Australian Open Men’s Update

****** EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ******

 

* Del Potro collapses in five sets against Bautista Agut

* Seppi, Verdasco also upset on hottest day yet in Melbourne

* Nadal, Federer, Murray win easily

****** TODAY’S MEN’S NEWS ******

 

Australian Open

 

Singles – Second Round: (1) R Nadal def. T Kokkinakis 6-2 6-4 6-2

Anyone hoping Rafael Nadal would run out of energy in this heat — heat so bad that it forced a four hour delay in the action — obviously hasn’t seen him. He just keeps padding his lead in the rankings.

Singles – Second Round: (4) A Murray def. V Millot 6-2 6-2 7-5

After two strong sets by Andy Murray, Vincent Millot suddenly started to play, according to Murray, “unbelievabl[y],” and Murray found himself down 5-1 in the third. Whereupon the Murray who made the final in 2013 at last put in an appearance. Murray won 23 points in a row to take the match. But he’s still only #5 in safe points.

Singles – Second Round: R Bautista Agut def. (5) J del Potro 4-6 6-3 5-7 6-4 7-5

On the other hand, this opens a big opportunity for Murray and for David Ferrer. Juan Martin del Potro seemed to be rather dazed by the end — perhaps the heat got to him; he’s a very big guy, after all — and Roberto Bautista Agut played very good tennis, and it ended with del Potro the first of the top ten seeds to fall. He’s still at #3 in safe points, and by a wide margin, but Ferrer can pass him with a semifinal, and Murray with a final. Which, of course, is exactly what Ferrer and Murray managed last year.

Singles – Second Round: (6) R Federer def. B Kavcic 6-2 6-1 7-6(7-4)

Roger Federer continues to look good, but he is still a mere #8 in safe points.

Singles – Second Round: (10) J Tsonga def. T Bellucci 7-6(8-6) 6-4 6-4

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga remains #10 in safe points, but he’s far behind #9 Richard Gasquet…

Singles – Second Round: (11) M Raonic def. V Hanescu 7-6(11-9) 6-4 6-4

…and only 25 points ahead of Milos Raonic. With the next three players down the rankings all out, it seems nearly certain that either Tsonga or Raonic will claim the last Top Ten spot. Whoever lasts longer gets it, with ties to Raonic.

Singles – Second Round: (16) K Nishikori def. D Lajovic 6-1 6-1 7-6(7-3)

Kei Nishikori still needs one more win to defend his points, but at least his Top Twenty spot now looks quite safe.

Singles – Second Round: (18) G Simon def. M Cilic 4-6 7-6(7-3) 6-7(5-7) 6-1 6-2

Gilles Simon has really been pushed here; it will be interesting to see how long he can keep this up. He needs one more win to defend his points. Marin Cilic also needed one more win; this will drop him to no better than #37. And with most of his points still to defend in the next few months.

Singles – Second Round: (22) G Dimitrov def. Y Lu 6-3 6-3 7-6(13-11)

One more win just might put Grigor Dimitrov in the Top Twenty; two would assure it. He leaves Yen-Hsun Lu still below the Top Fifty.

Singles – Second Round: D Young def. (24) A Seppi 6-4 2-6 6-3 4-6 7-5

This is turning into a very bad year for Andreas Seppi. And he made the fourth round last year. This drops him from #25 to no better than #30, and he might go a spot or two lower.

Singles – Second Round: (25) G Monfils def. J Sock 7-6(7-2) 7-5 6-2

Gael Monfils should return to the Top Thirty after this, and he gets a rematch with Rafael Nadal, whom he scared (but of course did not beat) in Doha.

Singles – Second Round: (26) F Lopez def. M Berrer 6-4 7-6(8-6) 6-4

One more win would almost certainly make Feliciano Lopez Top 25.

Singles – Second Round: (27) B Paire def. N Kyrgios 6-7(5-7) 5-7(5-7) 6-4 6-2 6-2

Benoit Paire lost his opener last year, so he should be making the Top 25.

Singles – Second Round: T Gabashvili def. (31) F Verdasco 7-6(7-1) 3-6 2-6 6-4 6-4

Fernando Verdasco loses third round points and any hopes he had of making the Top Thirty.

