This being the hundred and fiftieth anniversary of the publication of Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, we can’t help but think about curious legal cases. Which led us to think of a truly wild possible case: The WTA suing Wimbledon to force it to apply the seeding formula to the women as well as the men. After all, if there are male grass specialists, so are there plenty of female grass specialists — Petra Kvitova, Angelique Kerber, Alison Riske, and now Belinda Bencic spring to mind. Why shouldn’t they get the same consideration?
The answer, of course, is that for every player who would benefit from the seeding formula, there is a player who would be demoted. So there is no organized body pushing for seeding adjustment.
But that doesn’t mean that we can’t apply the seeding formula.
So what is the seeding formula this year?
* Take ranking points for this week
* Add “100% points earned for all grass court tournament in past 12 months.”
* Add “75% points earned for best grass court tournament in 12 months before that.”
We note a slight ambiguity in there. Normally the “last twelve months” would be clear — the events the week before the preceding Wimbledon through the events two weeks before the current Wimbledon. So, if this year were a normal year, that would mean Eastbourne 2014 through Birmingham 2015. But, this year, Wimbledon was pushed back a week. That means that Eastbourne 2014 was 53 weeks ago, not 52, and Eastbourne 2013 was 105 weeks ago, not 104. Should we count those events 53 and 105 weeks ago?
If the author were in charge, the answer would be “yes”; we should count by seasons, not by weeks. But the Tours always operate on 52 week years. So we took the literal reading and operated on that. We also took the entire Top 35, just to account for withdrawals. So Peng Shuai is in here even though she won’t play, and Zarina Diyas and Roberta Vinci are in here even though it turns out they won’t be seeded. Finally, we took actual points awarded, rather than adjusting for the change in the points table from 2013 to 2014. (Don’t get us started on that.) Doing all that gives us this set of adjusted seeds:
1. S WILLIAMS: 11631 points. WTA: #1
2. KVITOVA: 9245 points. WTA: #2
3. HALEP: 7155 points. WTA: #3
4. SHARAPOVA: 6265 points. WTA: #4
5. WOZNIACKI: 5378.75 points. WTA: #5
6. SAFAROVA: 4910 points. WTA: #6
7. BOUCHARD: 4540 points. WTA: #12
8. KERBER: 4413.75 points. WTA: #10
9. IVANOVIC: 4378.5 points. WTA: #7
10. MAKAROVA: 4125 points. WTA: #8
11. LISICKI: 3985 points. WTA: #18
12. RADWANSKA: 3840 points. WTA: #13
13. SUAREZ NAVARRO: 3725 points. WTA: #9
14. PLISKOVA: 3660 points. WTA: #11
15. PETKOVIC: 2866 points. WTA: #14
16. BACSINSZKY: 2745 points. WTA: #15
17. V WILLIAMS: 2716 points. WTA: #16
18. STRYCOVA: 2463.75 points. WTA: #28
19. KEYS: 2462.5 points. WTA: #21
20. SVITOLINA: 2460 points. WTA: #17
21. CORNET: 2206 points. WTA: #25
22. MUGURUZA: 2161 points. WTA: #20
[23. PENG: 2157 points. WTA: #26]
24. ERRANI: 2153.75 points. WTA: #19
25. PENNETTA: 2127 points. WTA: #24
26. AZARENKA: 2037 points. WTA: #23
27. STOSUR: 2030 points. WTA: #22
28. GIORGI: 1950 points. WTA: #32
29. JANKOVIC: 1935 points. WTA: #29
30. BENCIC: 1897.5 points. WTA: #31
31. KUZNETSOVA: 1877 points. WTA: #27
32. GARCIA: 1755 points. WTA: #33
[33. DIYAS: 1745.75 points. WTA: #34]
34. BEGU: 1710.75 points. WTA: #30
[35. VINCI: 1512 points. WTA: #35]
So the Top Four are unchanged. But in the #5-#8 block, we have substantial changes. Eugenie Bouchard, last year’s finalist, shoots up from #12 to #7 — although she surely doesn’t deserve it this year. Angelique Kerber, who does deserve a grass promotion, also hits the Top Eight. Bouchard and Kerber replace Ana Ivanovic and Ekaterina Makarova. (Probably deservedly, for Ivanovic. Makarova perhaps should be higher — but she skipped this year’s warm-ups. She might have done otherwise were the formula “real.”)
It’s interesting to note that not one player in the adjusted #9-#12 block is seeded there in the actual draw. Ivanovic and Makarova were bumped down from the #5-#8 block. And Agnieszka Radwanska was promoted from the #13-#16 block, and Sabine Lisicki — the finalist in 2013, remember — promoted all the way from the #17-#24 block. Their promotions drop Carla Suarez Navarro and Karolina Pliskova to the #13-#16 block.
Lisicki’s dramatic improvement has another effect: It drops Venus Williams from #16 to #17. Yes, even though she’s a former champion, Venus gets demoted — because she has only one grass event in the last two years (Wimbledon 2014), and she lost early there. By the numbers, her demotion is well deserved; of our 35 players, she is co-#29 in grass points (tied with Stosur; the only players below her are Muguruza, Begu, Kuznetsova, Svitolina, and Errani. Svitolina is too new to have much grass on her record, and Muguruza only slightly more experienced; Errani hates the stuff. It’s pretty depressing company for Venus).
Venus is the only player demoted from above #16 to below, but we have more demotions around the #24/#25 diving line. Demoted below that mark are Stosur (because she’s lousy on grass) and Azarenka (because she didn’t play much); Pennetta would also fall if it weren’t for Peng’s withdrawal. Promoted into the #17-#24 block are Strycova and Cornet (which surprised us, but beating Serena obviously has its rewards…); Peng would also have been promoted if she played.
