TENNIS NEWS – RICKY DIMON’S BREAKING DOWN THE AUSTRALIAN OPEN MEN’S DRAW: RAFAEL NADAL GETS LUCKY, A TOUGH ROAD FOR SWISS STARS, FEDERER AND WAWRINKA

Written by: Staff on 15th January 2016

TENNIS NEWS - RICKY DIMON'S BREAKING DOWN THE AUSTRALIAN OPEN MEN'S DRAW: RAFAEL NADAL GETS LUCKY, A TOUGH ROAD FOR SWISS STARS, FEDERER AND WAWRINKA

epa05102704 Swiss player Roger Federer (left) and retiring Australian player Lleyton Hewitt take a break during a joint practice session on Rod Laver Arena ahead of the Australian Open Tennis tournament in Melbourne, Australia, 15 January 2016. EPA/JULIAN SMITH AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND OUT |

All of their recent results suggest Rafael Nadal has next to no chance against Novak Djokovic in a head-to-head meeting. If Nadal wants to capture a second Australian Open title, he may need someone else to do the dirty work of taking out Djokovic for him. That man could be Roger Federer, as the Swiss landed in the top half of the draw with Djokovic when the ceremony was held on Friday.

But Federer has a difficult path in front of him even before a potential semifinal showdown against Djokovic. On the other side of the bracket, countryman Stan Wawrinka is also faced with roadblocks left and right.

Djokovic’s quarter

Novak Djokovic of Serbia plays a shot during a joint practice session with Fernando Verdasco of Spain ahead of the Australian Open tennis tournament at Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia, 15 January 2016. EPA/JULIAN SMITH

Djokovic’s relatively tough draw goes beyond the fact that Federer may be lurking in the semifinals. Before getting there, the top seed could have to pass a couple of not-so-simple tests. Djokovic will begin his fortnight against Korean teenager Hyeon Chung, who is already up to No. 51 in the world. Ivan Dodig is a possible second-round opponent and another Croat, Ivo Karlovic, is looming large as a potential fourth-round adversary. Throughout all of 2015, Karlovic was the only man to eliminate Djokovic from a tournament prior to the title match (Doha quarterfinals).

Life will be even more difficult for the other top-eight seed in this section. Kei Nishikori has to go up against Philipp Kohlschreiber right away before likely meeting either Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Benoit Paire in the fourth round. Nishikori lost in round one of the U.S. Open to none other than Paire, who was eventually ousted by Tsonga one stop short of a trip to the quarterfinals.

Despite all of Nishikori’s success, he is no stranger to early exits at Grand Slams. He has won just a single match in the last two majors combined and he has fallen in the first round at three of his last nine slams. In 10 previous Australian Open appearances Kohlschreiber has never lost in the first round.

Federer’s quarter

Federer should be able to sleepwalk past Nikoloz Basilashvili in round one before the proverbial heat index ratchets up. In succession from the last 64 through the quarters, Federer could conceivably run into Alexandr Dolgopolov, Grigor Dimitrov, Dominic Thiem, and Nick Kyrgios.

Dolgopolov will open with Ricardas Berankis, whom the Ukrainian also faced in the first round of this same tournament in 2014. Although the Lithuanian went down 7-5, 7-5, 6-2, he may have a better chance this time around following an inspired second half of 2015.

Still, here is no foreseeable reason why Federer vs. Dolgopolov and Federer vs. Dimitrov would not come to fruition. The statuses of Thiem and Kyrgios, however, are much different stories. Thiem has to open against Leonardo Mayer before possibly running into Nicolas Almagro and David Goffin prior to the second week. Kyrgios is on a collision course for the third round with Tomas Berdych. Joining the controversial Aussie and hard-hitting Czech in an intriguing lower half of this section are fellow Croats Marin Cilic and Borna Coric.

Wawrinka’s quarter

Wawrinka has played five-setters against Djokovic on three straight occasions at the Happy Slam. In 2013 it was a fourth-rounder. In 2014 it was a quarterfinal. In 2015 it was a semifinal. By now you know the trend: yes, in 2016 it would be the final. But Wawrinka has a long way to go before he can think about that scenario. The Swiss’ draw is scary. He could go up against a red-hot Jack Sock in the third round and Brisbane champion Milos Raonic in the last 16. Likely waiting in the quarterfinals would be Nadal, who thrashed Wawrinka twice last fall: 6-2, 6-1 in Shanghai and 6-3, 6-2 in London.

Nadal’s anticipated trek to the quarters is not as taxing. An immediate date with Fernando Verdasco will make pre-match headlines, but it may not amount to much. Verdasco is not the player he was in 2009, when he and Nadal produced one of the best matches ever in the Aussie Open semis. Although Nadal may not be the same player, either, he is much closer than Verdasco to their respective peaks.

Ernests Gulbis and Andrey Kuznetsov are potential third-round adversaries, while Kevin Anderson and Gael Monfils will try to set up a fourth-round contest against Nadal. But the 14-time major champion had no trouble with Anderson last year in Melbourne and Monfils is once again a question mark due to injury.

Murray’s quarter

The might as well be the Australian section. Seven players who hail from the host nation are on hand: Hewitt, James Duckworth, Bernard Tomic, Sam Groth, Matthew Ebden, John Millman, and Jordan Thompson. Hewitt and Duckworth will be the early talk of the town for their head-to-head showdown during first-round action, but only one—Tomic—has a real chance to do serious damage in Melbourne. The world No. 17 has a great draw (he even told chair umpire Mohamed Lahyani as much while sitting down for a changeover in Sydney) that should see him cruise into fourth-round showdown against Murray.

British player Andy Murray serves as his coach Amelie Mauresmo (right) looks on during a practice session with Spanish player Rafael Nadal ahead of the Australian Open Tennis tournament in Melbourne, Australia, 15 January 2016. EPA/JULIAN SMITH EPA/JULIAN SMITH

Speaking of Murray, he could not have asked for a better draw. His nearest seeds are Joao Sousa, Fabio Fognini, and Tomic, and David Ferrer is unquestionably the weakest of the 5-8 seeds. Alexander Zverev is a relatively big-name opponent in round one, but the teenaged German is still a few years away from serious slam contention. The second-ranked Scot is going to storm into the quarterfinals, where he will see either Ferrer, John Isner, or Feliciano Lopez.

As for Hewitt vs. Duckworth, it’s an enticing clash between two Australians that will undoubtedly get night-session treatment in Rod Laver Arena. The atmosphere is going to be electric—especially if it goes to five sets. And nothing screams “five-set marathon” quite like Hewitt vs. Duckworth at the Australian Open. Even the much-younger Duckworth already has plenty of experience with grueling five-setters in Melbourne. Get your popcorn ready for Hewitt’s last ride.

Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand.

Topics: 10sballs.com, 2016 Australian Open, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Andy Murray, Atp World Tour, Dominic Thiem, GRIGOR DIMITROV, Ivo Karlovic, jack sock, Kei Nishikori, Melbourne tennis, Men's tennis, milos raonic, Nick Kyrgios, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Novak Djokovic, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Rafael Nadal, Ricky Dimon, Roger Federer, Sports, Stan Wawrinka, Tennis, Tennis News

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