TENNIS NEWS – BNP PARIBAS MASTERS IN PARIS TO IMPACT NO. 1 RANKING AND DETERMINE LAST TWO SPOTS IN LONDON BARCLAYS 02

Written by: Staff on 31st October 2016

BNP Paribas 2015 Masters Tennis Tournament photo

TENNIS NEWS - BNP PARIBAS MASTERS IN PARIS TO IMPACT NO. 1 RANKING AND DETERMINE LAST TWO SPOTS IN LONDON BARCLAYS 02

epa05015552 Britain's Andy Murray reacts during his semifinal match against Spain's David Ferrer Britain's Andy Murray at the BNP Paribas 2015 Masters tennis tournament in Paris, France, 07 November 2015. EPA/ETIENNE LAURENT |

By Ricky Dimon

There could be a change at the top after this week’s BNP Paribas Masters in Paris. Yes, Andy Murray finally has a chance to become No. 1 in the world. Murray, who has captured the title at six of his last eight events, will surpass Novak Djokovic in the top spot if he wins Paris and defeats someone other than Djokovic in the title match. Murray will also accomplish the feat if he loses in the final and Djokovic does not advance to the semifinals. The last two places in the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals are also in play, likely to be decided by Dominic Thiem, Marin Cilic, Tomas Berdych, and David Goffin.

Ricky previews the tournament and makes his predictions:

Draw analysis

Croatia’s Marin Cilic in action against Russia’s Mikhail Youzhny during their first round match for the Swiss Indoors tennis tournament at the St. Jakobshalle in Basel, Switzerland, 24 October 2016. EPA/GEORGIOS KEFALAS

The top section of the Paris draw will play a big part in determining the No. 1 ranking and the last two London spots. Cilic and Goffin are in line for what could be a crucial third-round battle, with the winner likely to meet Djokovic in the quarterfinals. Goffin had been leading Cilic in the race the World Tour Finals until last week, when the Belgian got a tough draw in Basel and fell to Juan Martin Del Potro in the last 16. Goffin then had to watch Cilic ultimately take home the title. Cilic, though, may have to contest a Paris opener against fellow Croat Ivo Karlovic. Djokovic’s opener is likely to come against a confident Gilles Muller.

Murray and Berdych find themselves in the same quarter at the bottom of the bracket. That is, of course, good news for the Scot and bad news for the Czech. Then again, being near Murray may not even matter for Berdych because it is hard to see the Czech even making it to the quarterfinals. He has lost four matches in a row and will almost certainly run into consistent baseline grinders in each of his first two Paris matches (Joao Sousa in the last 32 and either Roberto Bautista Agut or Gilles Simon in round three). Murray, who is undefeated this fall with titles in Beijing, Shanghai, and Vienna, should roll over a struggling Fernando Verdasco before facing either Lucas Pouille or Feliciano Lopez.

The other two sections should be wide open. Stan Wawrinka and Dominic Thiem are the top two players in the second quarter of the draw and one of the other seeds is David Ferrer, who was plagued by an ankle injury in Vienna and gave Murray a walkover in the semis. Americans Jack Sock and John Isner could take advantage. Sock, who has been playing stellar tennis in both singles and doubles of late, may be able to derail Thiem’s London plans in round two.

Last week’s two runner-up finishers, Kei Nishikori (Basel) and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (Vienna), could face each other in the Paris third round. Nishikori, however, will probably have a tough opener on his hands in the form of Viktor Troicki. The world No. 28 bounced Rafael Nadal out of Shanghai and he is coming off a quarterfinal performance in Vienna (lost to Ferrer 7-5 in the third set). Milos Raonic seemingly has a good draw, but he has been in a slump since the U.S. Open and may be vulnerable against recent Moscow title winner Pablo Carreno Busta in the second round.

Second-round upset possibilities

Jack Sock of the USA in action against Argentina’s Juan Martin del Potro during the men’s final match at the ATP Stockholm Open tennis tournament in Stockholm, Sweden, 23 October 2016. EPA/JONAS EKSTROMER

Jack Sock over (6) Dominic Thiem. The first half of the 2016 campaign was nothing short of awesome for Thiem. The second half? Not so much. Having overloaded his schedule to a significant extent, the Austrian completely hit the wall starting at Wimbledon. His London status is suddenly on thin ice mostly due to a disappointing 5-5 record in his last 10 matches dating back to the U.S. Open.

Joao Sousa over (7) Tomas Berdych. Berdych looked like a sure bet to qualify for the World Tour Finals when he reached Wimbledon semifinals. Of course, when hasn’t Berdych looked like a sure thing for London? After all, he has made six consecutive appearances in the year-end championship event. But the Czech has been a disaster since leaving the All-England Club and is out of the top 10 for the first time since he reached the Wimbledon final in 2010.

John Isner over (15) David Ferrer. This has never been a fun matchup for Isner (1-7 lifetime against Ferrer), but at 34 years old this is not the same Spaniard that was on display in previous seasons. He is toiling down at No. 16 in the world and is obviously a physical question mark, as well, based on what transpired last week in Vienna.

Picks

Quarterfinal picks: Marin Cilic over Grigor Dimitrov, Jack Sock over John Isner, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over Milos Raonic, and Andy Murray over Roberto Bautista Agut

Semifinal picks: Cilic over Sock and Murray over Tsonga

Final pick: Murray over Cilic