RICKY’S WEDNESDAY AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS PICKS: MURRAY VS. FERRER, RAONIC VS. MONFILS

Written by: Staff on 26th January 2016

RICKY'S WEDNESDAY AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS PICKS: MURRAY VS. FERRER, RAONIC VS. MONFILS

epa05124281 Milos Raonic of Canada plays a shot against Stan Wawrinka of Switzerland during their fourth round match at the Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne, Australia, 25 January 2016. EPA/MAST IRHAM |

By Ricky Dimon

The Australian Open quarterfinals will conclude on Wednesday, when Andy Murray faces David Ferrer and Milos Raonic goes up against Gael Monfils. Raonic vs. Monfils was expected to be Stan Wawrinka vs. Rafael Nadal when the draw was revealed, but that certainly did not turn out to be the case. Murray vs. Ferrer, of course, is far more expected and familiar showdown.

(8) David Ferrer vs. (2) Andy Murray

Murray and Ferrer will be squaring off for the 19th time in the careers. The head-to-head series stands at 12-6 in favor of Murray, who is 11-1 at Ferrer’s expense on hard courts. Ferrer’s lone win on hards came at the 2011 World Tour Finals via a 6-4, 7-5 scoreline. Their only previous contest in Melbourne also came five seasons ago, when Murray booked his spot in the final with a 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-1, 7-6(2) win.

Murray needed four sets to beat Joao Sousa in the third round but otherwise cruised past Alexander Zverev, Sam Groth, and Bernard Tomic. Ferrer struggled through lackluster weeks in Doha (first-round loss to Illya Marchenko) and Auckland (semifinal loss to Jack Sock), but he has picked up the pace as the stakes have increased. So far in Melbourne the 33-year-old Spaniard has rolled over Peter Gojowyczk, Lleyton Hewitt, Steve Johnson, and John Isner. Nobody–not even Isner–has pushed Ferrer to a tiebreaker.

Andy Murray of Great Britain returns against against Bernard Tomic of Australia duringtheir fourth round match at the Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne, Australia, 25 January 2016. EPA/LYNN BO BO

Unfortunately for Ferrer, this is a terrible matchup for him. Gojowyczk, Johnson, and Isner were more one-dimensional opponents whom Ferrer had no trouble breaking down. Hewitt was slower, less powerful form of Ferrer. Murray, on the other hand, plays even better defense than Ferrer, is just as consistent, and can showcase far more firepower off both wings and with his serve. The combination of Ferrer’s current form and his grittiness will earn him a set, but for the most part this will be one-way traffic.

Pick: Murray in 4

(25) Gael Monfils vs. (14) Milos Raonic

Raonic and Monfils will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers. Monfils has won both of their previous encounters, but they have not squared off since 2013. The Frenchman prevailed 6-7(6), 6-4, 6-3 on the indoor hard courts of Stockholm in 2011 and 6-4, 6-2 on the grass of Halle two seasons later.

Now, however, Raonic is an established force at or near the top of the game. He has arguably been the best player throughout the month of January with a 9-0. Raonic won the Brisbane title and boasts victories this fortnight over Lucas Pouille, Tommy Robredo, Viktor Troicki, and Stan Wawrinka. Monfils benefited from Nadal’s early elimination when he faced Alex Kuznetsov in the fourth round and got past the Russian in four sets. The 25th-ranked Frenchman preceded that victory with straight-set defeats of Yuichi Sugita, Nicolas Mahut, and veteran compatriot Stephane Robert. This is Monfils’ first trip to the Australian Open quarters and just third appearance in the quarters of a major outside Roland Garros.

Gael Monfils of France returns the ball to Stephane Robert of France during their third round match at the Australian Open Grand Slam tennis tournament in Melbourne, Australia, 23 January 2016. EPA/LUKAS COCH

Although Monfils has no reason to apologize for having enjoyed an extremely favorable draw, the bottom line is Raonic is more battle-tested and simply playing better tennis–better than Monfils and almost anyone else. The 2014 Wimbledon semifinalist has been borderline unbreakable aside from during a brief hiccup during his five-set upset of Wawrinka. It is hard to see Monfils staying focused in enough service games to stay within serious striking distance of his on-fire opponent.

Pick: Raonic in 3