* Tipsarevic still can’t go deep; loses marathon to Estrella Burgos in Munich
* Stepanek wins only three games in second match of comeback
* Federer cruises in Istanbul opener; Kukushkin upset
* Another day, another clay loss for Feliciano Lopez; out to Haase in Estoril
* Mayer loses to Almagro; Gasquet, Kyrgios win
Singles – First Round: P Andujar def. J Souza 6-4 6-4
A nice bounce-back for Pablo Andujar from his Barcelona loss, but it isn’t yet enough points to count; he needs one more win to add any points, and at least two to improve his ranking.
Singles – Second Round: (3) R Bautista Agut def. (Q) R Stepanek 6-0 6-3
They say the second match back from injury is the toughest, and it certainly seems to have been true for Radek Stepanek. Still, he won his first round, and he won in qualifying; on the whole, it’s a promising comeback after half a year away. For Roberto Bautista Agut, the result makes no difference; he needs a final to budge his ranking.
Singles – Second Round: (4) D Goffin def. S Bolelli 7-6(7-5) 6-7(4-7) 6-1
No move yet for David Goffin, either, but if he can win his next match, he’ll very likely hit the Top Twenty.
Singles – Second Round: (5) P Kohlschreiber def. (WC) A Zverev 6-2 6-4
Philipp Kohlschreiber shows who is the top German — and, in the process, defends his points and makes it just about certain that he will hit the Top 25.
Singles – Second Round: V Estrella Burgos def. (WC) J Tipsarevic 6-4 6-7(1-7) 7-5
Did we say second matches back are the toughest? That’s certainly been true for Janko Tipsarevic; he has won his opener at all three of his events, and lost second round each time. Still, he adds another twenty points, which should take him from #635 to around #530. For Victor Estella Burgos, this really ought to spell a Top Fifty spot.
Doubles – First Round: (1) Peya/Soares def. Stakhovsky/Troicki 5-7 7-5 10-4
Still no signs of the magic coming back for Peya/Soares, but at least they won!
Doubles – First Round: (2) J Murray/Peers def. Estrella Burgos/Souza 6-3 6-2
Doubles – First Round: A Murray/Rojer def. (3) Klaasen/Rosol 7-5 6-2
Interesting to see both Murrays in the draw but not playing together. Unfortunately for those who like that sort of thing, they’re in opposite halves, so they can’t meet unless both teams make the final. To be sure, both looked pretty good….
Doubles – First Round: (4) Begemann/Knowle def. Cermak/Vesely 7-6(7-3) 6-4
Doubles – First Round: Paes/Stepanek def. Struff/Thiem 6-1 6-7(3-7) 10-5
Radek Stepanek’s singles may be rusty, but that’s a nice doubles result!
Doubles – First Round: Junaid/Shamasdin def. Fleming/Marray 6-3 2-6 16-14
Doubles – First Round: (WC) F Mayer/Moser def. Becker/Meffert 6-3 6-2
GREAT TO SEE FRANKIE MOSER GOT A WC AND WON HIS FIRST ROUND. WITHOUT A DOUBT ONE OF THE NICEST GUYS ON THE PRO TOUR.
Doubles – First Round: (WC) Zverev/Zverev def. Brown/Petzschner 6-4 6-4
Here, at least, we get a brothers doubles result — and a pretty good win for the Zverevs; this looks quite promising for them. Next up for them is Murray/Peers, so we’ll really see what they’re made of.
Estoril
Singles – Second Round: R Haase def. (1) F Lopez 4-6 7-6(7-2) 6-4
Feliciano Lopez made the final of Quito on clay this year. He made the quarterfinal at Houston. But he skipped Monte Carlo, lost in the Round of Sixteen at Barcelona, and now this. Clay was never his surface, but this is getting ridiculous. His #12 ranking is safe for now, but perhaps not for much longer.
Singles – Second Round: N Almagro def. (4) L Mayer 7-6(7-4) 6-2
It’s feeling more and more as if Nicolas Almagro is really and truly back, even if his ranking remains below #150. He knocks Leonardo Mayer out of the Top 25.
