Roberto Bautista Agut is twenty-eight years old and ranked 17th in the world of professional tennis. Breaking from the Armada mold, he’s a flat hitter from Spain who happened to draw the world’s number one, Novak Djokovic in today’s round of 16 at the Mutua Madrid Open. When they announced the hometown boy’s name, the match applause was the only moment he and Djokovic were even.
The day was humid and cool, with skies the color of young dolphins. For tennis players, that means things play heavier and the swings require more effort to hit through shots. Cold, damp air tends to lead toward more short balls early on in matches. And so it was today.
Novak chose to receive and lost the game at love when he hit some short returns and Agut took offense. Agut suffered the same in his first return game and the scoreboard flashed two matchsticks. There’s something Ivan Drago-ish about Novak.
Spanish tennis player Roberto Bautista serves the ball to Serbian Novak Djokovic during their Mutua Madrid Open tennis tournament round of 16 match at the Caja Magica Tennis Center in Madrid, Spain, 05 May 2016. EPA/JUANJO MARTIN
Agut’s second game still sees the short returns and Agut gets on top of them quickly to go 40-15. The weather is wreaking havoc on Novak’s return game and he’s already shaking his head. In junior tennis, it often takes players a full set to notice a problem and to make an adjustment. At the top of the sport, however, players adjust immediately. Novak hits his next return deep but Agut holds. Still, you sense he’s found his target and things will get tougher for the Spaniard.
The next game sees a few mishits and both players seem to be kicking their shoes a lot. the wet clay is stickier than yesterday, and footwork is becoming an issue. At this level, movement is almost as important as focus. At 2-1 Agut, the crowd turns toward the Spaniard. Small children raise MMUY Agut signs and your uneducated correspondent asks the girl next to him what that means. “MM is the Mutua Madrid and ‘muy’ means ‘very’ in Spanish.” Apparently, that’s all she felt she needed to say before returning to an ice cream that started a war between mouth and face. Early in his career, Novak had an arrogant streak and the world was still in the throes of a romantic relationship with Rafa and Fed. Thus, Djokovic knows precisely how to deal with unfriendly crowds and he stays committed to his work, holding for 2-2.
In every set, there is a decisive moment. One player digs deeper or presses harder on the accelerator and dares the opponent to keep up. Even amongst the top five, the moments happen, and it usually comes from the one who believes he is the best. The 2-2 game between Agut and Djoko see-sawed for a while. But competing against top players is like gambling against the house. Unless you know the numbers, there is an edge that is impossible to see, and the longer you play, the greater your chances of losing. In this case, all of the statistics favor Novak and on the fourth break point, he converts.
With Novak serving at 3-2, Agut confronts the returner’s dilemma (someone please write a tennis book with that title!). With only three chances to break, Agut has to decide whether to be more aggressive or more conservative on his returns games. His thought process goes something like this:
“If I can beat Djoko in long rallies, I should neutralize the serve with a deep return down the middle and start the rally. If I can only win the rallies when I am up in the point, I should return aggressively and try to get the advantage with my first shot. If I cannot win the baseline rallies, I can return aggressively and charge the net to see if Novak can pass me. I also have a slice return, a drop shot, and a high heavy ball hit from deep in the court if I need more tools. One of these return strategies, or some combination of them, will hopefully lead me to a break.”
Within those games, the returner focuses on the first three points, trying to get an edge which will force the server to play more conservatively. I explain this because there are places in each match where the tactics change. If the score was 0-1, the returner has time to figure out which tactic might work, but at 6-5, the returner has one chance and has to select the tactic based on what’s been happening on the return games to that point. It is a constant chess match and makes the game both fascinating and unpredictable. Unfortunately for Agut, he cannot solve the riddle and Novak holds, confirming the old adage, “It’s not a break until you hold.”
At 4-2, Agut serves and Novak has two things in his favor. First, he’s deciphered the serve and the weather and is now hitting every return deep. Second, he has the score edge and is free to be more aggressive with his placements, risking lines in hopes of getting up in the point with his first shot. The service break is like taking the reigns off a thoroughbred. And so it goes, 5-2 Novak.
In rare moments, Novak loses focus. A study of his career shows that those moments always happen when he has a commanding lead, and one gets the sense that he is almost bored at times, losing interest until there is pressure. Agut has talent and power but without resilience, none of that matters. Agut folds under the pressure of a more dominant player and drops the first set 6-2.
The first two games are casual holds and it allows one to notice some things happening on the just-swept clay. Novak’s movement makes a U-shape at the back of the court, closing off the corners with forward movement. His slides exist only beyond the sidelines whereas Agut’s slides are all over the court surface. If you are looking for a formula, try Balance=power+consistency=Success
Agut serves the set’s third game and Novak hits penetrating returns every point. When a returner can make a server move backwards on the first shot, it stifles the attack and good things can happen. Djoko breaks.
There’s a ball call in game four and it brings up a interesting footnote about tennis players. In competition, eye contact is very rare. Players look at body language, ball marks, racquet angles, and space on the court. In those few moments when they engage, it is generally a moment of sportsmanship to inform another player of new balls or to thank a player for overruling a linesman’s bad call. Agut gives a nod to credit to Novak for doing so here.
It is 2-1 and the Spaniard’s crowd is like a limp balloon. Some just nod in appreciation of the drubbing. Novak goes Serve+1 for four points and takes a 3-1 lead.
Agut is missing wide now. When you face a player with Djokovic’s defensive skills, the court begins to look to small. Great movers erode your belief that you can penetrate their defense. You start aiming closer to the lines because it appears there is no other way to get a ball past your opponent. The unforced errors add up because of a player’s reputation for speed. It becomes difficult to trust your patterns and force the player to beat you. This is why many fast players win matches. A quality coach prepares the player for this scenario so they may recognize when it starts happening.
As mentioned earlier, Agut is a very good tennis player. Novak’s ball is a wading pool’s depth better than his opponent, but when you are in over your head to begin with, that kind of water weight can kill you. 5-1 Djoker.
Novak could take his foot off the pedal on Agut’s final service game. He could let the kid breathe for a moment and conserve energy for his own service. But, champions aren’t wired that way, and especially ones who like to send messages to the rest of the field that they are untouchable. Novak hits three winners and another groundie winner to end the match. Agut looks like something in a paella dish.
The lesson here is the same lesson I’ve been preaching this whole week. The margins at this level are tiny but significant. Fortitude, resilience, adaptability. This the vocabulary of champions. Today, Agut could not translate them into Spanish.
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Topics: 10sballs, ATP Madrid, Clay tennis, Craig Cignarelli, Madrid Tennis, Mutua Madrid Open, Novak Djokovic, Roberto Bautista Agut, Sports, Tennis News
RT @10sBalls_com: -@CraigCignarelli Writes From The #MadridOpen-Breaks Down The Novak/Agut Match, Plus Results
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RT @10sBalls_com: -@CraigCignarelli Writes From The #MadridOpen-Breaks Down The Novak/Agut Match, Plus Results
https://t.co/QZuF83PuCO http…
RT @10sBalls_com: -@CraigCignarelli Writes From The #MadridOpen-Breaks Down The Novak/Agut Match, Plus Results
https://t.co/QZuF83PuCO http…