* Berdych, Dimitrov hoping to improve London chances in Stockholm final
* Vienna also features a match with London significance: Ferrer to face Murray
* Bautista Agut deals another blow to Gulbis’s chances; will face Cilic in Moscow
Moscow
Singles – Semifinal: (2) M Cilic def. M Kukushkin 4-6 6-3 6-2
Mikhail Kukushkin really, really tried to defend his points. So close! But it appears he’ll be falling to around #90. Marin Cilic is still at #8 — but, of course, he’s going to London, so he has a lot of chances to go higher.
Singles – Semifinal: (5) R Bautista Agut def. (3) E Gulbis 6-4 6-4
We keep crossing Ernests Gulbis out of London, and it’s never quite officially true. But this makes it incredibly close (more in the Feature). Roberto Bautista Agut can’t quite make London, but with this, he’s up to #14. That’s as high as he can go this week, and probably this year, but still, what a breakthrough season!
Stockholm
Singles – Semifinal: (1) T Berdych def. (Q) M Bachinger 7-6(9-7) 6-4
Tomas Berdych still hasn’t earned anything that counts toward his ranking, or toward the Race. But he’s a strong #7, and if he wins the final, that will count.
Singles – Semifinal: (2) G Dimitrov def. B Tomic 6-3 7-5
This must be maddening for the London oddsmakers. All our serious contenders managed to win. But this is perhaps biggest for Grigor Dimitrov — he’s the last serious contender, and with this win, he’s finally starting to add points.
Doubles – Semifinal: (3) Butorac/Klaasen def. Murray/Peers 6-7(7-9) 6-3 10-6
This is important for London, too: Butorac/Klaasen are #8 in the Race, and this should help a little. Murray/Peers can forget it.
Doubles – Semifinal: Huey/Sock def. (WC) Brown/Siljestrom 6-1 6-4
Vienna
Singles – Semifinal: (1) (WC) D Ferrer def. (4) P Kohlschreiber 6-3 2-6 7-6(7-3)
We can’t ever recall calling a two and a half hour match “fast,” but considering how well these two move, getting done that soon is fairly efficient. The result leaves Philipp Kohlschreiber still at #23; David Ferrer is #5 for now, lower in the Race, but still trying. Now we just have to wait to see how much he has left.
Singles – Semifinal: (2) (WC) A Murray def. (Q) V Troicki 6-4 6-3
With all our Race contenders winning today, we can’t say that Andy Murray really helped his cause — but at least he didn’t hurt it. Viktor Troicki now has to decide just what to do about trying to get into the Australian Open. He’s close to direct entry, but perhaps not quite close enough. Should he schedule some Challengers, or stake everything on Paris? It’s clear he’ll earn direct entry if he can get into enough events in time.
Doubles – Semifinal: (WC) Melzer/Petzschner def. (4) S Gonzalez/Rosol 6-2 7-5
Men’s Look Forward: Basel, Valencia
This is the week we learn just how much trouble Novak Djokovic is in.
We can be pretty confident that Djokovic will have a solid indoor season. Whether that will be enough to let him hang on to the year-end #1 will depend on what sort of indoor season Roger Federer has. And Basel will be out big hint in that regard.
Plus, of course, we have the final weeks of the ATP Race. Last week didn’t really change much — a few players with no actual hope were eliminated, but entering last week, it was eleven serious contenders for eight spots, and it’s still eleven serious contenders for eight spots.
The draw at Basel is absolutely wild. Five of last week’s Top Ten, and six of the Top Fifteen — and then no one from #13 to #28. By the looks of things, the organizers went all-out to get London contenders and then quit trying. Roger Federer, who is not much short of royalty here, is the #1 seed — Djokovic is the only Top Ten player who didn’t sign up for an event this week. Rafael Nadal, bad appendix and all, is going to try to play; he’s the #2 seed (and was lucky enough to draw a qualifier for his first round opponent). Stan Wawrinka is #3 and in Federer’s half; Milos Raonic is #4. Grigor Dimitrov, our last serious London contender, is #5 and in Federer’s quarter — Federer could hardly have gotten a worse draw. The only other player in the field with any London chance at all is Ernests Gulbis, seeded #6 and in Nadal’s quarter. Then comes that big gap. David Goffin, ranked #28, is #7, with Ivo Karlovic #8. There obviously aren’t a lot of really threatening unseeded players, but Federer might face Jerzy Janowicz in round two, and Dimitrov will face Vasek Pospisil or Jarkko Nieminen in that round. Karlovic opens against Lukas Rosol, the top unseeded player — Rosol, in fact, just passed Karlovic to earn the #30 ranking; one might almost call them the joint #8 seed! Plus Goffin opens against fast-rising Dominic Thiem.
Valencia was supposed to be a very strong tournament until Marin Cilic and Kei Nishikori pulled out for “personal reasons.” Cilic’s personal reason is presumably “I’ve qualified for London; who needs it?” Nishikori hasn’t qualified, so we assume he had a genuine excuse, but still, his decision was probably influenced by the fact that his London spot is almost safe.