Singles – Second Round: (5) R Gasquet def. (Q) K de Schepper 6-2 6-3
About the score you’d expect of Kenny de Schepper on clay…. Richard Gasquet has yet to add any points. He next win counts, though, and a final might put him in the Top 25.
Singles – Second Round: (7) N Kyrgios def. F Krajinovic 6-3 6-3
These are all free points for Nick Kyrgios, so this ought to take him above #45.
Doubles – First Round: (1) M Lopez/Marrero def. (WC) Machado/Silva 7-6(7-5) 7-5
Doubles – First Round: (3) Fyrstenberg/Mirnyi def. Kretschmer/Satschko 4-6 6-4 10-4
Doubles – First Round: Emmrich/Siljestrom def. (4) Monroe/Sitak 6-0 3-6 10-7
Doubles – First Round: Almagro/Garcia-Lopez def. L Mayer/Ramos-Vinolas 6-1 6-2
Doubles – First Round: Elias/Sousa def. Kowalczyk/Zelenay 7-6(7-5) 7-6(9-7)
Doubles – Quarterfinal: (2) Huey/Lipsky def. Carreno Busta/A Gonzalez 6-1 6-2
Istanbul
Singles – Second Round: (1) R Federer def. J Nieminen 6-2 7-5
If Jarkko Nieminen hadn’t managed to beat Roger Federer before this, what were his odds in his current state of decline? Obviously there wasn’t much to it. These are all free points for Federer, but he of course won’t rise above his current #2.
The ATP reports that it is clay win #200 for Federer — which sounds a little less impressive when you realize that there are six other players who also have that many: Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer, Nicolas Almagro (who added #252 at Estoril on Wednesday) Tommy Robredo, Juan Monaco, and Albert Montanes — and that three of them (Nadal, Ferrer, and Robredo), like Federer, have two hundred or more on hardcourt as well as clay. On the other hand, most of them are pretty far behind Federer on grass and indoors….
Singles – Second Round: (4) S Giraldo def. (WC) A Rublev 6-4 1-6 6-3
Based on current rankings, Santiago Giraldo doesn’t deserve the #4 seed; he’s ranked a mere #50. And this isn’t enough to count for him. Still, it looks as if he’ll probably stay Top Fifty, and if he can win even one more match, he’ll start to rebuild.
Singles – Second Round: D Gimeno-Traver def. (6) M Kukushkin 6-3 6-3
What a spring for Daniel Gimeno-Traver! This means no Top Fifty spot for Mikhail Kukushkin, but Gimeno-Traver, who is defending semifinalist points, earns enough that he’ll likely remain above #70.
Singles – Second Round: (8) D Schwartzman def. J Melzer 6-0 6-2
Looking at that score, we can’t help but wonder if perhaps it’s time for Jurgen Melzer to give up on singles and become a doubles specialist. After all, his partner Philipp Petzschner is back in action, and they’re still doing well as a team.
Doubles – First Round: (3) Guccione/Sa def. (WC) Altuna/Basilashvili 6-3 6-2
Doubles – First Round: Bury/Gabashvili def. F Martin/Raja 6-2 6-3
Doubles – First Round: Golubev/Istomin def. Kukushkin/Nedovyesov 6-3 6-4 .
Doubles – Quarterfinal: Albot/Lajovic def. (2) Marach/Oswald 6-6(9-11) 6-2 10-8
Winning Isn’t Everything
Over the last few weeks, we’ve been digging into 2014 year-end statistics looking for what they told us about the players. Today we thought we’d look at winning percentage.
We’ll give you the winning percentages at the ATP level, but we thought we’d do some twists. We’re going to look at everyone who played an ATP match, and rank them. And then we’re going to compare that with their ATP rankings. The list below is in order based on win percentage, but it also shows ATP rankings.
There were, incidentally, ninety different players who played at the ATP level but had no wins. Four — Arguello, Edmund, Ilhan, and Odesnik — went 0-5. Eight others were 0-3, and 17 were 0-2. The other sixty showed up, played their one match, and vanished.
Of the winless players, Marcel Ilhan was the highest-ranked at year-end, ending up at #104. #116 Andreas Beck was second.