Singles – Second Round: S Robert def. M Przysiezny 7-6(7-3) 6-1 6-7(3-7) 6-1

Stephane Robert is a Frenchman, but for some reason he seems to like hardcourts in the southern hemisphere. We’d guess this will make him Top Hundred; it will be close.

Singles – Second Round: M Klizan def. B Rola 6-4 6-3 5-7 7-6(7-2)

Martin Klizan, after a lost year in 2013, should also be making the Top Hundred. Amazing to note that we have two Lucky Losers in the third round. Even more amazing, we’ll get one in the fourth, because Robert faces Klizan next.

Doubles – First Round: (7) Bopanna/Qureshi def. Junaid/Mannarino 6-3 4-6 7-6(7-5)

The heat that caused all the delays in the singles produced even more trouble in the doubles; only half the matches were completed, and none of the top teams played on Thursday; we still haven’t seen Bryan/Bryan, Dodig/Melo, or Marrero/Verdasco (Verdasco, after all, spent most of the night playing singles). So there isn’t much to say about doubles. Rohan Bopanna has now defended his points from last year, and is within about 400 points of the Top Ten; Aisam Qureshi still needs one more win to defend his points. The Top Ten standings haven’t changed since yesterday, but here they are:

1..(1) Bryan………….12870

1..(1) Bryan………….12870

3..(3) Peya……………7310

3..(3) Soares………….7310

5..(5) Melo……………5190

6..(7) Dodig…………..5120

7..(6) Marrero…………4800

8..(8) Verdasco………..4230

9..(9) Paes……………4035

10.(10) Stepanek………..4000

Doubles – First Round: (11) Benneteau/Roger-Vasselin def. Elgin/Istomin 6-2 6-4

Eduard Roger-Vasselin came here having just hit the Top Twenty; this might be enough to keep him there, although we’d guess he’ll need more.

Doubles – First Round: (13) Llodra/Mahut def. Andujar/L Mayer 6-3 7-5

Doubles – First Round: (15) J Murray/Peers def. Reid/Saville 7-6(7-4) 7-6(8-6)

Doubles – First Round: Mirnyi/Youzhny def. Monroe/Zeballos 6-3 7-6(9-7)

Doubles – First Round: Bolelli/Fognini def. Harrison/Querrey 6-2 7-5

Bolelli/Fognini were semifinalists last year, so this is a good start.

Doubles – First Round: Haase/Kas def. Davydenko/Golubev 4-6 6-2 7-5

Robin Haase, last year’s finalist, doesn’t look to be in very good shape, however.

Doubles – First Round: Bolt/Whittington def. Knowle/Pospisil 2-1, retired

Vasek Pospisil’s back had been hurting in the second round of the singles, and he decided here that he couldn’t take any more. He also reportedly has pulled out of his singles match; that puts Stanislas Wawrinka in the fourth round, and probably means no Top 25 spot for Pospisil.

****** TODAY’S FEATURE ******

 

Mixed Messages on mixed dubs.

Another Slam, another Mixed Doubles event which is not seeded based on Mixed results. That will probably never change. But we continue to calculate our Mixed rankings to see what, if anything, we can learn from them.

 

To be sure, our system no longer bears the slightest resemblance to the ranking system used by either WTA or ATP. On the other hand, the fact that the unofficial rule of all ranking changes by both tours seems to be, “It’s no good unless it makes the rankings worse,” maybe a system based on an older rankings table is good….

To review: We rank men and women separately, based only on their Mixed Doubles results. A Slam title is worth 1000, a final is 700, a semifinal is 450, a quarterfinal 250, and a Round of Sixteen is worth 150. (This means, incidentally, that we hand out 9600 points to the men at each Slam, and 9600 to the women.) We take results from the last three years to get a decent number of events, but events older than one year old are discounted by 1/3 (and Rounds of 16 are dropped from the calculation); results more than two years old are discounted by 2/3.