It’s still a pretty good field, with David Ferrer the #1 seed. Tomas Berdych took a wildcard to earn the #2 seed; Andy Murray took a wildcard to earn the #3 spot and a potential semifinal meeting with Ferrer. (The other wildcards? Pablo Carreno Busta. and Stefan Kozlov. No, we have no idea why they’d choose the 16-year-old American Kozlov, who is ranked below #400; it must be local connections.) Feliciano Lopez is #4, with John Isner #5 and Roberto Bautista Agut #6, meaning that we have five of the Top Fifteen. The remaining seeds are Kevin Anderson and Gilles Simon — meaning that we actually have an unseeded Top Twenty player; Murray could face Fabio Fognini in round two. There are plenty of other tough unseeded players, too — Ferrer, for instance, will face either Fernando Verdasco or Leonardo Mayer in the second round. Bautista Agut’s second round is against defending champion Mikhail Youzhny. Anderson starts against Philipp Kohlschreiber, then probably Martin Klizan. Simon opens against Alexandr Dolgopolov, then Jeremy Chardy. And Isner starts against Tommy Robredo, the #2 unseeded player. In all, six of the seeds risk facing a Top 25 player on their way to the quarterfinal. No one in Basel faces that. Basel got the big names, but Valencia has the depth!
The Rankings and the Race
Start with the Race, since that’s what is hot right now. Right now, the #8 guy, Milos Raonic, is at 3750 points. Players can add at most 1500 points — 500 this week, 1000 at Paris. So players must have a total of 2250 or more to have any shot at London, and that’s just thirteen guys: Djokovic, Federer, Nadal, Wawrinka (all qualified), Nishikori, Cilic (qualified by Grand Slam Wildcard; the ATP made it official on Saturday morning), Berdych, Raonic, Ferrer, Murray, Dimitrov, Tsonga, and Gulbis. But Tsonga isn’t playing; he’s out of contention. Gulbis is too far behind to have any real hope. Nishikori is just about guaranteed in practice. So it’s Berdych, Raonic, Ferrer, Murray, and Dimitrov going for two spots. The pressure is probably heaviest on Dimitrov — he’s about 500 points behind Berdych, so an early loss and good weeks by Berdych and Raonic could all but eliminate him.
As for the rankings, this is the week when Juan Martin del Potro will really sink fast. He was last year’s Basel champion, and that’s more than a third of his remaining points. He’ll fall out of the Top Fifty. Roger Federer was the Basel finalist, but that won’t matter; he is secure at #2. The only question is the size of the gap between him and Djokovic. The semifinalists were Edouard Roger-Vasselin (who could fall to around #90) and Vasek Pospisil (whose Top Fifty ranking is in great danger). Mikhail Youzhny was the surprise Valencia champion, over David Ferrer; Nicolas Almagro and Dmitry Tursunov were semifinalists. It would be no surprise to see Youzhny fall below #40, and Almagro can expect to lose his Top Fifty spot. Tursunov may fall to around #100.
At the top, don’t expect movement. Djokovic will stay #1, Federer #2, Nadal #3, Wawrinka #4. But David Ferrer’s #5 ranking is in danger. Indeed, every spot from #5 to #11 is in play as those guys who are gunning for London also gun for spots in the Top
THIS WEEK ON THE ATP WORLD TOUR:
Moscow (250/Indoor Hard). Defending Champion: Richard Gasquet
Stockholm (250/Indoor Hard). Defending Champion: Grigor Dimitrov
Vienna (250/Indoor Hard). Defending Champion: Tommy Haas
NEXT WEEK ON THE ATP WORLD TOUR:
Basel (500/Indoor Hard). Defending Champion: Juan Martin del Potro
Valencia (500/Indoor Hard). Defending Champion: Mikhail Youzhny
RANKINGS
Estimated ATP World Tour Rankings
As of October 18, 2014
Rank &
Prior…Player………..Points
1..(1) Djokovic……….11510
2..(2) Federer…………9080
