“10s Whenever” Newsletter Vol. 115

Written by: Tennischiro on 23rd January 2014

"10s Whenever" Newsletter Vol. 115

epa04038017 Stanislas Wawrinka of Switzerland celebrates after winning his match against Tomas Berdych of the Czech Republic during his match against in the semifinals of the Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne, Australia, 23 January 2014. EPA/MARK DADSWELL |

Wawrinka Takes Out Berdych 6-3,6-7,7-6,7-6 In Australian Open

by Dr. Don Brosseau

Going late into the third set, I thought Wawrinka was making a mistake in not engaging in more rallies involving movement like he and Djokovic demonstrated in the quarters. I felt that while Berdych is definitely an exquisite striker of the ball, he did not move as well as Wawrinka and if Stan kept the premium on movement, he could swing the scales slightly in his favor in baseline exchanges. Perhaps part of the thinking was that he was at a slight disadvantage if endurance became a significant issue in the match because of the strenuous nature of his quarterfinal match with Djokovic. But Berdych was getting more and more comfortable and winning his service game more and more routinely.

Given all that, it really seemed in the second set tie-breaker that the real culprit for Stan would be mental fatigue. He would not be physically exhausted at this point, but he could simply be mentally exhausted and unable to get up for the big moments when they presented themselves as they invariably do in matches like this. Then, at 4-4 in the third, Wawrinka went down 0-30, but came up with a couple of big shots and great serves to hold and seemed to give his adrenal glands the necessary “squeeze” to fire him through to the end of the set and into the tie-breaker.

Commentator Wilander noted that Berdych had seemingly stayed away from Wawrinka’s backhand the first set and a half and Stan was hurting Tomas with his forehand; but then it seemed as if Berdych was actually a tactical genius as he started to go after Wawrinka’s backhand in the late stages of the 2nd and 3rd sets at key times. Berdych seemed to be swinging control of the match in his favor.

However, a five set match is a very different animal. The amazing experience Wawrinka has gained in the three marathon 5-set matches he has played in the last year against Djokovic may have been severely undervalued. Stan appeared to be somewhat mentally frayed in the latter stages of the third set, especially at 0-30 in that 4-4 game. But once he got that surge of adrenalin and held in that ninth game, his whole demeanor changed. When the time came to provide some of his best stuff, he appeared to be ready and able to perform as necessary. It turned out Stan’s approach to surviving the long test of a three-out-of-five-set match against an elite opponent on the big stage was just right.

Wawrinka got the early mini-break in the third set tie-breaker, but Berdych played a brilliant point to get it back to 2-3. I could swear I saw the surge of adrenalin through Berdych’s body at this point just before he stepped up to serve; he almost visibly shook just before double-faulting to go down 2-4. Stan was firing on all cylinders at this point and took the tie-breaker when Tomas double-faulted again at 3-6.

Wawrinka kept the pressure on in the first game of the second set as he made Berdych serve for 12 minutes, but the big Czech survived two break points, the only ones of the fourth set for either player. Stan proved to have the necessary reserves to come back from 0-30 in the 4-4 and 5-5 games with big serving just when he needed it. After those two close calls, he got off to a crisp start in the tie-breaker. His backhand passing shot forced an error volley from Berdych on the first point and then on the second point he continued to press the issue approaching the net after a second serve and forcing a backhand error from Tomas. Berdych missed a backhand return at 2-0 and suddenly the higher seed was in a big hole. Berdych made a fine forehand to force an error, but he gave up another key double fault at 1-3 to go down two mini-breaks. Wawrinka played just a little bit tentatively, understandably as he was just 3 points from his first Grand Slam final, and Berdych played a good point to draw a forced backhand error from the Swiss. Wawrinka answered with an ace to make it 2-5. Two points away! Berdych again failed to make his first serve, but played a good forehand to draw a forced backhand error from Wawrinka. Then at 3-5 with his back against the wall, Berdych missed another forehand. Now, serving at 6-3, Wawrinka blinked and served a double. But he immediately righted his ship and made the final with a service winner down the T to Berdych’s backhand.

It should be duly noted that there is no extraneous expenditure of energy from either of these players; they simply could not afford it. They are all business; they play at a crisp pace with little ball bouncing and they certainly don’t waste any energy with grunting or shrieking. The whole match was played with a great attitude – a great display of sportsmanship.

It’s amazing how close the match was statistically. Points: 142 to 143. Winners: 60 for Berdych, 57 for Wawrinka; the difference was the in the 21 to 18 ace edge for Berdych. Both had 49 ue’s. Tomas made 87 first serves compared to Stan’s 88. Stan won 72 compared to Tomas’s 71; Stan won two more 2nd serve points: 32 to 30. Stan did have the only converted break point in 4 chances; Tomas had just the one chance in the second set. Berdych led receiving points 41 to 39. There was, however, one key difference: 3 more double faults for Berdych including the 3 key ones in the last two tie-breakers.

Wawrinka has been much overlooked. Hardly anyone has named him as a possible contender for the top 4 or 5 places in the rankings. But with tonight’s win he has assured himself a move ahead of Murray and Berdych to at least the number 6 berth in the rankings. Unless Federer beats Nadal and then beats his fellow Swiss in the final, Stan has assured himself at least the number 5 ranking, not to mention the number two spot in the Race to London. And if he should manage one more victory, and remember that he gets an extra day of rest to prepare for Nadal or Federer, he not only leads the Race to London, but he takes up the number three position in the rankings. Of course, there would be the minor detail that he would become just the 6th man to win a grand slam title in the last 10 years.

Berdych’s fine run in this tournament should not be overlooked either. He played a very high quality match with 60 winners to 49 unforced errors. The statistical difference here was paper thin. It will be hard for Tomas not to take this loss hard. Especially after the double faults. I’ve always felt his first serve percentage was too low and his double faults were too high. He is striking the ball absolutely beautifully. And in my last post, I mentioned that I didn’t think any of the big guys could implement the aggressive style Federer has been using to take down his opponents the last 10 days. But Berdych’s technique on his volleys is so good and his approaches are so big, I think he could definitely play a lot more in the front court. I’d sure like to see it. He can improve his first serve percentage and eliminate some of those double faults. That is completely in his hands. Getting his confidence back after this loss may be a little tougher, but physically, he is such an imposing player, he is definitely capable of joining the top group. But he must fix that second serve and close just a little more.

In light of the way Wawrinka has competed on the biggest stages with three five-set matches against Djokovic in the last year and the increased maturity and consistency he has exhibited since joining forces with Magnus Norman last year, Stan could truly be the man in 2014. He’s still just 28 years old and has very few points to defend besides a final at Madrid and quarters at Roland Garos. At the very least, there is a significant changing of the guard. If Roger can continue to show the good form he’s had the last month, we will be talking about the top six players. (It would be the top 7 with Berdych. I think Ferrer is going to have a very hard time maintaining his current ranking in the next few months.) That would be very good for the game…and a lot more fun to watch. I think Djokovic and Nadal will continue to keep themselves separated from the rest, but the breach between them and the rest will begin to shrink just a little bit.

OMG One more night tomorrow without sleep to see Federer play Nadal. It’s going to be a long day today.

10sChiro

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