A PEEK @ THE LADIES US OPEN TENNIS DRAW , LI NA IS MISSING BUT SERENA & SHARAPOVA READY TO MAKE SOME NOISE

Women’s Look Forward: U. S. Open

 

Li Na will be missing this year’s U. S. Open. And she took a lot of speculation with her.

These days, almost every Slam discussion starts with the question, “Can anyone beat Serena Williams?” That question is particularly relevant at the U. S. Open, which is Serena’s favorite. In the absence of Li, there really aren’t a lot of obvious alternatives. Simona Halep is clearly the second-best player in the world right now, but she has yet to win a Slam. Petra Kvitova isn’t all that fond of hardcourts. Maria Sharapova’s serve is too likely to go away, and on a surface that favors the returner as much as the courts here, that tends to be devastating. Victoria Azarenka remains out of form. Venus Williams is doing better, but probably not enough better to win Slams. Samantha Stosur is a past champion, but she is seeded a mere #24, and if they seeded based on mental toughness, she’s be… oh, #600 or so….

At least everyone is here, except for Li. The 32 seeds consist of the top 33 players in the world, minus Li. That perhaps isn’t entirely good — it’s pretty absurd to be seeding Roberta Vinci, based on performance this year, and not seeding Elina Svitolina. But Svitolina didn’t schedule quite right, and it means that she’ll be stuck as the #1 unseeded player.

Serena is of course #1. Halep is #2. With Li out, Kvitova is #3. Agnieszka Radwanska has the #4 seed, and she has been in good form lately — and, for once, she didn’t over-play in the warmups. If ever she is to win here, this may well be the year. Maria Sharapova is #5, but she hasn’t been doing too well lately. Angelique Kerber has the #6 spot, but will probably be the lowest of the top eight seeds in terms of betting. Eugenie Bouchard is #7 but has been struggling since Wimbledon. Which leave #8 Ana Ivanovic, who has been having a solid summer. Based on the way things have been going lately, we might well list her as the #4 or so favorite, behind Serena (of course) and perhaps Halep and Sharapova.

It will tell you how much can happen in a year that eleven of last year’s seeds are not seeded this year: Rybarikova, Hampton (not playing), Flipkens, Kanepi, Cirstea, Robson (not playing), Koukalova, Vesnina, Kirilenko, Barthel, and Petrova (not playing).

On the whole, Serena received a good draw for her title defense. She could face Francesca Schiavone in the second round, but Schiavone is hardly a hardcourt threat these days. The first seed she would face is #32 Zhang Shuai. Then #15 Carla Saurez Navarro or #24 Samantha Stosur — if either of them make it there; Stosur opens against Lauren Davis, followed by Kaia Kanepi, while Suarez Navarro has to open against Ajla Tomljanovic, followed by Donna Vekic or Coco Vandeweghe.

In the quarterfinal, Serena is drawn against #8 Ana Ivanovic. Ivanovic’s quarter looks relatively easy in terms of seeds — the other seeds are #11 Flavia Pennetta, #23 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, and #29 Casey Dellacqua — but Ivanovic herself can’t be too thrilled with a draw that starts with Alison Riske, then perhaps Karolina Pliskova.

In the semifinal, Serena is supposed to face #3 Petra Kvitova. Kvitova’s draw is perhaps suitable for her: It’s full of skilled but extremely inconsistent players. Kvitova opens against Kristina Mladenovic, who certainly fit that description, then maybe Klara Koukalova. Then come #27 Madison Keys, and then it gets really interesting, because she would face either #16 Victoria Azarenka or #20 Svetlana Kuznetsova — both, of course, former Slam winners, but not in Slam-winning form at present. Elena Vesnina and Christina McHale are also in that part of the draw.

Then, if the seeds hold, Kvitova would face Eugenie Bouchard. But Bouchard will face Heather Watson or Sorana Cirstea in round two. Then would come #30 Barbora Zahlavova Strycova. In the fourth round, it’s supposed to be #17 Ekaterina Makarova (who is in good form) or #12 Dominika Cibulkova (who isn’t). Elina Svitolina, the top unseeded player and in very good form, is also in that part of the draw; she could face Makarova in round two.

