RICKY’S TENNIS PREVIEW AND PICKS FOR THE MUTUA MADRID OPEN

Written by: Staff on 1st May 2016

RICKY'S TENNIS PREVIEW AND PICKS FOR THE MUTUA MADRID OPEN

epa05283774 Spanish tennis player Rafael Nadal hits the ball during a training session for the Mutua Madrid Open at the at Caja Magica court in Madrid, Spain, 30 April 2016. The Mutua Madrid Open runs from 29 April to 08 May 2016. EPA/Chema Moya |

Ricky’s preview and picks for the Mutua Madrid Open

By Ricky Dimon

After a couple of top 10 players missed the Masters 1000 tournament in Monte-Carlo last month, just about everyone is on hand for the Mutua Madrid Open. Novak Djokovic headlines the field as the No. 1 seed, looking to make amends for a stunning loss right at the start of his Monte-Carlo campaign. With Rafael Nadal on the other side of the draw, a Djokovic-Nadal title match is possible. The Spaniard is 2-for-2 so far during this clay-court swing (triumphed in both Monte-Carlo and Barcelona). Roger Federer and defending champion Andy Murray both find themselves in Nadal’s half of the bracket.

Djokovic dropped his Monte-Carlo opener from completely out of nowhere at the hands of Jiri Vesely, and he now awaits either Nicolas Almagro or Borna Coric. Neither man is the easiest of second-round opponents, with Almagro possibly being an especially problematic out. The Spaniard will be playing in front of a home crowd and he is coming off a title in Estoril (beat Pablo Carreno Busta in three sets on Sunday). Potential quarterfinal foes for Djokovic are Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Milos Raonic, who could be particularly dangerous in high altitude. Raonic advanced to the quarterfinals last year before bowing out against Murray.

As a whole, the top half of the draw is not as intriguing on paper. That being said, the Stan Wawrinka-Kei Nishikori quarter also hosts Gael Monfils, Nick Kyrgios, Fabio Fognini, recent Bucharest champion Fernando Verdasco, Munich winner Philipp Kohlschreiber, and the return of Kevin Anderson. If Kyrgios emerges from round one, the 21-year-old Aussie is line to face Wawrinka in what will always be a mouth-watering matchup. The winner of that showdown could get either Monfils or Kohlschreiber in the last 16.

The story in the bottom half, of course, is that Nadal and Federer could renew their rivalry in the quarters. Outcomes of their clay-court battles are often foregone conclusions, especially given that Nadal appears to be in the midst of a resurgence, but Madrid may be the one setting at which Federer has at least some chance of an upset on the red stuff. Before that contest can come to fruition, Federer will likely have to defeat Dominic Thiem in the third round. Thiem, though, is part of a wildly entertaining 16th of the bracket that also includes Juan Martin Del Potro, Benoit Paire, and Jack Sock. A favorable draw for Nadal will see the four-time champion open with either Andrey Kuznetsov or Viktor Troicki.

Perhaps nobody has a more benign road through Madrid—at least until the semis—than Murray. His nearest top-8 seed is Berdych, whose 2016 campaign has been lackluster at best. The Scot will kick off his defense against either Radek Stepanek or Vasek Pospisil, with neither man looking anywhere close to a serious threat right now. The only players in this section who absolutely love clay are David Ferrer and Pablo Carreno Busta. Ferrer is rusty because of physical problems and Carreno Busta is coming off a long week in Estoril, where he finished runner-up to Almagro.

A potential first-round upset to watch is Lucas Pouille over David Goffin. While Goffin may have a slight edge, a surprise is by no means out of the question. The Belgian is coming off a quarterfinal loss to Alexander Zverev in Munich. Pouille, meanwhile, already has two qualifying wins under his belt that should have acclimated him to Madrid conditions. Neither result was overly impressive, but the 22-year-old Frenchman continued his winning ways nonetheless. He boasts 11 ATP-level match victories this season, one of which came at Goffin’s expense in Brisbane.

Ricky’s picks

Quarterfinals: Novak Djokovic over Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori over Stan Wawrinka, Rafael Nadal over Roger Federer, and Andy Murray over Tomas Berdych

Semifinals: Djokovic over Nishikori and Nadal over Murray

Final: Djokovic over Nadal