LADIES TENNIS LOOK TO BEIJING

Written by: Staff on 28th September 2014

LADIES TENNIS LOOK TO BEIJING

epa04371460 Maria Sharapova of Russia reacts as she plays Alexandra Dulgheru of Romania during the third day of the 2014 US Open Tennis Championship at the USTA National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York, USA, 27 August 2014. The US Open runs through 08 September, a 15-day schedule. EPA/PETER FOLEY |

PRO WOMEN Tidbits :

Beijing Here We Come

Women’s Look Forward: PEEKING @ Beijing

The race is run.

We exaggerate, slightly, but in all likelihood, this will be the week the WTA Race ends. Beijing is worth 1000 points, and it’s mandatory, meaning that it’s worth about twice as much to the players as every other event. And with the top nine players, minus Li Na, qualifying for Singapore, and a big, big gap between #9 and #10, chances are very good that things will be over after this. In singles, anyway; the doubles may well still be live.

At least Beijing is a very strong event, one that deserves all those points. It’s so tough that Belinda Bencic and Varvara Lepchenko, who are now in the Top Forty, are in qualifying. The draw has eighteen of the Top Twenty; the only players missing are Li Na, who is retired, and Dominika Cibulkova, who was unable to finish at the Pan Pacific and is presumably still hurting (and is out of the Race to Singapore as a result). Serena Williams is of course the #1 seed — but she doesn’t have a bye, because this is a 60-draw, and only the four players to make the Pan Pacific semifinal get byes. The good news is, she doesn’t have to face Alize Cornet in the first three rounds. The bad news is, Cornet is in her quarter.

Petra Kvitova of the Czech Republic hits a return to Aleksandra Krunic of Serbia during the sixth day of the 2014 US Open Tennis Championship at the USTA National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York, USA, 30 August 2014. The US Open runs through 08 September, a 15-day schedule. EPA/JOHN G. MABANGLO

Simona Halep is again #2, and again faces threats to that ranking, from #3 Petra Kvitova (who is in Serena’s half and has the first bye) and #4 Maria Sharapova (in Halep’s half, with no bye). Agnieszka Radwanska, whose ranking has been slipping, is #5 and in Kvitova’s quarter; Caroline Wozniacki, who has the second bye, is #6 and in Serena’s quarter. #7 Angelique Kerber just saw her ranking fall to #10, and is desperate to keep her Singapore hopes alive, but for this week at least she is the #7 seed and is in Sharapova’s quarter. Eugenie Bouchard has the third bye; she is seeded #8 and in Halep’s quarter — and she’s clearly back in form, so that isn’t good news for Halep.

Ana Ivanovic of Serbia returns the ball to Victoria Azarenka of Belarus during their second round match of the Toray Pan Pacific Open tennis tournament in Tokyo, Japan, 17 September 2014. Ivanovic won 6-3 and 6-4. EPA/FRANCK ROBICHON

Ana Ivanovic is #9 and in Bouchard’s eighth; if Ivanovic wants clinch her Singapore place early, she really needs to win that meeting. Jelena Jankovic, who is all but out of the contest for Singapore and really needs to do well here to have any chance at all, is in Wozniacki’s part of the draw. Sara Errani, who is also having her last stand, is #11 and in Kerber’s quarter; that means that one of them is guaranteed to be eliminated from the Race when they meet.

Ekaterina Makarova, the #12 seed, went down early at the Pan Pacific, so she’s almost out of the contest for Singapore. She is in Radwanska’s part of the draw. Lucie Safarova, the #13 seed, is #18 in the Race, so she is out of the contest, too. Ditto, for practical purposes, #14 Flavia Pennetta, who is in Sharapova’s section; #15 Andrea Petkovic, who is in Halep’s part of the draw; and #16 Venus Williams, drawn to face Kvitova.

