RICKY’S PICKS FOR THE U.S. OPEN SEMIFINALS: DJOKOVIC VS. CILIC, FEDERER VS. WAWRINKA

Written by: on 10th September 2015
US Open Tennis
RICKY'S PICKS FOR THE U.S. OPEN SEMIFINALS: DJOKOVIC VS. CILIC, FEDERER VS. WAWRINKA

epa04921255 Novak Djokovic of Serbia hits a return to Feliciano Lopez of Spain during their quarterfinals match on the ninth day of the 2015 US Open Tennis Championship at the USTA National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York, USA, 08 September 2015. The US Open runs through 13 September, which is a return to a 14-day schedule. EPA/JASON SZENES  |

Ricky’s picks for the U.S. Open semifinals: Djokovic vs. Cilic, Federer vs. Wawrinka

 

By Ricky Dimon

 

The three current holders of Grand Slam titles will be in action when the men’s singles semifinals take center stage at the U.S. Open on Friday. None other than Roger Federer is the lone participant who is not a current reigning major champion, but he looks poised to get himself back in the slam-winning picture. A red-hot Federer is going up against fellow Swiss Stan Wawrinka, while world No. 1 Novak Djokovic is facing defending champion Marin Cilic.

 

Previews and picks for the two men’s matchups:

 

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (9) Marin Cilic

Djokovic and Cilic will be facing each other for the 14th time in their careers when they collide again in the semifinals of the U.S. Open.

 

This is one of the most lopsided head-to-head series in the entire sport. Djokovic has won all 13 of their previous encounters, including nine on hard courts, four in Grand Slams, and one at the U.S. Open. Their 2008 Flushing Meadows showdown was one of their best, with Djokovic surviving 6-7(7), 7-5, 6-4, 7-6(0) in a third-round night match inside Arthur Ashe Stadium.

 

Each of the last three meetings between Djokovic and Cilic–two of which have come in 2015–has ended in straight sets. The Serb has won nine consecutive sets by scorelines of 6-2, 6-2, 6-1, 6-1, 6-0, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4, and 6-4.

 

“Definitely toughest match for me; toughest matchup,” Cilic admitted. “I haven’t beaten him ever in my career. I had close matches (the) last few years, but I haven’t found the right formula to be able to win a match. When you’re coming to the match it’s always going from zero, so it’s a new match. It’s different stage, and I’m feeling good here on the court.”

 

There is some reason to expect something along the lines of competitiveness in matchup number 14. Djokovic failed to win both Montreal and Cincinnati, finishing runner-up at both Masters events. After coasting past Joao Souza, Andreas Haider-Maurer, and Andreas Seppi to begin this fortnight, the world No. 1 dropped sets to Roberto Bautista Agut in the fourth round and to Feliciano Lopez in a Tuesday night quarterfinal that ended 6-1, 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(2).

 

The U.S. Open, meanwhile, is undoubtedly Cilic’s favorite tournament. He went on an incredible run to the 2014 title for his first and only major triumph and his defense is going almost impossibly well. The ninth-ranked Croat missed the first three months of this season and solid but unspectacular form upon his return meant hardly anyone expected him to make a return trip to the semifinals. But Cilic has capitalized on a favorable draw, taking out Guido Pella Evgeny Donskoy, Mikhail Kukushkin, Jeremy Chardy, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The ninth seed raised his level when it matter most in fifth sets against both Kukushkin and Tsonga.

 

Djokovic has not been at his very best of late, but he is still been good enough–with some room to spare–to advance this far in New York. Unless Cilic suddenly manages to morph into his 2014 U.S. Open self for at least three sets, this should be another straightforward one.

 

Pick: Djokovic in 4

 

(5) Stan Wawrinka vs. (2) Roger Federer 

Federer and Wawrinka will be squaring off for the 20th time in their careers on Friday.

 

Coming off a quarterfinal in which he led Richard Gasquet 14-2 in match wins going into it, Federer is dominating this head-to-head series with Wawrinka in similar fashion–16 victories against three losses to be exact. The 34-year-old is 11-0 against his countryman on hard courts and 4-1 at Grand Slams heading into their first-ever meeting in Flushing Meadows. In their most recent showdown, however, Wawrinka prevailed 6-4, 6-3, 7-6(4) in the French Open quarterfinals en route to his second major title.

 

Roger Federer of Switzerland hits a return to Richard Gasquet of France during their quarterfinals match on the tenth day of the 2015 US Open Tennis Championship at the USTA National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York, USA, 09 September 2015. The US Open runs through 13 September, which is a return to a 14-day schedule. EPA/JUSTIN LANE

Less than four months later, Federer is a completely different player and he now has the benefit of a surface that is more conducive to his game–especially against Wawrinka, whose three upsets of the current world No. 2 have all come on clay. Since finishing runner-up to Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon, Federer has been in daunting form. The 17-time Grand Slam champion rolled to the Cincinnati title and so far this fortnight he has disposed of Leonardo Mayer, Steve Darcis, Philipp Kohlschreiber, John Isner, and Richard Gasquet without dropping a set. Only Isner’s massive serve pushed Federer to a pair of tiebreakers; nobody else has even come close of getting that far in any set.

 

Wawrinka has not quite peaked in New York like he did at Roland Garros, but he surrendered only one set during his trek to the last four–a breadstick in the second handed to him by Donald Young. The world No. 5 endured a few other tests despite straight-set scorelines as he fought past Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Hyeon Chung, Ruben Bemelmans, and Kevin Anderson. Wawrinka took his game to a new level from what had previously been on display throughout the event when he faced Anderson on Wednesday night, crushing the South African 6-4, 6-4, 6-0 in one hour and 47 minutes.

 

As indicated in his performances at the tail end of the French Open and against a red-hot Anderson in the U.S. Open quarters, Wawrinka seems to raise the standard whenever necessary. To say he will have to do so once again on Friday would be a gross understatement. After all, no one is playing as well as Federer right now; arguably no one is even in the same ballpark.

 

Pick: Federer in 3

 

Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand.

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