The list below gives us the Top Hundred in ATP winning percentage:
1. Djokovic: 61-8.(88.4%). ATP #1
2. Federer: 67-11.(85.9%). ATP #2
3. Nadal: 48-11.(81.4%). ATP #3
4. Nishikori: 52-14.(78.8%). ATP #5
5. Murray: 56-19.(74.7%). ATP #6
6. Dimitrov: 49-18.(73.1%). ATP #11
7. Berdych: 53-21.(71.6%). ATP #7
8. Cilic: 51-21.(70.8%). ATP #9
9. Raonic: 47-20.(70.1%). ATP #8
10. del Potro: 7-3.(70%). ATP #138
11. Ferrer: 54-24.(69.2%). ATP #10
12. Bautista Agut: 44-20.(68.8%). ATP #15
13. Wawrinka: 35-16.(68.6%). ATP #4
14. Monfils: 32-15.(68.1%). ATP #18
15. Bhambri: 2-1.(66.7%). ATP #249
15. Gicquel: 2-1.(66.7%). ATP #335
15. Olivo: 2-1.(66.7%). ATP #272
15. Bachinger: 4-2.(66.7%). ATP #141
15. Troicki: 8-4.(66.7%). ATP #102
20. Gulbis: 41-21.(66.1%). ATP #13
21. Tsonga: 33-17.(66%). ATP #12
22. Isner: 37-20.(64.9%). ATP #19
23. Klizan: 23-13.(63.9%). ATP #34
24. Robredo: 43-26.(62.3%). ATP #17
25. Gasquet: 29-18.(61.7%). ATP #26
26. Lopez: 40-25.(61.5%). ATP #14
27. Anderson: 38-24.(61.3%). ATP #16
28. Goffin: 22-14.(61.1%). ATP #22
29. Almagro: 14-9.(60.9%). ATP #71
30. Phau: 3-2.(60%). ATP #364
30. Fognini: 36-24.(60%). ATP #20
32. Kohlschreiber: 36-25.(59%). ATP #24
33. Cuevas: 17-12.(58.6%). ATP #30
34. Querrey: 26-19.(57.8%). ATP #35
35. Sock: 27-20.(57.4%). ATP #42
36. Mayer, L: 26-20.(56.5%). ATP #28
36. Verdasco: 26-20.(56.5%). ATP #33
38. Dolgopolov: 27-21.(56.3%). ATP #23
38. Karlovic: 36-28.(56.3%). ATP #27
40. Haas: 14-11.(56%). ATP #77
41. Hewitt: 19-15.(55.9%). ATP #50
42. Chardy: 33-27.(55%). ATP #29
43. Coric: 6-5.(54.5%). ATP #91
44. Mayer, F: 7-6.(53.8%). ATP #147
45. Monaco: 22-19.(53.7%). ATP #62
46. Bellucci: 15-13.(53.6%). ATP #65
47. Kyrgios: 8-7.(53.3%). ATP #52
47. Lu: 24-21.(53.3%). ATP #38
49. Benneteau: 25-22.(53.2%). ATP #25
50. Tomic: 17-15.(53.1%). ATP #56
51. Istomin: 27-24.(52.9%). ATP #49
52. Simon: 27-25.(51.9%). ATP #21
53. Berlocq: 17-16.(51.5%). ATP #72
54. Becker: 27-26.(50.9%). ATP #40
54. Rosol: 27-26.(50.9%). ATP #31
56. Giraldo: 28-27.(50.9%). ATP #32
57. Davydenko, P: 1-1.(50%). ATP #391
57. Dutra Silva: 1-1.(50%). ATP #284
57. Hernych: 1-1.(50%). ATP #199
57. Krajicek: 1-1.(50%). ATP #152
57. Kubler: 1-1.(50%). ATP #136
57. Machado: 1-1.(50%). ATP #291
57. Michon: 1-1.(50%). ATP #208
57. Milojevic: 1-1.(50%). ATP #375
57. Puetz: 1-1.(50%). ATP #185
57. Ramanathan: 1-1.(50%). ATP #215
57. Sorensen: 1-1.(50%). ATP #221
57. WangC: 1-1.(50%). ATP #390
57. Kudryavtsev: 2-2.(50%). ATP #119
57. Marti: 2-2.(50%). ATP #269
57. Saville: 2-2.(50%). ATP #158
57. Carballes Baena: 3-3.(50%). ATP #168
57. Krajinovic: 4-4.(50%). ATP #101
57. Copil: 6-6.(50%). ATP #172
57. de Bakker: 6-6.(50%). ATP #144
57. Kuznetsov, An: 8-8.(50%). ATP #93
57. Andujar: 22-22.(50%). ATP #41
57. Thiem: 22-22.(50%). ATP #39
79. Garcia-Lopez: 25-26.(49%). ATP #36
80. Matosevic: 21-22.(48.8%). ATP #75