The bottom half features some fascinating matches — Serbia’s #2 Jelena Jankovic opens against #3 Bojana Jovanovski, and Maria Sharapova has to face her good friend Maria Kirilenko — but it’s hard to predict, with #2 Halep and #5 Sharapova drawn in the same quarter. Halep is fortunate in her early rounds, but could face #25 Garbine Muguruza after that. In the fourth round, she’s supposed to face Sara Errani, but Errani is in poor form and has to face first Kirsten Flipkens and then Camila Giorgi; it seems much more likely that Halep would face #19 Venus Williams in the Round of Sixteen. Then would come Sharapova or #10 Caroline Wozniacki or #16 Andrea Petkovic or #26 Sabine Lisicki. There aren’t a lot of strong unseeded threats in that part of the draw, although Wozniacki has to open against Magdalena Rybarikova, who came to life at New Haven.

The next-highest seed in Radwanska’s quarter is #6 Angelique Kerber, followed by #9 Jelena Jankovic and #14 Lucie Safarova. Others are #31 Kurumi Nara, #21 Sloane Stephens, #22 Alize Cornet, and #28 Roberta Vinci, who on current form really shouldn’t be seeded. Nor are there a lot of unseeded threats; Jankovic, as mentioned, opens against Jovanovski, and Cornet’s second round is against Daniela Hantuchova, but otherwise, it’s a fairly soft draw. Other than Serena, Radwanska is probably the best bet of the top four to hold her seeding.

The Rankings

This is the week when, finally, we might see a change at the top of the rankings. Serena Williams was last year’s U. S. Open champion, and Simona Halep, then ranked #19, lost in the fourth round, so there is room for a swing of more than 3500 points between them.

Victoria Azarenka was the finalist, so she is likely to really suffer (again) — she is below the Top Thirty in safe points! Li Na was a semifinalist; she is down to #6 in safe points, though there is a big enough gap between #6 and #7 that there is a fair chance she will not fall below that. Certainly she should be no worse than #7. The other semifinalist was Flavia Pennetta; she is down to #18 in safe points. Quarterfinalists were Carla Suarez Navarro (who, amazingly, is still #16 in safe points despite that), Ekaterina Makarova (who falls only from #18 to #19 in safe points!), Roberta Vinci (around #40 in safe points), and Daniela Hantuchova (whose Top Fifty ranking may be in danger). Of the rest of the Top Ten, Agnieszka Radwanska, Angelique Kerber, Ana Ivanovic, and Jelena Jankovic all lost in the fourth round, Petra Kvitova in the third, Eugenie Bouchard in the second, and Maria Sharapova did not play.

It all boils down to a slight but real chance that Serena could lose the #1 ranking to Halep. Serena leads by 1400 points, meaning that Halep needs a title to move up, and she needs Serena to lose in the quarterfinal or earlier — a pretty unlikely event, but certainly not an impossible one.

Sharapova, Kvitova, and Radwanska are all close to tied for #3 to #5; Kvitova leads, but not by much (her New Haven result will affect her lead, of course), and Sharapova and Radwanska are only fifteen points apart. They might even be able to reach #2; Kvitova might be able to do it with as little as a quarterfinal if she can win New Haven.

Although we may see a new Top Ten player, it is by no means a sure thing. #10 Jelena Jankovic has a lead of more than 400 points on #11 Caroline Wozniacki and #12-in-safe-points Dominika Cibulkova, and everyone else is at least 600 points back. So Wozniacki and Cibulkova would need at least a quarterfinal to move up (and that’s if Jankovic loses her opener); anyone else would need a semifinal or better.

 

************ STATS AND FACTS ************

 

Rankings

Estimated WTA Rankings As of August 21, 2014

 

Rank &

Prior

Rank …Name …………. Points

1..(1) SWilliams ……… 9430

2..(2) HALEP …………. 6310

3..(3) Li ……………..6170

4..(4) KVITOVA ……….. 5791*

5..(5) ARadwanska ………5590

6..(6) Sharapova ……… 5335

7..(7) Kerber ………….4550

8..(8) BOUCHARD ………..4405

9..(9) Ivanovic ………..4065

10.(10) Jankovic ………..3695

11.(11) WOZNIACKI ……… 3165

12.(12) PENNETTA ………..3121

13.(13) CIBULKOVA ……… 3002

14.(14) ERRANI ………….2885

15.(15) Safarova ………..2825

16.(16) Suarez Navarro …..2790

17.(17) Azarenka ………..2783

18.(18) MAKAROVA ………..2565

19.(19) PETKOVIC ………..2400

20.(20) VWilliams ……… 2340

21.(25) STOSUR ………….2045

22.(21) Kuznetsova ………2010

23.(23) Cornet ………….1930

24.(22) Stephens ………..1900

25.(24) Pavlyuchenkova …..1865

26.(26) MUGURUZA ………..1793

27.(28) Keys ……………1605

28.(27) Lisicki ……….. 1576

29.(31) ZAHLAVOVA STRYCOVA .1501

30.(29) VINCI …………. 1492

Draws

New Haven — Week of August 18, 2014

 