It turns out that, under this system, we have 59 ranked women (meaning that we assign an unranked woman a ranking of 60):

 

Rank..Player………Points

1….Hradecka………2400

2….Mladenovic…….2150

3….Huber…………2017

4….Raymond……….1933

5….Vesnina……….1933

6….Srebotnik……..1867

7….Mirza…………1717

8….Peschke……….1583

9….Hlavackova…….1467

10….Gajdosova……..1400

11….Spears…………850

12….Mattek-Sands……817

13….Makarova……….750

14….Hsieh………….717

15….Black………….683

16….Petrova………..650

17….Llagostera Vives..583

18….ChanY………….533

19….Peers………….483

20….Dellacqua………483

21….Jans-Ignacik……467

22….Dushevina………450

22….Medina Garrigues..450

22….Rosolska……….450

22….Shvedova……….450

26….Grandin………..417

26….Zheng………….417

28….Benesova……….417

29….Barty………….400

30….Rodionova………400

31….Oudin………….333

32….Vinci………….300

32….Voskoboeva……..300

34….Cornet…………300

34….Date-Krumm……..300

34….Groenefeld……..300

34….Hantuchova……..300

38….ChanH………….250

39….Dulko………….233

40….Goerges………..167

40….Kudryavtseva……167

42….Arvidsson………150

42….Foretz Gacon……150

42….Husarova……….150

42….Jankovic……….150

42….Kops-Jones……..150

42….Lim……………150

42….Marosi…………150

42….Yan……………150

42….Zhang………….150

51….Kirilenko………150

52….Chuang………….83

52….Falconi…………83

52….Govortsova………83

52….Peer……………83

52….Shaughnessy……..83

52….Stubbs………….83

52….Uhlirova………..83

52….Zahlavova Strycov..83

There are 51 ranked men, so an unranked man is counted as #52:

 

Rank..Player………Points

1….Nestor………..2800

2….Soares………..2550

3….Cermak………..2400

4….Paes………….2017

5….Zimonjic………1683

6….Bhupathi………1533

7….Matkowski……..1500

8….GonzalezS……..1467

9….Mirnyi………..1317

10….Melo………….1083

11….Tecau…………1067

12….Ebden…………1000

13….Bopanna………..917

14….BryanM…………833

15….Qureshi………..767

16….Bracciali………750

17….Hanley…………717

18….BryanB…………633

19….Lipsky…………633

20….Marrero………..550

21….Fleming………..500

22….Rojer………….467

23….Istomin………..450

24….Polasek………..400

25….Mertinak……….383

26….Melzer…………333

26….Sock…………..333

28….Nielsen………..300

29….Cabal………….250

29….Emmrich………..250

31….Schwank………..233

32….Marach…………167

32….MartinD………..167

34….Brunstrom………150

34….Butorac………..150

34….Chardy…………150

34….Dlouhy…………150

34….Huey…………..150

34….Knowle…………150

34….Lindstedt………150

34….Peya…………..150

34….Roger-Vasselin….150

43….Bellucci……….150

43….MurrayJ………..150

43….Thomas…………150

46….Ball……………83

46….Erlich………….83

46….Johnson…………83

46….Norman………….83

46….Petzschner………83

46….RamA……………83

Having figured that out, we do as the Slams do and calculate Mixed seedings based on the combined rankings of the man and the woman. That gives us this list (note: We have a tie for the #5/#6 seed. We split such ties based on the ranking of the woman, although in this case it makes no practical difference):

 