81. Johnson: 19-20.(48.7%). ATP #37
82. Stepanek: 16-17.(48.5%). ATP #68
83. Janowicz: 22-24.(47.8%). ATP #43
84. Estrella Burgos: 8-9.(47.1%). ATP #78
85. Nieminen: 23-26.(46.9%). ATP #73
86. Struff: 15-17.(46.9%). ATP #59
87. Gojowczyk: 7-8.(46.7%). ATP #79
88. Berankis: 6-7.(46.2%). ATP #86
88. Young: 18-21.(46.2%). ATP #57
90. Sela: 16-19.(45.7%). ATP #99
91. Kavcic: 5-6.(45.5%). ATP #105
92. Pospisil: 19-23.(45.2%). ATP #53
93. Lajovic: 14-17.(45.2%). ATP #69
93. Vesely: 14-17.(45.2%). ATP #66
95. Brown: 13-16.(44.8%). ATP #89
95. Montanes: 13-16.(44.8%). ATP #108
97. Wang, J: 4-5.(44.4%). ATP #124
98. Stakhovsky: 15-19.(44.1%). ATP #58
99. Lorenzi: 11-14.(44%). ATP #64
99. Seppi: 22-28.(44%). ATP #45
Of course, there are a lot of players in there with very few events — eg. note Bhambri and Gicquel and Olivo at #15 but with only one event. The really fascinating thing is, even if we allow that, there are only 57 players with at-least-even records at the ATP level. And fifteen of them played only one event! There are some pretty big names below the 50% mark: Stepanek (#82), Janowicz (#83), Nieminen (#85), Pospisil (#92), Seppi (#99), Youzhny (#101, which perhaps explains why he’s doing so badly this year), Granollers (#115), Sousa (#116), Haase (#124).
The thing that really interested us, though, was Wawrinka at #13. We had the same Top Three in ATP rankings and winning percentages, and eight of the same Top Ten (and one of the guys who hit the Top Ten in winning percentage was Dimitrov, who was #11 in the ATP rankings, and the other was Juan Martin del Potro, who probably would have been Top Ten had he been healthy). But it’s pretty obvious that Wawrinka’s ranking depended very much on the Australian Open. No wonder he’s down around #10 these days.
So we wondered how well these percentages correlated. It turns out that the correlation coefficient between rankings and winning percentage is a rather pitiful -0.53. We would expect it to be negative, because the a high winning percentage should mean a low ranking, so the minus sign is all right. But correlation coefficients range between -1 and 1, with 1 being perfect correlation (and -1 being perfect inverse correlation; we don’t care about the sign; we care about whether the number is close to either +1 or -1). A correlation of -0.53 is pretty miserable.
Of course, that includes all those guys who hardly played at the ATP level. To control for that, we dropped everyone with fewer than twelve ATP matches. That left us with 123 players (with del Potro being the top player dropped), and took us to a much more reasonable correlation coefficient of -.97. That’s actually very good. But not perfect. So we thought we’d look at the players (among those with at least twelve matches) with the biggest discrepancies between their two rankings.
