RICKY’S PICKS FOR THE START OF THE EUROPEAN SWING IN METZ AND ST. PETERSBURG

Written by: Staff on 20th September 2015

RICKY'S PICKS FOR THE START OF THE EUROPEAN SWING IN METZ AND ST. PETERSBURG

epa04884424 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga of France in action against Andy Murray of Great Britain during their quarterfinal match of the Open ATP tennis tournament in Montreal, Canada, 14 August 2015. EPA/ANDRE PICHETTE |

RICKY’S PICKS FOR THE START OF THE EUROPEAN SWING IN METZ AND ST. PETERSBURG

By Ricky Dimon

The dog days of fall are upon us, at least in terms of the tennis season. Action will eventually heat back up with a pair of Masters 1000 events, the World Tour Finals, and the Davis Cup final, but for now we are in the midst of a European stretch featuring 250s and 500s. Up first are Metz and St. Petersburg, where the lists of participants include Stan Wawrinka, Gilles Simon, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tomas Berdych, and Milos Raonic.

Aside from an enticing first-rounder between Fernando Verdasco and Alexander Zverev on the other side, the top half of the Moselle Open draw is far more interesting and formidable. Wawrinka and Tsonga are on hand, joined by the likes of Philipp Kohlschreiber, Dustin Brown, and recent Davis Cup hero Steve Darcis (the Belgian’s Argentine opponent whom he beat in a fifth rubber on Sunday, Federico Delbonis, also finds himself in this part of the Metz bracket).

Wawrinka’s brutal path to the title match could feature Brown, Kohlschreiber, and Tsonga.

With a rusty Guillermo Garcia-Lopez as the seeded recipient of a bye, the third section is completely up for grabs. Winston-Salem runner-up and U.S. Open doubles champion Pierre-Hugues Herbert is brimming with confidence but has a tough opener on his hands with Sergiy Stakhovsky. Wimbledon quarterfinalist Vasek Pospisil could also contend for a semifinal spot—if not more. Simon has a friendly draw as the No. 2 seed and always seems to fare well indoors, especially at home in France.

At just 18 years old, Zverev peaked as high as 74th in the world in June and currently registers at No. 79 in the rankings. He has no bad losses since Wimbledon, succumbing only to Tommy Robredo (twice), Marin Cilic, Borna Coric (in a third-set tiebreaker), and Philipp Kohlschreiber (in five sets). A setback against Verdasco could be considered worse than any of those. With the Spaniard in uninspiring form, this is a good chance for Zverev to keep his hot streak going.

Semifinal predictions: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over Philipp Kohlschreiber and Gilles Simon over Vasek Pospisil

Final: Simon over Tsonga

Each of the top two seeds at the St. Petersburg Open is looking vulnerable. Berdych was underwhelming at best throughout the summer and Raonic has been a borderline non-factor since a foot problem first began hampering him at the start of the clay-court swing.

The question is: can anyone else capitalize on this opportunity? On paper, Berdych has a slightly more troublesome trek through the draw than Raonic. The winner of an intriguing opener between Andrey Rublev and Simone Bolelli should be able to give the Czech a tough test right off the bat. Up-and-comers Thanasi Kokkinakis and Dominic Thiem are potential opponents for Berdych in the quarterfinals and semis, respectively.

Raonic is not the only boom-or-bust player in the bottom half of the bracket. Several others have title-winning potential while also coming with the possibility of a first-round exit. Ernests Gulbis, who won this tournament in 2013 before it briefly exited the schedule last year, has been miserable for the most part this season. Tommy Robredo, who opens with Mikhail Youzhny, advanced two rounds at the U.S. Open but has been dealing with a calf injury.

Look no further than the fact Mikhail Youzhny needed a wild card just to get into a small 250-point tournament to realize how much of a struggle it has been for him in 2015. Both of these veterans are 33 years old, but the Russian appears to be on his last legs whereas Robredo is still going strong. Although the Spaniard should take care of business in this one, his calf injury makes him a question mark and Youzhny at least has the benefit of playing at home.

In the third section, the Benoit Paire-Jerzy Janowicz will ultimately hope to challenge Roberto Bautista Agut in a potential quarterfinal clash. Paire will be trying to maintain momentum from a surprising performance in New York, where he upset Kei Nishikori en route to the fourth round.

Semifinal predictions: Dominic Thiem over Tomas Berdych and Milos Raonic over Roberto Baustista Agut

Final: Thiem over Raonic