By Ricky Dimon
Olympic years almost always wreak havoc on the American summer hard-court swing, and it remains to be seen what kind of damage is done to the draw at the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati. Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, and Kei Nishikori all lasted the entire week in Rio de Janeiro, where Nadal played a total of 11 matches while securing gold in doubles and missing out on the singles podium by one spot.
Will any or all of the aforementioned three withdraw? If so, they would join Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer on the absentee list; Djokovic, who lost to Juan Martin Del Potro in the first round of the Olympics, is now out with a recurring wrist issue and Federer will be sidelined for the remainder of 2016 because of a wrist injury. Needless to say, the door is wide open for all kinds of contenders in Cincinnati.
Who knows how this bracket will look by the time second-round action rolls around? For now, it appears as if Stan Wawrinka could not have asked for a more favorable trek to the semifinals–and beyond through. The Swiss finds himself in a section of the draw in which the other seeds are Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, David Ferrer, and Feliciano Lopez. Tsonga is once again a physical question mark, Ferrer is mired in a slump, and Lopez is making a quick turnaround after finishing runner-up to Ivo Karlovic in Los Cabos. An in-form Steve Johnson may be able to maintain his hot streak, coming off a quarterfinal showing at the Olympics to go along with a bronze medal in doubles with Jack Sock.
Wawrinka has to like his chances of not only reaching the quarters, but also advancing to at least the semifinals. Nadal and Tomas Berdych are potential quarterfinal adversaries, but neither one is heading into this week in peak condition; Nadal because he endured a grueling Rio campaign and Berdych simply because he is lacking form. The Nadal-Berdych quarter could be taken by Marin Cilic, Nick Kyrgios, or perhaps Wimbledon quarterfinalist Sam Querrey. Kyrgios, the recent Atlanta champion, has an intriguing opener on his hands with Lucas Pouille.
The top half of the draw is tough to figure out. Murray will undoubtedly be fatigued after triumphing for gold in Rio de Janeiro and the same goes for Nishikori. Dominic Thiem, meanwhile, appears to have finally run out of gas this year. That leaves Milos Raonic as the lone first-round bye recipient in the top section who looks like an especially reliable choice to do well in Cincinnati. Gael Monfils and Ivo Karlovic (the latter especially if Murray pulls out) have a big opportunity to continue their summer hot streaks.
One potential first-round upset to watch is Ferrer vs. Julien Benneteau. Although Benneteau is a mere 4-10 at the ATP level in 2016 as he returns from injury, he picked up two victories last week in Los Cabos before falling to Lopez. Also 34 years old, Ferrer has already plunged out of the top 10 and things only appear to be getting worse after he was upset to Evgeny Donskoy in the Olympics second round.
Ricky’s picks
Quarterfinals: David Goffin over Richard Gasquet, Milos Raonic over Gael Monfils, Nick Kyrgios over Marin Cilic, and Stan Wawrinka over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Semifinals: Raonic over Goffin and Wawrinka over Kyrgios
Final: Raonic over Wawrinka
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