First, here are the fifteen players whose win percentage rankings are better than their ATP rankings by the widest ratios:
Troicki. ATP: #102. Win%: #14. Ratio: 7.3
Mayer, F. ATP: #147. Win%: #37. Ratio: 4
Copil. ATP: #172. Win%: #50. Ratio: 3.4
Almagro. ATP: #71. Win%: #24. Ratio: 3
de Bakker. ATP: #144. Win%: #50. Ratio: 2.9
Brands. ATP: #323. Win%: #122. Ratio: 2.6
Davydenko. ATP: #251. Win%: #98. Ratio: 2.6
Haas. ATP: #77. Win%: #34. Ratio: 2.3
Ebden. ATP: #237. Win%: #120. Ratio: 2
Klizan. ATP: #34. Win%: #18. Ratio: 1.9
Kuznetsov, An. ATP: #93. Win%: #50. Ratio: 1.9
Dimitrov. ATP: #11. Win%: #6. Ratio: 1.8
Volandri. ATP: #217. Win%: #124. Ratio: 1.8
Harrison. ATP: #190. Win%: #113. Ratio: 1.7
Bellucci. ATP: #65. Win%: #39. Ratio: 1.7
And here are the fifteen players whose ATP rankings are better than their Win Percentage rankings:
Wawrinka. ATP: #4. Win%: #12. Ratio: 3
Simon. ATP: #21. Win%: #45. Ratio: 2.1
Carreno-Busta. ATP: #51. Win%: #106. Ratio: 2.1
Mannarino. ATP: #44. Win%: #85. Ratio: 1.9
Granollers. ATP: #46. Win%: #87. Ratio: 1.9
Benneteau. ATP: #25. Win%: #42. Ratio: 1.7
Sousa, J. ATP: #54. Win%: #88. Ratio: 1.6
Seppi. ATP: #45. Win%: #73. Ratio: 1.6
Youzhny. ATP: #48. Win%: #75. Ratio: 1.6
Johnson. ATP: #37. Win%: #57. Ratio: 1.5
Giraldo. ATP: #32. Win%: #49. Ratio: 1.5
Garcia-Lopez. ATP: #36. Win%: #55. Ratio: 1.5
Rosol. ATP: #31. Win%: #47. Ratio: 1.5
Lopez. ATP: #14. Win%: #21. Ratio: 1.5
Golubev. ATP: #74. Win%: #111. Ratio: 1.5
We can’t say we’re too surprised to see Wawrinka at the top of the “not so good” list. No really big surprises in the rest of the list, either. On the whole, as a measure of win percentage, the ATP rankings work pretty well.
Estimated ATP World Tour Rankings
As of April 29, 2015
Rank &
Prior…Player………..Points
1..(1) Djokovic……….13845
2..(2) Federer…………8430
3..(3) Murray………….6060
4..(4) Nadal…………..5390
5..(5) Nishikori……….5280
6..(6) Raonic………….5070
7..(7) Berdych…………4960
8..(8) Ferrer………….4490
9..(9) Wawrinka………..3495
10.(10) Cilic…………..3405
11.(11) Dimitrov………..2985
12.(12) Lopez…………..2380
13.(13) Simon…………..2255
14.(14) Tsonga………….2045
15.(15) Monfils…………2020
16.(16) Bautista Agut……1985
17.(17) Anderson………..1960
18.(18) Isner…………..1765
18.(19) Robredo…………1765
20.(20) Gulbis………….1730
21.(21) Goffin………….1705
22.(22) Karlovic………..1470
23.(23) Cuevas………….1442
24.(26) Kohlschreiber……1395
25.(27) Tomic…………..1390
26.(25) Mayer…………..1352
27.(28) Gasquet…………1330
28.(30) Mannarino……….1258
29.(31) Garcia-Lopez…….1255
30.(24) Klizan………….1190
Munich — Week of April 27
……………..QF
1 Murray
9 Rosol
3 Bautista Agut..(3)Bautista Agut
6 Tomic……….Estrella Burgos
5 Kohlschreiber..(5)Kohlschreiber
4 Goffin………(4)Goffin
8 Fognini
2 Monfils
STATUS OF SEEDS:
1 Murray
2 Monfils
3 Bautista Agut
4 Goffin
