Australian Open Men’s Update
Australian Open Men's Update
****** EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ******
* Del Potro collapses in five sets against Bautista Agut
* Seppi, Verdasco also upset on hottest day yet in Melbourne
* Nadal, Federer, Murray win easily
****** TODAY’S MEN’S NEWS ******
Australian Open
Singles – Second Round: (1) R Nadal def. T Kokkinakis 6-2 6-4 6-2
Anyone hoping Rafael Nadal would run out of energy in this heat — heat so bad that it forced a four hour delay in the action — obviously hasn’t seen him. He just keeps padding his lead in the rankings.
Singles – Second Round: (4) A Murray def. V Millot 6-2 6-2 7-5
After two strong sets by Andy Murray, Vincent Millot suddenly started to play, according to Murray, “unbelievabl[y],” and Murray found himself down 5-1 in the third. Whereupon the Murray who made the final in 2013 at last put in an appearance. Murray won 23 points in a row to take the match. But he’s still only #5 in safe points.
Singles – Second Round: R Bautista Agut def. (5) J del Potro 4-6 6-3 5-7 6-4 7-5
On the other hand, this opens a big opportunity for Murray and for David Ferrer. Juan Martin del Potro seemed to be rather dazed by the end — perhaps the heat got to him; he’s a very big guy, after all — and Roberto Bautista Agut played very good tennis, and it ended with del Potro the first of the top ten seeds to fall. He’s still at #3 in safe points, and by a wide margin, but Ferrer can pass him with a semifinal, and Murray with a final. Which, of course, is exactly what Ferrer and Murray managed last year.
Singles – Second Round: (6) R Federer def. B Kavcic 6-2 6-1 7-6(7-4)
Roger Federer continues to look good, but he is still a mere #8 in safe points.
Singles – Second Round: (10) J Tsonga def. T Bellucci 7-6(8-6) 6-4 6-4
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga remains #10 in safe points, but he’s far behind #9 Richard Gasquet…
Singles – Second Round: (11) M Raonic def. V Hanescu 7-6(11-9) 6-4 6-4
…and only 25 points ahead of Milos Raonic. With the next three players down the rankings all out, it seems nearly certain that either Tsonga or Raonic will claim the last Top Ten spot. Whoever lasts longer gets it, with ties to Raonic.
Singles – Second Round: (16) K Nishikori def. D Lajovic 6-1 6-1 7-6(7-3)
Kei Nishikori still needs one more win to defend his points, but at least his Top Twenty spot now looks quite safe.
Singles – Second Round: (18) G Simon def. M Cilic 4-6 7-6(7-3) 6-7(5-7) 6-1 6-2
Gilles Simon has really been pushed here; it will be interesting to see how long he can keep this up. He needs one more win to defend his points. Marin Cilic also needed one more win; this will drop him to no better than #37. And with most of his points still to defend in the next few months.
Singles – Second Round: (22) G Dimitrov def. Y Lu 6-3 6-3 7-6(13-11)
One more win just might put Grigor Dimitrov in the Top Twenty; two would assure it. He leaves Yen-Hsun Lu still below the Top Fifty.
Singles – Second Round: D Young def. (24) A Seppi 6-4 2-6 6-3 4-6 7-5
This is turning into a very bad year for Andreas Seppi. And he made the fourth round last year. This drops him from #25 to no better than #30, and he might go a spot or two lower.
Singles – Second Round: (25) G Monfils def. J Sock 7-6(7-2) 7-5 6-2
Gael Monfils should return to the Top Thirty after this, and he gets a rematch with Rafael Nadal, whom he scared (but of course did not beat) in Doha.
Singles – Second Round: (26) F Lopez def. M Berrer 6-4 7-6(8-6) 6-4
One more win would almost certainly make Feliciano Lopez Top 25.
Singles – Second Round: (27) B Paire def. N Kyrgios 6-7(5-7) 5-7(5-7) 6-4 6-2 6-2
Benoit Paire lost his opener last year, so he should be making the Top 25.
Singles – Second Round: T Gabashvili def. (31) F Verdasco 7-6(7-1) 3-6 2-6 6-4 6-4
Fernando Verdasco loses third round points and any hopes he had of making the Top Thirty.
Singles – Second Round: S Robert def. M Przysiezny 7-6(7-3) 6-1 6-7(3-7) 6-1
Stephane Robert is a Frenchman, but for some reason he seems to like hardcourts in the southern hemisphere. We’d guess this will make him Top Hundred; it will be close.
Singles – Second Round: M Klizan def. B Rola 6-4 6-3 5-7 7-6(7-2)
Martin Klizan, after a lost year in 2013, should also be making the Top Hundred. Amazing to note that we have two Lucky Losers in the third round. Even more amazing, we’ll get one in the fourth, because Robert faces Klizan next.