3..(3) Nadal…………..8105
4..(4) Wawrinka………..5385
5..(5) Ferrer………….4585
6..(6) Nishikori……….4355
7..(7) Berdych…………4325
8..(8) Cilic…………..4005
9..(9) Raonic………….3930
10.(11) Murray………….3695
11.(10) Dimitrov………..3645
12.(12) Tsonga………….2660
13.(13) Gulbis………….2465
14.(16) Bautista Agut……2065
15.(14) Lopez…………..2060
16.(15) Isner…………..1970
17.(17) Anderson………..1875
18.(18) Simon…………..1810
19.(19) Fognini…………1790
20.(20) Monfils…………1735
21.(21) Robredo…………1715
22.(22) Gasquet…………1485
23.(23) Kohlschreiber……1460
24.(24) Dolgopolov………1455
25.(25) Mayer…………..1404
26.(26) Benneteau……….1375
27.(27) Youzhny…………1350
28.(28) Goffin………….1278
29.(29) Del Potro……….1265
30.(31) Rosol…………..1245
DRAWS
Moscow — Week of October 12, 2014
……………..QF…………….SF………….F
1 Raonic………Berankis(Q)
5 Bautista Agut..(5)Bautista Agut..Bautista Agut..Bautista
3 Gulbis………(3)Gulbis………Gulbis
8 Seppi……….(8)Seppi
7 Youzhny……..(7)Youzhny
4 Fognini……..Kukushkin………Kukushkin
6 Robredo……..(6)Robredo
2 Cilic……….(2)Cilic……….Cilic……….Cilic
STATUS OF SEEDS:
1 Raonic…………lost 2R (Berankis)
2 Cilic
3 Gulbis…………lost SF (Bautista Agut)
4 Fognini………..lost 2R (Kukushkin)
5 Bautista Agut
6 Robredo………..lost QF (Cilic)
7 Youzhny………..lost QF (Kukushkin)
8 Seppi………….lost QF (Gulbis)
Stockholm — Week of October 12, 2014
……………QF………….SF………..F
1 Berdych……(1)Berdych…..Berdych……Berdych
8 Sousa……..Copil(Q)
4 Dolgopolov…Mannarino
5 L Mayer……Bachinger(Q)…Bachinger
7 Verdasco…..(7)Verdasco
3 Anderson…..Tomic……….Tomic
6 Chardy…….Sock
2 Dimitrov…..(2)Dimitrov….Dimitrov…..Dimitrov
STATUS OF SEEDS:
1 Berdych
2 Dimitrov
3 Anderson…….lost 2R (Tomic)
4 Dolgopolov…..lost 2R (Mannarino)
5 L Mayer……..lost 2R (Bachinger)
6 Chardy………lost 2R (Sock)
7 Verdasco…….lost QF (Tomic)
8 Sousa……….lost 1R (Copil)
Vienna — Week of October 12, 2014
………………QF……………..SF…………F
1 Ferrer (WC)…..(1)Ferrer(WC)……Ferrer……..Ferrer
6 Karlovic……..(6)Karlovic
4 Kohlschreiber…(4)Kohlschreiber…Kohlschreiber
8 Thiem………..Becker
5 Rosol………..Troicki(Q)………Troicki
3 Lopez………..Bellucci
7 Garcia-Lopez….Struff
2 Murray (WC)…..(2)Murray(WC)……Murray……..Murray
STATUS OF SEEDS:
1 Ferrer (WC)
2 Murray (WC)
3 Lopez………..lost 2R (Bellucci)
4 Kohlschreiber…lost SF (Ferrer)
5 Rosol………..lost 2R (Troicki)
6 Karlovic……..lost QF (Ferrer)
7 Garcia-Lopez….lost 1R (Struff)
8 Thiem………..lost 1R (Haase)
Basel — Week of October 19, 2014
1 Federer
Muller
Janowicz
Istomin
Nieminen
Pospisil
A Zverev (WC)
5 Dimitrov
3 Wawrinka
Kukushkin
Qualifier
Becker
Qualifier
Delbonis
Rosol
8 Karlovic
7 Goffin
Thiem
Dodig
Chiudinelli (WC)
Berlocq
Young
Johnson
4 Raonic
6 Gulbis
Coric (WC)
Golubev
Gabashvili
Qualifier
Roger-Vasselin
Qualifier
2 Nadal
Valencia — Week of October 19, 2014
1 Ferrer
Seppi
Verdasco
L Mayer
Qualifier
Youzhny
Giraldo
6 Bautista Agut
3 Murray (WC)
Melzer
Qualifier
Fognini
Kozlov (WC)
Klizan
Kohlschreiber
7 Anderson
8 Simon
Dolgopolov
Chardy
Qualifier
Granollers
Carreno Busta (WC)
Qualifier
4 Lopez
5 Isner
Robredo
Lu
Garcia-Lopez
Lajovic
Sousa
Andujar
2 Berdych (WC)
SATURDAY
Moscow
Singles – Semifinal
(2) M Cilic def. M Kukushkin 4-6 6-3 6-2
(5) R Bautista Agut def. (3) E Gulbis 6-4 6-4
Stockholm
Singles – Semifinal
(1) T Berdych def. (Q) M Bachinger 7-6(9-7) 6-4
(2) G Dimitrov def. B Tomic 6-3 7-5
Doubles – Semifinal
(3) Butorac/Klaasen def. Murray/Peers 6-7(7-9) 6-3 10-6
Huey/Sock def. (WC) Brown/Siljestrom 6-1 6-4
Vienna
Singles – Semifinal
(1) (WC) D Ferrer def. (4) P Kohlschreiber 6-3 2-6 7-6(7-3)
(2) (WC) A Murray def. (Q) V Troicki 6-4 6-3
Doubles – Semifinal
(WC) Melzer/Petzschner def. (4) S Gonzalez/Rosol 6-2 7-5
***
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Topics: Atp, Basel, Moscow, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Stan Wawrinka, Stockholm, Tennis, Tennis Results, Valencia, Vienna