SERENA WILLIAMS FRESH FOR MIAMI

Women’s Look Forward: Miami

 

If Serena Williams is going to turn her slightly disappointing 2014 around, now would be a perfect time to start. After Miami, the Tour turns to surfaces where she is ever so slightly less comfortable, plus she is playing right in her own back yard, and she’s defending champion, so she has strong reason to want to do well.

And she won’t have to worry about Victoria Azarenka, her chief rival in recent years; Azarenka’s foot is hurting too much for her to play. But Azarenka is the only Top Twenty player missing; the only other Top Thirty player missing is Maria Kirilenko. Jamie Hampton is also out; those three are the only potential seeds to be absent. Indeed, they are the only Top Fifty players missing; the next absentee is Laura Robson.

The absence of those injured players is perhaps made up for by all the long-injured players trying to get things back together here. And some of them will surely do so, simply because of the way the draw turned out. Nadia Petrova and Urszula Radwanska will open against each other; so will Iveta Benesova Melzer and Alisa Kleybanova. Obviously somebody will be earning second round points.

Even though the draw uses the pre-Indian Wells rankings, which are only two weeks old, it feels very out-of-date somehow. The rankings changed so substantially that we have the “wrong” #4 seed! Serena Williams is of course #1, and Li Na #2; Agnieszka Radwanska, despite hurting herself at Indian Wells, will try to play as the #3 seed. But Maria Sharapova, even though her ranking is down to #7, is seeded #4, with Angelique Kerber #5, Simona Halep #6, Jelena Jankovic #7, and Petra Kvitova #8. If the current ranking were used, Halep would be #4, Jankovic #5, Sharapova #6, Kvitova #7, and Kerber #8.

The draw pits Kerber against Serena in the quarterfinal, with the winner facing the winner of Sharapova versus Kvitova; the other quarterfinals pit Halep against Radwanska (a rematch of their Indian Wells semifinal) and Jankovic against Li.

In the Round of Sixteen, Serena would face #16 Samantha Stosur, Kerber would take on struggling #9 Sara Errani, Sharapova confronts #14 Sabine Lisicki, Kvitova is drawn against #12 Ana Ivanovic, Halep could face #10 Dominika Cibulkova, Radwanska takes on #13 Roberta Vinci, Jankovic would face #11 Caroline Wozniacki, whom she beat in the same round at Indian Wells (and who, if the current rankings were used, would not be seeded for the Round of Sixteen; she would be the #17 seed), and Li takes on #15 Carla Suarez Navarro.

Assuming they all get there, of course. Serena probably won’t be troubled in the third round by #27 Klara Zakopalova, but Stosur has to take on #21 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, which isn’t an open-and-shut case. The first seed Errani would face is #23 Ekaterina Makarova, which on this surface feels like an upset based on current form. Kerber’s first seeded opponent is #25 Sorana Cirstea. Sharapova takes on #26 Lucie Safarova, and Lisicki will face #19 Kirsten Flipkens, who had one of the best results of her career here last year. Ivanovic’s first seeded opponent is #20 Flavia Pennetta, who is now actually ranked ahead of Ivanovic! Kvitova would face #28 Svetlana Kuznetsova, which could go either way depending on which one actually shows up — if either one does. Halep has the misfortune of having drawn #29 Venus Williams; Cibulkova will be trying to win a contest of scramblers with #22 Alize Cornet. Vinci looks like she could be in trouble, since she faces #18 Eugenie Bouchard, who is in far better form this year. Radwanska’s first seeded opponent would be #32 Elena Vesnina; Jankovic would face #30 Garbine Muguruza. Wozniacki is confronted with #17 Sloane Stephens, which sounds like it could mean trouble. Suarez Navarro also faces a tough challenge in #24 Kaia Kanepi; Li’s first seeded opponent will be #31 Daniela Hantuchova.

Since every Top Thirty player is seeded, there will be quite a few seeds who breeze in their opening matches. But Serena will have to start against Yaroslava Shvedova or Francesca Schiavone, who might trouble her on a very good day. Zakopalova may start against Aleksandra Wozniak, who did major damage at Indian Wells. Sharapova’s first match is against either Annika Beck or Kurumi Nara, both having good years. Ivanovic’s first opponent will be Zhang Shuai or suddenly-hot Lauren Davis. Halep might open against Casey Dellacqua, another player on a very hot streak. Cornet might face Andrea Petkovic, who just missed seeding. Vinci could face Monica Niculescu or Barbora Zahlavova Strycova, tough veterans both. Bouchard will face either Bethanie Mattek-Sands, who likes playing here a lot, or promising Elina Svitolina. Jankovic might face Yanina Wickmayer (who, however, is in awful form). Wozniacki will likely open against Magdalena Rybarikova, who didn’t miss seeding by much. And Hantuchova is likely to start against Madison Keys, another near-seed.

The Rankings

It probably doesn’t surprise anyone that Serena Williams is the defending Miami champion. Some of the others with big points on the line may be more surprising. Maria Sharapova was last year’s finalist — she was on a very hot run last spring. Agnieszka Radwanska and Jelena Jankovic made the semifinal. Li Na, Kirsten Flipkens, Sara Errani, and Roberta Vinci were quarterfinalists.

Of the other top players, Victoria Azarenka was out last year also; Simona Halep (who was unseeded) lost in the third round to Errani; Petra Kvitova lost in the third round to Flipkens; and Angelique Kerber lost in the third round to Sorana Cirstea.