This event feels slightly weaker than Wuhan — maybe the mid-level players didn’t want to face the air in Beijing? — but still, few of the seeds can expect an easy time. Serena lucked out, and Safarova’s draw isn’t too bad (she opens against Camila Giorgi, whose upset talents are less likely to come out on this surface), but Jankovic will have to open against Alize Cornet. Wozniacki’s opener might be against Samantha Stosur. Kvitova is sure to open against a Chinese player, and that player is likely to be Peng Shuai, China’s #1, and one of only two Chinese players with direct entry (Zhang Shuai is the other. It’s interesting that China’s other big name, Zheng Jie, isn’t in the singles at all — doubles only.) Zhang, who is finally back in action, is one of the players who could face Venus in round two; the other is Caroline Garcia, who did tremendous damage at Wuhan. Makarova opens against Garbine Muguruza; Karolina Pliskova might follow. Radwanska’s opener is against CoCo Vandeweghe, who is playing very well. Kerber starts against Casey Dellacqua. Errani might face Svetlana Kuznetsova in round two. Pennetta’s second round is against Carla Suarez Navarro, the top unseeded player. Sharapova will open against upset artist Kaia Kanepi, then Wuhan semifinalist Elina Svitolina. Bouchard could face Sabin Lisicki in the second round. Petkovic might take on Madison Keys. And Halep’s path runs through Barbora Zahlavova Strycova and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

The Rankings

Beijing has a special significance each year, because it’s the last required event. Players can, if they wish, end their seasons after this week. Sure, eight of them will qualify for Singapore, and a few others may make last-ditch attempts to qualify (although it is very possible that the Race will be done after Beijing), but this is the event that will settle the year-end rankings for a lot of players.

Not that it will matter at the top. Serena Williams is the defending champion, but she is safe at #1. It’s below that that things could move. Jelena Jankovic was last year’s finalist, with Petra Kvitova and Agnieszka Radwanska the semifinalists. Serena and Kvitova and Radwanska will all make Singapore; Jankovic, for practical purposes, is out of it. The quarterfinalists were Li Na (retired, and obviously not back), Caroline Wozniacki (close to qualifying for Singapore), Angelique Kerber (on the edges of the Race), and Lucie Safarova (pretty well out of it). Of the other Top Ten players, Simona Halep lost her opener, Maria Sharapova did not play, Ana Ivanovic lost second round, and Eugenie Bouchard lost second round as a qualifier.

That means that Halep faces a slight threat to her #2 ranking, but not much of one. Sharapova might be able to pass her with a final if Halep loses early enough. Kvitova also has a shot; how big a shot depends on the outcome of Wuhan.

#3 is in play — how much in play depends strongly on the Wuhan final. If Kvitova wins that (meaning that she will be #3 entering Beijing), then she will be a little behind Sharapova in safe points, but in striking distance. If Kvitova loses in Wuhan, then Sharapova has a big lead and Kvitova will need at least a final.

Agnieszka Radwanska might lose her #6 ranking to Eugenie Bouchard on Saturday, and even if she keeps it, she is in danger of losing it to Bouchard in Tokyo. Caroline Wozniacki and Ana Ivanovic also have chances.

Angelique Kerber has the last Top Ten spot, and she looks pretty safe. Jelena Jankovic, #11 coming in, is a couple of spots lower in safe points. Sara Errani, #11 in safe points, is almost 600 points behind Kerber. So she would need at least a final to hit the Top Ten.

In the Race, Serena, Sharapova, Halep, Radwanska, Kvitova, and Bouchard are in. Wozniacki and Ivanovic currently have the last two spots (leaving aside Li Na). With Cibulkova not playing, the only real candidate to catch them is Kerber, and she is far behind. We’ll be updating that as the week proceeds.

Rankings

Estimated WTA Rankings As of September 26, 2014

Rank &

Prior

Rank …Name …………. Points

1..(1) SWILLIAMS ……… 9430

2..(2) HALEP …………. 6036

3..(4) SHARAPOVA ……… 5680

4..(3) KVITOVA ……….. 5611*

5..(5) Li ……………..5270

6..(6) ARADWANSKA ………5035

7..(9) BOUCHARD ………..4793*