Incidentally, if you want to know each player’s grass points under the formula, that’s this list, which probably won’t surprise anyone (except, perhaps for the amazing fact that Serena Williams is at #18):
1. KVITOVA: 2375
2. LISICKI: 1665
3. BOUCHARD: 1422
4. KERBER: 1128.75
5. RADWANSKA: 1025
6. HALEP: 955
7. SAFAROVA: 855
8. STRYCOVA: 713.75
9. MAKAROVA: 550
10. IVANOVIC: 483.5
11. KEYS: 482.5
12. GIORGI: 470
13. PLISKOVA: 450
14. SUAREZ NAVARRO: 380
15. WOZNIACKI: 378.75
16. BENCIC: 362.5
17. CORNET: 361
18. S WILLIAMS: 340
19. DIYAS: 325.75
20. SHARAPOVA: 315
20. PENG: 315
22. PENNETTA: 280
22. GARCIA: 280
24. JANKOVIC: 250
25. VINCI: 221
26. PETKOVIC: 206
27. AZARENKA: 145
28. BACSINSZKY: 140
29. V WILLIAMS: 130
29. STOSUR: 130
31. MUGURUZA: 86
32. BEGU: 74.75
33. KUZNETSOVA: 65
34. SVITOLINA: 55
35. ERRANI: 13.75
If Bencic’s Eastbourne title were thrown in, she would rise to probably #8. Radwanska would be up to #4. Looks like we know who to watch out for this year….
Estimated WTA Rankings As of June 28, 2015
Rank &
Prior
Rank …Name …………. Points
1..(1) SWILLIAMS ……… 11171*
2..(4) SHARAPOVA ……… 5720*
3..(3) HALEP …………. 5151*
4..(2) KVITOVA ……….. 4880*
5..(5) WOZNIACKI ……… 4770*
6..(7) IVANOVIC ………..3775*
7..(6) SAFAROVA ………..3285*
8..(9) SUAREZ NAVARRO …..3285*
9..(8) MAKAROVA ………..3155*
10.(11) PLISKOVA ………..3090*
11.(10) KERBER ………….2865*
12.(13) ARADWANSKA ………2790*
13.(15) BACSINSZKY ………2505*
14.(16) VWILLIAMS ……… 2466*
15.(17) SVITOLINA ……… 2405*
16.(14) PETKOVIC ………..2360*
17.(19) ERRANI ………….2085*
18.(20) MUGURUZA ………..2075*
19.(18) LISICKI ……….. 1900*
20.(23) STOSUR ………….1900*
21.(12) BOUCHARD ………..1882*
22.(25) KUZNETSOVA ………1866*
23.(21) KEYS ……………1860*
24.(22) BENCIC ………….1860*
25.(24) AZARENKA ………..1832*
26.(26) PENNETTA ………..1787*
27.(30) JANKOVIC ………..1685*
28.(27) CORNET ………….1615*
29.(28) Peng ……………1602
30.(31) BEGU ……………1436*
Draws
Wimbledon — Week of June 29
1 S Williams
Gasparyan (Q)
Babos
Cetkovska (Q)
Hantuchova
Cibulkova
Watson
32 Garcia
19 Errani
Schiavone
Krunic
Vinci
Erakovic
Putintseva
Brengle
16 V Williams
9 Suarez Navarro
Ostapenko (WC)
Dulgheru
Mladenovic
Flipkens
Beck
Kontaveit (WC)
23 Azarenka
30 Bencic
Pironkova
Diatchenko
Friedsam
Van Uytvanck
Mattek-Sands (Q)
Xu (Q)
7 Ivanovic
4 Sharapova
Konta (WC)
Hogenkamp (Q)
Wang
Gibbs
Tsurenko
Gavrilova
29 Begu
24 Pennetta
Diyas
Zhu
Sasnovich (Q)
Duque-Marino
Broady (WC)
Rogers
14 Petkovic
11 Ka Pliskova
Falconi
Vandeweghe
Schmiedlova
Gallovits-Hall
U Radwanska
Kovinic
22 Stosur
27 Strycova
Stephens
Hercog
Davis
Hsieh (Q)
Kanepi
Riske
6 Safarova
5 Wozniacki
S Zheng
Siniakova
Allertova
Arruabarrena
Parmentier
Pereira
31 Giorgi
20 Muguruza
Lepchenko
Lucic-Baroni
Shvedova
Pavlyuchenkova
Barthel
Witthoeft
10 Kerber
15 Bacsinszky
Goerges
Karatantcheva
Soler-Espinosa
Larsson
McHale
Gajdosova
18 Lisicki
26 Kuznetsova
Siegemund (Q)
Kr Pliskova
Smitkova
Puig
Niculescu
Cepelova
3 Halep
8 Makarova
Vickery (Q)
Knapp
Rybarikova
Mitu
Govortsova (Q)
Konjuh
25 Cornet
21 Keys
Voegele
Wickmayer
Kulichkova
Maria
Jovanovski
Duan (Q)
12 Bouchard
13 A Radwanska
Hradecka
Tomljanovic
Koukalova
Paszek (Q)
Dellacqua
Doi
17 Svitolina
28 Jankovic
Vesnina
Rodina
Robson (WC)
Linette
Nara
Bertens
2 Kvitova
Topics: All England Lawn Tennis, Ladies tennis, tennis update, Wimbledon 2015, Wta
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