Seed..Team………………Combined Rank

1…Mladenovic/Nestor……………….3

2…Vesnina/Bhupathi……………….11…Actual Seed: 8

3…Huber/Melo…………………….13…Actual Seed: 3

4…Peschke/Matkowski………………15…Actual Seed: 7

5…Mirza/Tecau……………………18…Actual Seed: 6

6…Hlavackova/Mirnyi………………18…Actual Seed: 4

7…Srebotnik/Bopanna………………19…Actual Seed: 2

8…Gajdosova/Ebden………………..22

*…Medina Garrigues/Soares…………24…Actual Seed: 5

*…Hantuchova/Paes………………..38

*…Dushevina/Rojer………………..44

*…Zheng/Lipsky…………………..45

*…Raymond/Fyrstenberg…………….56

*…Goerges/Qureshi………………..56

*…Black/Murray…………………..58

*…Spears/Inglot………………….63

*…Kuznetsova/Zimonjic…………….65

*…Hsieh/Klaasen………………….66

*…Groenefeld/Peya………………..68…Actual Seed: 1

*…Dellacqua/Hutchins……………..72

*…Chan, H/Lindstedt………………72

*…Kops-Jones/Huey………………..76

*…Parra Santonja/Marrero………….80

*…Barty/Peers……………………81

*…Rodionova, An./Fleming………….81

*…Rodionova, Ar./Kyrgios………….82

*…Bouchard/Groth………………..112

*…Pennetta/Fognini………………112

*…Rogowska/Smith………………..112

*…Sanders/Guccione………………112

*…Tomljanovic/Duckworth………….112

*…Vekic/Kokkinakis………………112

This is unusual. Six of the eight seeded teams are the same in both lists (four or five is more typical), and one of the two teams that is seeded in the actual draw but not Mixed just missed seeding in the latter.

But, of course, there is one big change: The #1 seeds based on Mixed are unseeded in the actual draw, and the #1 seeds in the actual draw would be unseeded under Mixed! And although six seeds are seeded under both systems, only one team (#3 Huber/Melo) has the same seed under both systems. So Mixed rankings do make some pretty bold predictions.

If we summarize the changes, they are as follows:

Promoted four seeding tiers:

Mladenovic/Nestor (from unseeded to #1)

Promoted two seeding tiers:

Vesnina/Bhupathi (from #8 to #2)

Promoted one seeding tier:

Peschke/Matkowski (from #7 to #4)

Gajdosova/Ebden (from unseeded to #8)

Seeding Tier Unchanged:

Huber/Melo (#3 either way)

Mirza/Tecau (#5 in Mixed, #6 in actual draw)

Demoted one seeding tier:

Hlavackova/Mirnyi (from #4 to #6)

Medina Garrigues/Soares (from #5 to unseeded)

Demoted two seeding tiers:

Srebotnik/Bopanna (from #2 to #7)

Demoted four seeding tiers:

Groenefeld/Peya (from #1 to unseeded)

Again, a relatively short list of changes. We’ll see how it works out in the actual

******** STATS AND FACTS ********

 

RANKINGS

 

Estimated ATP World Tour Rankings

As of January 16, 2014

 

Rank &

Prior…Player………..Points

1..(1) Nadal………….13220

2..(2) Djokovic……….10350

3..(5) Del Potro……….5370

4..(3) Ferrer………….5010

5..(4) Murray………….4450

6..(7) Berdych…………3910

7..(8) Wawrinka………..3800

8..(6) Federer…………3725

9..(9) Gasquet…………3050

10.(10) Tsonga………….2795

11.(11) Raonic………….2770

12.(12) Haas……………2435

13.(13) Isner…………..2320

14.(15) Youzhny…………2145

15.(16) Fognini…………2010

16.(14) Almagro…………1930

17.(18) Robredo…………1890

18.(17) Nishikori……….1825

19.(19) Simon…………..1700

20.(20) Janowicz………..1615

21.(22) Dimitrov………..1540

22.(21) Anderson………..1490

23.(24) Gulbis………….1443

24.(28) Paire…………..1380

25.(30) Pospisil………..1359

26.(27) Lopez…………..1355

27.(23) Kohlschreiber……1330

28.(26) Tursunov………..1314

29.(32) Monfils…………1245

30.(25) Seppi…………..1225

**DRAWS

 

Australian Open (Slam — Weeks of January 13-26)

…………………3R

1 Nadal…………..(1)Nadal

25 Monfils………..(25)Monfils

24 Seppi………….Young

16 Nishikori………(16)Nishikori

 

11 Raonic…………(11)Raonic

22 Dimitrov……….(22)Dimitrov

27 Paire………….(27)Paire

5 Del Potro……….Bautista Agut

 

4 Murray………….(4)Murray

26 Lopez………….(26)Lopez

[21 Kohlschreiber]…Robert(LL)

13 Isner………….Klizan(LL)

 

10 Tsonga…………(10)Tsonga

18 Simon………….(18)Simon

31 Verdasco……….Gabashvili

6 Federer…………(6)Federer

 

