more than enough service breaks of his own. Following wins over Dustin Brown, Gilles Muller, and Gilles Simon, the Canadian broke Roberto Bautista Agut five times on Monday on the way to a 7-6(6), 3-6, 6-4, 6-1 victory.

In what is sure to be a competitive clash, Raonic’s superior ability to win free points on serve may be the difference. Nadal will undoubtedly have to win numerous pressure-packed baseline points on his own serve, and just one or two forehand mistakes at critical junctures could be decisive.

Pick: Raonic in 5

(11) David Goffin vs. (15) Grigor Dimitrov

Goffin and Dimitrov will be squaring off for just the second time in their careers at the ATP level but for the fifth time overall when they collide again during quarterfinal action. Dimitrov has taken all four of their previous meetings, but the first three came on the Futures and Challenger tours back in 2010. They most recently clashed at the 2014 U.S. Open, where Dimitrov bounced back from a rough start to win 0-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-1.

Fast forward more than two full seasons and Goffin is now an established force near the top of tennis. In fact, the 26-year-old Belgian could reach the top 10 for the first time next week even if he falls to Dimitrov. He punched a ticket to the last eight Down Under by beating Rielly Opelka (in five sets), Radek Stepanek, Ivo Karlovic, and Dominic Thiem. The 11th seed has surrendered only one set–his first against Thiem on Monday–since the round-one struggle with Opelka.

As good as Goffin has been over the past few years, nobody has been more impressive than Dimitrov in 2017. Maintaining momentum from a strong end to 2016, Dimitrov is a perfect 9-0 with a title in Brisbane. On his way to lifting that trophy, the 15th seed defeated Thiem, Milos Raonic, and Kei Nishikori. So far in Melbourne he has taken out Matthew O’Connell, Hyeon Chung, Richard Gasquet, and Denis Istomin.

Both players are in fine form right now, but a debut appearance in a major semifinal seems like it would be a natural progression for Goffin. Last year he advanced to back-to-back Masters 1000 semifinals in Indian Wells and Miami before storming into the French Open quarterfinals. His confidence and perhaps slightly stronger mental game could make the difference in what should be a very close match.

Pick: Goffin in 5