……………….QF………………..SF……….F

1 Halep…………Rybarikova…………Rybarikova..Rybarikova

6 Pennetta………Riske

4 Wozniacki……..Giorgi…………….Giorgi

7 Errani………..Muguruza

 

5 Cibulkova (WC)…Flipkens(WC)

3 Bouchard………Stosur…………….Stosur

[Garcia(LL)]…….Zahlavova Strycova

2 Kvitova……….(2)Kvitova…………Kvitova…..Kvitova

 

STATUS OF SEEDS:

1 Halep…………lost 2R (Rybarikova)

2 Kvitova

3 Bouchard………lost 2R (Stosur)

4 Wozniacki……..lost 2R (Giorgi)

5 Cibulkova (WC)…lost 1R (Petkovic)

6 Pennetta………lost 2R (Riske)

7 Errani………..lost 1R (Muguruza)

8 Suarez Navarro…WITHDREW (replaced by Garcia)

U. S. Open — Week of August 24, 2014

 

1 S. Williams

Townsend (WC)

Schiavone

King

Lepchenko

Van Uytvanck

Barthel

32 Zhang

 

24 Stosur

Davis

Parmentier

Kanepi

Vandeweghe

Vekic

Tomljanovic

15 Suarez Navarro

 

11 Pennetta

Goerges

Rogers

Qualifier

Gibbs (WC)

Garcia

Pereira

23 Pavlyuchenkova

 

29 Dellacqua

Mayr-Achleitner

Qualifier

Qualifier

Ka. Pliskova

Meusburger

Riske

8 Ivanovic

 

3 Kvitova

Mladenovic

Koukalova

Cetkovska

Qualifier

Piter

Gajdosova (WC)

27 Keys

 

20 Kuznetsova

Erakovic

Vesnina

Qualifier

Scheepers

McHale

Doi

16 Azarenka

 

12 Cibulkova

Bellis (WC)

Diyas

Qualifier

Svitolina

Hercog

Min (WC)

17 Makarova

 

30 Zahlavova Strycova

Qualifier

Shvedova

Niculescu

Cirstea

Watson

Govortsova

7 Bouchard

 

6 Kerber

Qualifier

Qualifier

Qualifier

Bencic

Wickmayer

Wozniak

31 Nara

 

21 Stephens

Beck

Razzano

Larsson

Knapp

Pironkova

Jovanovski

9 Jankovic

 

14 Safarova

Babos

Qualifier

Voegele

Oprandi

Hantuchova

Hesse (WC)

22 Cornet

 

28 Vinci

Ormaechea

Begu

Soler-Espinosa

Peng

Zheng

Fichman

4 A Radwanska

 

5 Sharapova

Kirilenko

Kr Pliskova

Dulgheru

Glushko

Brengle (WC)

Qualifier

26 Lisicki

 

18 Petkovic

Qualifier

Smitkova

Puig

Schmiedlova

Qualifier

Rybarikova

10 Wozniacki

 

13 Errani

Flipkens

Qualifier

Giorgi

Bertens

Bacsinszky

Date-Krumm

19 V Williams

 

25 Muguruza

Qualifier

Konta

Peer

Cepelova

Torro-Flor

Collins (WC)

2 Halep

******** SCORES ********

 

FRIDAY

New Haven

Singles – Semifinal

(2) Petra Kvitova def. Samantha Stosur 6-3 6-1

Magdalena Rybarikova def. Camila Giorgi 6-2 6-4

Doubles – Semifinal

Klepac/Soler-Espinosa def. Jurak/Moulton-Levy 7-6(7-3) 4-6 10-8

Topics: Agnieszka Radwanska, Angelique Kerber, Genie Bouchard, Li Na, Petra Kvitova, Samantha Stosur, Serena, Sharapova, Simona Halep, tennis draws, US Open 2014, Venus Williams, Wta

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