by Wendy M. Grossman who was at Friday’s press event
As the year ends and the top eight players assemble in London there’s one question everyone wants to ask them: is this the moment of generational change? Are the Big Four still really the Big Four or are they on the way out, to be replaced by younger “New Balls”?
The reason for asking this, of course, is that this year sees three newcomers to the tour finals: Milos Raonic, Marin Cilic, and Kei Nishikori. For the first time since 2003, two of the majors were not won by Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, or Murray: the Australian Open went to Stan Wawrinka and the U. S. Open to Cilic. That tournament’s final was the first since 2004 not to feature any of the Big Four: Cilic defeated Nishikori. For much of this year, Murray has been drifting around the bottom of the top ten, while Nadal hasn’t had much luck outside the clay season: he lost in the first week at Wimbledon and is now out after appendix surgery. Many of this elite group mention Grigor Dimitrov as knocking on the door to join them, too.
“Generation” is an elastic concept. It’s fair to say that Nishikori, 24, and Raonic, 23, are just arriving at their prime. But Cilic, 26 and adjusting to life after a first Slam title, is more in mid-career, and Wawrinka is 29, close to the witching age everyone used to think signaled career-end. Wawrinka, who is playing this event for only the second time, is, in fact, the same age as Thomas Berdych, who’s qualified for the fifth year in a row. People talk about Federer, at 33, as ancient, and yet he has a (rather slight, but non-zero) chance to end the year at number one.
Asked at today’s press conference how he does it, Federer noted that he tries to keep a balance: it’s important to work hard on fitness, get enough sleep, massages, and stretching — and yet not let those less enjoyable details overwhelm the tennis. “If you do too much you lose, in my opinion, the motivation to play. I try to keep the right balance to keep the mind hungry to play.” Asked how he manages family life, Federer talked about negotiating and spending as much time with them as he can on off-days and in vacations, and then painted a little picture of himself holding each of the new twin boys in turn for a half hour while on the massage table. “Depends on how tired I am and how everyone else is feeling.”
First up for Federer is Raonic, who beat him for the first time last week in Paris. “As I’m feeling good, I’m glad for the chance of a rematch,” Federer said, adding that he regards the first round robin match as “crucial” because if you lose that match making the semis is no longer entirely in your own hands.
Raonic’s comment: “I’ll have to find my game quickly.” The win in Paris was Raonic’s first win over Federer, and one of only a relative handful — fifteen overall, three this year — over a top ten player. Of the Big Four, he has wins only over Federer and Murray. Key to achieving the Paris win, he said, was “Understanding what I need to do in specific situations. Having a clear vision how to go about things.” Vision by itself is not, of course, enough: “You still have to execute. It’s about getting more consistent in those kinds of situations.”
By contrast, Nishikori has made a bigger step up in terms of quality wins. He credited his coaches, Michael Chang and Dante Bottini, with pushing him to become “a little more aggressive,” but besides that, he said, “All the little things are getting better” — more consistent groundstrokes, more frequent approaches to the net, and “beginning to believe in myself, telling myself I can beat them.” The confidence from his US Open wins over Djokovic, Wawrinka, and other top players gave him the confidence that took him on to two tournament titles after that.
Cilic, like Wawrinka earlier in the year, is still figuring out his new status as a Grand Slam champion. He does, he said, feel the other players look at him differently. “I feel they respect my tennis more.” Since his US Open win, he feels that opponents are taking greater risks against him. “I know the guys need to play at their top level to beat me, but it’s also not easy to confront with match after match…. It’s not easy to go into matches against some players with big shots that can hurt you a lot.”
Despite the new faces, everyone is conscious that the year could very well end looking much like service as usual. Wawrinka noted this symmetry: “This year has already seen some big surprises, but I still think if you look at Novak, Roger, Rafa if he’s uninjured — they are still stronger than the rest of the players.” Raonic agreed: “There are guys knocking on the door in a lot of ways, but nobody’s definitely kicked that door open.”
Kicking it open is especially hard to do, because, as Berdych said, “It’s tough with four at the top. If it were only one, there’d be other winners, but it’s not….” Berdych seems to calculate his opportunities carefully: “There are just Grand Slam champions in my group,” he said, meaning that his half of the round robin includes Wimbledon, Australian, and U. S. champions Djokovic, Wawrinka, and Cilic, “so it’s not easy. Novak has pretty much one [semifinal] spot taken, and we’re all going to fight for the other.”
The lone outlier this year has been Murray, whose early results suffered after he ended 2013 with back surgery and who as a result has had to scramble to qualify for this event. This fall he played six tournaments, in a row, leading some to wonder whether he’ll be too tired to play well. “I don’t know where I am. It’s tough to judge until I’m out on the match court,” he said. But playing all those events was his idea. After losing in New York, he told his coaches he wanted to play a lot of matches and get back to winning to set up well for the beginning of next year. The result is here he is, with a chance to end this year at number four. A week from now we may well be seeing the Big Four reunited as the top four and dominating the final weekend. Business as usual — or just a pause before the Big Change? We won’t really know until 2015.
– Wendy M. Grossman
Estimated ATP World Tour Rankings
As of November 7, 2014
Rank &
Prior…Player………..Points
1..(1) Djokovic……….10010
2..(2) Federer…………8700
3..(3) Nadal…………..6835
4..(4) Wawrinka………..4895
5..(5) Nishikori……….4625
6..(6) Murray………….4475
7..(7) Berdych…………4465
8..(8) Raonic………….4440
9..(9) Cilic…………..4150
10.(10) Ferrer………….4045
11.(11) Dimitrov………..3645
12.(12) Tsonga………….2740
13.(13) Gulbis………….2455
14.(14) Lopez…………..2130
15.(15) Bautista Agut……2110
16.(16) Anderson………..2080
17.(17) Robredo…………2015
18.(18) Isner…………..1890
19.(19) Monfils…………1825
20.(20) Fognini…………1790
21.(21) Simon…………..1730
22.(22) Goffin………….1599
23.(23) Dolgopolov………1455
24.(24) Kohlschreiber……1415
25.(25) Mayer…………..1389
26.(26) Benneteau……….1365
27.(27) Gasquet…………1350
28.(28) Karlovic………..1320
29.(29) Chardy………….1240
30.(30) Rosol…………..1210
London Championships — Week of November 9
GROUP A
……………DJOKO…WAWRI…BERDY…CILIC…W/L…Sets
(1)Djokovic….XXXXX…=====…=====…=====…0/0….0/0
(3)Wawrinka….=====…XXXXX…=====…=====…0/0….0/0
(6)Berdych…..=====…=====…XXXXX…=====…0/0….0/0
(8)Cilic…….=====…=====…=====…XXXXX…0/0….0/0
GROUP B
……………FEDER…NISHI…MURRA…RAONI…W/L…Sets
(2)Federer…..XXXXX…=====…=====…=====…0/0….0/0
(4)Nishikori…=====…XXXXX…=====…=====…0/0….0/0
(5)Murray……=====…=====…XXXXX…=====…0/0….0/0
(7)Raonic……=====…=====…=====…XXXXX…0/0….0/0
London
Content via Bob LARSON tennis news service
Topics: 02 Arena, Barclays ATP World Tour, London
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