It won’t matter at the top. Serena Williams will stay #1 no matter what happens. And Li Na will stay #2; Agnieszka Radwanska’s Indian Wells loss will see to that. Radwanska is safe at #3; Azarenka’s inability to play made that certain.

We’d guess that Azarenka will stay #4, but it’s not certain. Simona Halep could, just possibly, take the #4 spot. But she would need a title to do it. Halep is the only player with any chance at her.

Odds are that Halep will stay Top Five; Jankovic and Sharapova have too much to defend to threaten her. Indeed, it’s a reasonable question whether Sharapova can stay in the Top Ten. She s a mere #10 in safe points, not much ahead of #11 Dominika Cibulkova. Flavia Pennetta also has a decent shot at the Top Ten, and Ana Ivanovic might have a chance. If any of them make it, they will replace either Sharapova or Errani or both.

Interestingly, there are no obvious candidates to fall out of the Top Fifteen; the same players are Top Fifteen in safe points as are currently ranked in the Top Fifteen. Ditto with the Top Twenty. Klara Zakopalova is the player perhaps most likely to lose her Top Thirty spot; Garbine Muguruza and Andrea Petkovic face a real risk of falling out of the Top Forty. Amazingly, there are no obvious candidates to lose their Top Fifty spots; we have the same Top Fifty in safe points and in the rankings. We can’t remember the last time that was true at a mandatory event.

Peng and Hsieh are sure to keep the #1 and #2 doubles spots; the first contest is for #3. Katarina Srebotnik, last year’s champion, is in grave danger of losing her Top Five spot, and Nadia Petrova, who played with her, is at risk of falling below the Top Fifteen. The players who are really in trouble, though, are last year’s finalists Lisa Raymond and Laura Robson. Raymond, #31, has more than a quarter of her points on the line; Robson, #82, will lose more than 70% of her points and will not have the ranking to get into much of anything….

 

Rankings

Estimated WTA Rankings As of March 17, 2014

 

Rank &

Prior

Rank …Name …………. Points

1..(1) SWILLIAMS ……… 11670*

2..(2) LI ……………..6945*

3..(3) ARADWANSKA ………5775*

4..(4) Azarenka ………..5441

5..(5) HALEP …………. 4705*

6..(8) KVITOVA ……….. 4165*

7..(6) JANKOVIC ………..4150*

8..(9) KERBER ………….3980*

9.(10) ERRANI ………….3590*

10..(7) SHARAPOVA ……… 3581*

11.(11) CIBULKOVA ……… 3340*

12.(12) PENNETTA ………..3215*

13.(13) IVANOVIC ………..3010*

14.(14) VINCI …………. 2685*

15.(15) LISICKI ……….. 2665*

16.(17) SUAREZ NAVARRO …..2550*

17.(18) WOZNIACKI ……… 2535*

18.(16) STEPHENS ………..2495*

19.(19) BOUCHARD ………..2445*

20.(20) STOSUR ………….2430*

21.(21) PAVLYUCHENKOVA …..2245*

22.(24) MAKAROVA ………..2130*

23.(22) CORNET ………….2100*

24.(25) KANEPI ………….2055*

25.(23) FLIPKENS ………..1975*

26.(27) SAFAROVA ………..1885*

27.(26) CIRSTEA ……….. 1780*

28.(29) Kirilenko ……… 1516

29.(30) KUZNETSOVA ………1513*

30.(31) VWILLIAMS ……… 1507*

Draws

Miami — week of March 17, 2014

1 S Williams

–bye

Shvedova

Schiavone

Garcia

Wozniak (WC)

–bye

27 Zakopalova

 

21 Pavlyuchenkova

–bye

Qualifier

Erakovic

Qualifier

Duval (WC)

–bye

16 Stosur

 

9 Errani

–bye

Knapp

Qualifier

Barthel

Peterson (WC)

–bye

23 Makarova

 

25 Cirstea

–bye

Voskoboeva

Pironkova

Peng

Ka. Pliskova

–bye

5 Kerber

 

4 Sharapova

–bye

Beck

Nara

Qualifier

King

–bye

26 Safarova

 

19 Flipkens

–bye

Watson (WC)

Qualifier

Petrova (WC)

U Radwanska

–bye

14 Lisicki

 

12 Ivanovic

–bye

Zhang

Davis

Qualifier

Qualifier

–bye

20 Pennetta

 

28 Kuznetsova

–bye

Qualifier

Qualifier

Ormaechea

Qualifier

–bye

8 Kvitova

 

6 Halep

–bye

Dellacqua (WC)

Voegele

de Vroome (WC)

Schmiedlova

–bye

29 V Williams

 

22 Cornet

–bye

Torro-Flor

Petkovic

Meusburger

Dominguez Lino

–bye

10 Cibulkova

 

13 Vinci

–bye

Niculescu

Zahlavova Strycova

Mattek-Sands

Svitolina

–bye

18 Bouchard

 

32 Vesnina

–bye

Riske

Qualifier

Jovanovski

Oprandi

–bye

3 A Radwanska

 

7 Jankovic

–bye

Wickmayer

Lepchenko

Tomljanovic

Mladenovic

–bye

30 Muguruza

 

17 Stephens

–bye

Qualifier

Cadantu

Puig

Rybarikova

–bye

11 Wozniacki

 

15 Suarez Navarro

–bye

Soler-Espinosa

Scheepers

McHale

Zheng

–bye

24 Kanepi

 

31 Hantuchova

–bye

Kontaveit (WC)

Keys

Melzer

Kleybanova

–bye

2 Li

Topics: 10sballs, Maria Sharapova, Miami, Serena Williams, Sony Open, Sports, Tennis, Tennis News, Wta

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