5 Kohlschreiber
6 Tomic………..lost 1R (Tipsarevic)
7 Klizan……….WITHDREW
8 Fognini
9 Rosol
Estoril — Week of April 27
1 Lopez……..Haase
7 Kyrgios……(7)Kyrgios
3 Robredo
8 Muller
5 Gasquet……(5)Gasquet
4 L Mayer……Almagro
6 Chardy
2 Anderson
STATUS OF SEEDS:
1 Lopez…….lost 2R (Haase)
2 Anderson
3 Robredo
4 L Mayer…..lost 2R (Almagro)
5 Gasquet
6 Chardy
7 Kyrgios
8 Muller
Istanbul — Week of April 27
…………….QF
1 Federer…….(1)Federer
6 Kukushkin…..Gimeno-Traver
4 Giraldo…….(4)Giraldo
8 Schwartzman…(8)Schwartzman
7 Youzhny
3 Cuevas
5 Haider-Maurer
2 Dimitrov
STATUS OF SEEDS:
1 Federer
2 Dimitrov
3 Cuevas
4 Giraldo
5 Haider-Maurer……lost 1R (Dodig)
6 Kukushkin……….lost 2R (Gimeno-Traver)
7 Youzhny…………lost 1R (Bellucci)
8 Schwartzman
WEDNESDAY
MUNICH
Singles – First Round
P Andujar def. J Souza 6-4 6-4
Singles – Second Round
(3) R Bautista Agut def. (Q) R Stepanek 6-0 6-3
(4) D Goffin def. S Bolelli 7-6(7-5) 6-7(4-7) 6-1
(5) P Kohlschreiber def. (WC) A Zverev 6-2 6-4
V Estrella Burgos def. (WC) J Tipsarevic 6-4 6-7(1-7) 7-5
Doubles – First Round
(1) Peya/Soares def. Stakhovsky/Troicki 5-7 7-5 10-4
(2) J Murray/Peers def. Estrella Burgos/Souza 6-3 6-2
A Murray/Rojer def. (3) Klaasen/Rosol 7-5 6-2
(4) Begemann/Knowle def. Cermak/Vesely 7-6(7-3) 6-4
Paes/Stepanek def. Struff/Thiem 6-1 6-7(3-7) 10-5
Junaid/Shamasdin def. Fleming/Marray 6-3 2-6 16-14
(WC) F Mayer/Moser def. Becker/Meffert 6-3 6-2
(WC) Zverev/Zverev def. Brown/Petzschner 6-4 6-4
ESTORIL
Singles – Second Round
R Haase def. (1) F Lopez 4-6 7-6(7-2) 6-4
N Almagro def. (4) L Mayer 7-6(7-4) 6-2
(5) R Gasquet def. (Q) K de Schepper 6-2 6-3
(7) N Kyrgios def. F Krajinovic 6-3 6-3
Doubles – First Round
(1) M Lopez/Marrero def. (WC) Machado/Silva 7-6(7-5) 7-5
(3) Fyrstenberg/Mirnyi def. Kretschmer/Satschko 4-6 6-4 10-4
Emmrich/Siljestrom def. (4) Monroe/Sitak 6-0 3-6 10-7
Almagro/Garcia-Lopez def. L Mayer/Ramos-Vinolas 6-1 6-2
Elias/Sousa def. Kowalczyk/Zelenay 7-6(7-5) 7-6(9-7)
Doubles – Quarterfinal
(2) Huey/Lipsky def. Carreno Busta/A Gonzalez 6-1 6-2
ISTANBUL
Singles – Second Round
(1) R Federer def. J Nieminen 6-2 7-5
(4) S Giraldo def. (WC) A Rublev 6-4 1-6 6-3
D Gimeno-Traver def. (6) M Kukushkin 6-3 6-3
(8) D Schwartzman def. J Melzer 6-0 6-2
Doubles – First Round
(3) Guccione/Sa def. (WC) Altuna/Basilashvili 6-3 6-2
Bury/Gabashvili def. F Martin/Raja 6-2 6-3
Golubev/Istomin def. Kukushkin/Nedovyesov 6-3 6-4 .
Doubles – Quarterfinal
Albot/Lajovic def. (2) Marach/Oswald 6-6(9-11) 6-2 10-8
***
CONTENT VIA Bob LARSON TENNIS NEWS SERVICE.
Topics: Atp World Tour, BMW Open, Estoril Open, Munich, Roger Federer, Sports, TEB BNP Istanbul Open, Tennis
MENS PRO #TENNIS TOUR NEWS FROM #MUNICH #EstorilOpen #IstanbulOpen @rogerfederer WINS OPENER. RESULTS, SCORES… http://t.co/wMSh0X7o19