By Ricky Dimon
Either Andy Murray or Rafael Nadal will take control of Group Ilie Nastase at the World Tour Finals on Wednesday afternoon. Murray is coming off a straight-set win over David Ferrer, while Nadal made surprisingly quick work of Stan Wawrinka. Wednesday’s nightcap will pit Wawrinka against Ferrer in a virtual must-win situation for both players.
(2) Andy Murray vs. (5) Rafael Nadal
Murray and Nadal will take 1-0 World Tour Finals records with them into their 22nd career meeting.
The head-to-head series stands at 15-6 in favor of Nadal, but it is an even 5-5 on hard courts. It is also tied 1-1 indoors following a 2009 Rotterdam win by Murray and a 7-6(5), 3-6, 7-6(6) thriller at the 2010 World Tour Finals that went to Nadal. Their only previous encounter in 2015 came on the clay courts of Madrid, where the Scot rolled 6-3, 6-2 to capture the title.
Fast forward six months and Nadal is in much better form now. The fifth-ranked Spaniard recently finished runner-up in Beijing and Basel to go along with a semifinal showing in Shanghai and a quarterfinal performance in Paris. He easily maintained momentum on Monday by winning his opener at the O2 6-3, 6-2 over Stan Wawrinka.
Murray enjoyed a similarly routine day against David Ferrer, needing only eight more minutes than Nadal (1:30 to 1:22) to prevail 6-4, 6-4. The world No. 3 is now 10-3 since the U.S. Open with a semifinal appearance in Shanghai and a run to the Paris final.
Whether he likes it or not, Murray seems to be on his way to the semifinals–thus cutting down on his clay-court preparation time for the upcoming Davis Cup final between Great Britain and Belgium. But he got in a week of practice on the red stuff last week and by the looks of his opening match he is motivated to do well in London.
That, along with the low-bouncing surface, is bad news for Nadal. Look for Murray to dictate play and eventually wear down his opponent thanks in part to the indoor conditions, but both players should advance to the semis in the end.
Pick: Murray in 3
(4) Stan Wawrinka vs. (7) David Ferrer
Wawrinka and Ferrer will be meeting for the 14th time in their careers on Wednesday night.
The head-to-head series stands at 7-6 in favor of Ferrer, but Wawrinka has won three of their four previous hard-court encounters–including two of three indoors. They have faced each other once at the World Tour Finals, where Wawrinka got the best of a round-robin showdown 6-7(3), 6-4, 6-1. The two veterans have collided only once since then–more than a year ago on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo, where the Swiss cruised 6-1, 7-6(3).
Both men are in dire need of a victory after losing their O2 openers in straight sets. Ferrer at least managed to be somewhat competitive against Murray but the Spaniard’s serve let him down in a 6-4, 6-4 loss. Wawrinka started his match by breaking Nadal only to go off the rails immediately thereafter. The world No. 4 got broken right back at love, never recovered, and ultimately succumbed 6-3, 6-2.
In his first World Tour Finals match since losing a controversial semifinal thriller to Roger Federer last year, Wawrinka never looked comfortable.
Ferrer’s problems are fewer, more easily identified, and may be more correctable. The Spaniard served at a horrendous 49 percent against Murray while double-faulting eight times without striking a single ace. Afterward he mentioned that the struggles came out of nowhere and in general he is happy with his serve.
Although Wawrinka is capable of hitting through this surface despite its lack of speed, he certainly did not do that against Nadal and looked frustrated with the conditions. Barring a drastic turnaround in the mental department for the reigning French Open champion, this is a good opportunity for a relatively in-form Ferrer.
Pick: Ferrer in 3
Topics: 02 Arena, Andy Murray, David Ferrer, London tennis, Rafael Nadal, Stan Wawrinka, Tennis News, World Tour Finals
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