7 Berdych…………(7)Berdych

32 Dodig………….Dzumhur

19 Anderson……….(19)Anderson

12 Haas…………..Roger-Vasselin

 

14 Youzhny………..F.Mayer

20 Janowicz……….(20)Janowicz

29 Chardy…………(29)Chardy

3 Ferrer………….(3)Ferrer

 

8 Wawrinka………..(8)Wawrinka……Wawrinka

28 Pospisil……….(28)Pospisil

17 Robredo………..(17)Robredo

9 Gasquet…………(9)Gasquet

 

15 Fognini………..(15)Fognini

23 Gulbis…………Querrey

30 Tursunov……….Istomin

2 Djokovic………..(2)Djokovic

 

STATUS OF SEEDS

1 Nadal

2 Djokovic

3 Ferrer

4 Murray

5 Del Potro……….lost 2R (Bautista Agut)

6 Federer

7 Berdych

8 Wawrinka

9 Gasquet

10 Tsonga

11 Raonic

12 Haas…………..lost 1R (Garcia-Lopez)

13 Isner………….lost 1R (Klizan)

14 Youzhny………..lost 2R (Mayer)

15 Fognini

16 Nishikori

17 Robredo

18 Simon

19 Anderson

20 Janowicz

21 Kohlschreiber…..WITHDREW

22 Dimitrov

23 Gulbis…………lost 2R (Querrey)

24 Seppi………….lost 2R (Young)

25 Monfils

26 Lopez

27 Paire

28 Pospisil

29 Chardy

30 Tursunov……….lost 2R (Istomin)

31 Verdasco……….lost 2R (Gabashvili)

32 Dodig………….lost 2R (Dzumhur)

******** SCORES ********

 

THURSDAY

Australian Open

Singles – Second Round

(1) R Nadal def. T Kokkinakis 6-2 6-4 6-2

(4) A Murray def. V Millot 6-2 6-2 7-5

R Bautista Agut def. (5) J del Potro 4-6 6-3 5-7 6-4 7-5

(6) R Federer def. B Kavcic 6-2 6-1 7-6(7-4)

(10) J Tsonga def. T Bellucci 7-6(8-6) 6-4 6-4

(11) M Raonic def. V Hanescu 7-6(11-9) 6-4 6-4

(16) K Nishikori def. D Lajovic 6-1 6-1 7-6(7-3)

(18) G Simon def. M Cilic 4-6 7-6(7-3) 6-7(5-7) 6-1 6-2

(22) G Dimitrov def. Y Lu 6-3 6-3 7-6(13-11)

D Young def. (24) A Seppi 6-4 2-6 6-3 4-6 7-5

(25) G Monfils def. J Sock 7-6(7-2) 7-5 6-2

(26) F Lopez def. M Berrer 6-4 7-6(8-6) 6-4

(27) B Paire def. N Kyrgios 6-7(5-7) 5-7(5-7) 6-4 6-2 6-2

T Gabashvili def. (31) F Verdasco 7-6(7-1) 3-6 2-6 6-4 6-4

S Robert def. M Przysiezny 7-6(7-3) 6-1 6-7(3-7) 6-1

M Klizan def. B Rola 6-4 6-3 5-7 7-6(7-2)

Doubles – First Round

(7) Bopanna/Qureshi def. Junaid/Mannarino 6-3 4-6 7-6(7-5)

(11) Benneteau/Roger-Vasselin def. Elgin/Istomin 6-2 6-4

(13) Llodra/Mahut def. Andujar/L Mayer 6-3 7-5

(15) J Murray/Peers def. Reid/Saville 7-6(7-4) 7-6(8-6)

Mirnyi/Youzhny def. Monroe/Zeballos 6-3 7-6(9-7)

Bolelli/Fognini def. Harrison/Querrey 6-2 7-5

Haase/Kas def. Davydenko/Golubev 4-6 6-2 7-5

Bolt/Whittington def. Knowle/Pospisil 2-1, retired

Topics: 10sballs, Andy Murray, Atp, Australian Open, David Ferrer, Donald Young, Fernando Verdasco, GRIGOR DIMITROV, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Juan Martin Del Potro, milos raonic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Sports, Tennis, Tennis News

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