MEN’S TENNIS: A QUICK LOOK @ THE BARCLAYS CHAMPIONSHIPS / FEDERER & DJOKOVIC ARE THE GUESS

Written by: Staff on 5th November 2014

MEN'S TENNIS: A QUICK LOOK @ THE BARCLAYS CHAMPIONSHIPS / FEDERER & DJOKOVIC ARE THE GUESS

epa04049727 Roger Federer of Switzerland in action against Ilija Bozoljac of Serbia during the first round Davis Cup World Group match between Serbia and Switzerland at the Spens Sport Center, in Novi Sad, Serbia, 31 January 2014. EPA/KOCA SULEJMANOVIC |

THIS IS SUBJECTIVE BUT BASED ON A LOT OF THOUGHT

Men’s Look Forward: London

If by some chance you happen to think someone other than Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer will win London, now is the time to place your bets. You’ll get good odds.

Novak Djokovic of Serbia hits a return against Alejandro Gonzalez of Columbia at the BNP Paribas Open tennis in Indian Wells, California, USA, 11 March 2014. EPA/JOHN G. MABANGLO

Djokovic has won the last two editions of the event. Federer won the two before that. That takes us to 2009. The winner that year was Nikolay Davydenko, who is retired. Djokovic won in 2008, Federer in 2007 and 2006. In 2005, David Nalbandian won the event. He’s retired. Federer won in 2004 and 2003. In 2002 and 2001, Lleyton Hewitt won the title; he isn’t here. And every champion before that is retired (and most of them are in the Hall of Fame).

In other words, Djokovic and Federer have, between them, won four in a row, seven of the last eight, and nine of the last eleven; they are the only past champions in the field. And their biggest rival, Rafael Nadal, isn’t here, and fully three of the other six players in the field have never been here before.

On top of that, Federer and Djokovic have between them 129 career titles. The other six players here have just less than half of that, a combined 64 — almost half of them belonging to Andy Murray (who has 31).

Of course, some of that is a matter of youth. Milos Raonic and Kei Nishikori, two of our first-timers, are 23 and 24, respectively, and just coming into their primes. Our other first-timer, Marin Cilic, is 26 — younger than Murray or Djokovic, and much younger than Federer; our first-timers are the youngest of the players here. In this year when two of the four Slams went to players who are not members of the so-called Big Four, perhaps we’re seeing a changing of the guard.

Roger Federer of Switzerland reacts to a point against Novak Djokovic of Serbia during their semifinal match for the Dubai Duty Free Tennis ATP Championships in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 28 February 2014. EPA/ALI HAIDER

If so, it looks as if Federer is going to bear the brunt of the change. His group appears much tougher, containing as it does Murray (who of course is the only other player in the field with multiple Slams), Nishikori (who, as yesterday’s feature on quality points showed, has the best rate of big wins of anyone on the ATP this year other than Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal), and Raonic (who was the player who beat Federer at Paris as Federer tried to earn the #1 ranking). Djokovic’s group, by contrast, consists of Wawrinka (who is in an awful slump and doesn’t like the surface anyway), Berdych (who likes the surface just fine but never wins the big ones), and Cilic (who has spent the whole fall complaining of being tired). It’s hard to imagine Djokovic not winning his group, and even harder to imagine him doing so badly that he doesn’t make the semifinal. As for the other semifinalist from Group A, we haven’t a clue. Nor would we want to bet on who will win Group B.

There isn’t much to talk about in the doubles; the Bryans of course dominated the sport, and the #2 team in terms of rankings, Nestor/Zimonjic, is splitting — although, given Nestor’s history, that might be a sign that they’re going to win the event. But it won’t make any rankings difference; the Bryans will end up on top. If there is a stealth team to watch out for, it’s probably Rojer/Tecau — with eight titles as a team, they’re second only to the Bryans this year. That’s by far the best either of them has ever done; they seem to be much more than the sum of their parts. We’ve no idea whether that will help them against other top teams.

The Rankings

It’s always fun when the year-end Championships has the chance to settle the year-end rankings. But that’s not at all likely to come up this year. Yes, the #1 ranking is theoretically in play. But Djokovic leads Federer by 1310 points. That means that the only way Federer can rise to #1 this week is if he wins London without loss of a match and Djokovic goes 0-3. Federer could add a few more points in the Davis Cup final, but still, if Djokovic can win even two matches, or if Federer fails to win the title, Djokovic will be the year-end #1.

Below that, things are a lot more fluid. We know that Rafael Nadal will end the year at #3, although perhaps not by much — but from Wawrinka at #4 to Cilic at #9 is only 745 points. Given that this is a 1500 point event, that means that any of the other six players here can end up at any ranking from #4 to #9! In practice, it’s unlikely that Wawrinka and Nishikori will end up below #7, but that’s about all we can say. In particular, Murray, Berdych, and Raonic are only 35 point apart — an effective tie; whoever wins more matches ends up on top. Cilic, 290 points off the pace, is the only one with a specific minimum required to move: He has to win at least two matches, and because the guys he is chasing are likely to pick up some points as well, we’d guess he would need a final to rise above #8.

RANKINGS

Estimated ATP World Tour Rankings

As of November 5, 2014

Rank &

Prior…Player………..Points

1..(1) Djokovic……….10010

2..(2) Federer…………8700

3..(3) Nadal…………..6835

4..(4) Wawrinka………..4895

5..(5) Nishikori……….4625

6..(6) Murray………….4475

7..(7) Berdych…………4465

8..(8) Raonic………….4440

9..(9) Cilic…………..4150

10.(10) Ferrer………….4045

11.(11) Dimitrov………..3645

12.(12) Tsonga………….2740

13.(13) Gulbis………….2455

14.(14) Lopez…………..2130

15.(15) Bautista Agut……2110

16.(16) Anderson………..2080

17.(17) Robredo…………2015

18.(18) Isner…………..1890

19.(19) Monfils…………1825

20.(20) Fognini…………1790

21.(21) Simon…………..1730

22.(22) Goffin………….1599

23.(23) Dolgopolov………1455

24.(24) Kohlschreiber……1415

25.(25) Mayer…………..1389

26.(26) Benneteau……….1365

27.(27) Gasquet…………1350

28.(28) Karlovic………..1320

29.(29) Chardy………….1240

30.(30) Rosol…………..1210

DRAWS

London Championships — Week of November 5

GROUP A

(1)Djokovic

(3)Wawrinka

(6)Berdych

(8)Cilic

GROUP B

(2)Federer

(4)Nishikori

(5)Murray

(7)Raonic

***

CONTENT VIA Bob LARSON TENNIS NEWS

Topics: Atp World Tour, Barclays Championships, Federer, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Tennis

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10sBalls_com says:

November 5, 2014 at 6:58 pm

MEN’S #TENNIS: A QUICK LOOK @ THE BARCLAYS CHAMPIONSHIPS / @rogerfederer & @DjokerNole ARE THE GUESS- http://t.co/aKF4eMffR4 #Federer