Doubles – First Round: (7) Bopanna/Qureshi def. Junaid/Mannarino 6-3 4-6 7-6(7-5)
The heat that caused all the delays in the singles produced even more trouble in the doubles; only half the matches were completed, and none of the top teams played on Thursday; we still haven’t seen Bryan/Bryan, Dodig/Melo, or Marrero/Verdasco (Verdasco, after all, spent most of the night playing singles). So there isn’t much to say about doubles. Rohan Bopanna has now defended his points from last year, and is within about 400 points of the Top Ten; Aisam Qureshi still needs one more win to defend his points. The Top Ten standings haven’t changed since yesterday, but here they are:
1..(1) Bryan………….12870
1..(1) Bryan………….12870
3..(3) Peya……………7310
3..(3) Soares………….7310
5..(5) Melo……………5190
6..(7) Dodig…………..5120
7..(6) Marrero…………4800
8..(8) Verdasco………..4230
9..(9) Paes……………4035
10.(10) Stepanek………..4000
Doubles – First Round: (11) Benneteau/Roger-Vasselin def. Elgin/Istomin 6-2 6-4
Eduard Roger-Vasselin came here having just hit the Top Twenty; this might be enough to keep him there, although we’d guess he’ll need more.
Doubles – First Round: (13) Llodra/Mahut def. Andujar/L Mayer 6-3 7-5
Doubles – First Round: (15) J Murray/Peers def. Reid/Saville 7-6(7-4) 7-6(8-6)
Doubles – First Round: Mirnyi/Youzhny def. Monroe/Zeballos 6-3 7-6(9-7)
Doubles – First Round: Bolelli/Fognini def. Harrison/Querrey 6-2 7-5
Bolelli/Fognini were semifinalists last year, so this is a good start.
Doubles – First Round: Haase/Kas def. Davydenko/Golubev 4-6 6-2 7-5
Robin Haase, last year’s finalist, doesn’t look to be in very good shape, however.
Doubles – First Round: Bolt/Whittington def. Knowle/Pospisil 2-1, retired
Vasek Pospisil’s back had been hurting in the second round of the singles, and he decided here that he couldn’t take any more. He also reportedly has pulled out of his singles match; that puts Stanislas Wawrinka in the fourth round, and probably means no Top 25 spot for Pospisil.
****** TODAY’S FEATURE ******
Mixed Messages on mixed dubs.
Another Slam, another Mixed Doubles event which is not seeded based on Mixed results. That will probably never change. But we continue to calculate our Mixed rankings to see what, if anything, we can learn from them.
To be sure, our system no longer bears the slightest resemblance to the ranking system used by either WTA or ATP. On the other hand, the fact that the unofficial rule of all ranking changes by both tours seems to be, “It’s no good unless it makes the rankings worse,” maybe a system based on an older rankings table is good….
To review: We rank men and women separately, based only on their Mixed Doubles results. A Slam title is worth 1000, a final is 700, a semifinal is 450, a quarterfinal 250, and a Round of Sixteen is worth 150. (This means, incidentally, that we hand out 9600 points to the men at each Slam, and 9600 to the women.) We take results from the last three years to get a decent number of events, but events older than one year old are discounted by 1/3 (and Rounds of 16 are dropped from the calculation); results more than two years old are discounted by 2/3.
It turns out that, under this system, we have 59 ranked women (meaning that we assign an unranked woman a ranking of 60):
Rank..Player………Points
1….Hradecka………2400
2….Mladenovic…….2150
3….Huber…………2017
4….Raymond……….1933
5….Vesnina……….1933
6….Srebotnik……..1867
7….Mirza…………1717
8….Peschke……….1583
9….Hlavackova…….1467
10….Gajdosova……..1400
11….Spears…………850
12….Mattek-Sands……817
13….Makarova……….750
14….Hsieh………….717
15….Black………….683
16….Petrova………..650
17….Llagostera Vives..583
18….ChanY………….533
19….Peers………….483
20….Dellacqua………483
21….Jans-Ignacik……467
22….Dushevina………450
22….Medina Garrigues..450
22….Rosolska……….450
22….Shvedova……….450
26….Grandin………..417
26….Zheng………….417
28….Benesova……….417
29….Barty………….400
30….Rodionova………400
31….Oudin………….333
32….Vinci………….300
32….Voskoboeva……..300
34….Cornet…………300
34….Date-Krumm……..300
34….Groenefeld……..300
34….Hantuchova……..300
38….ChanH………….250
39….Dulko………….233
40….Goerges………..167
40….Kudryavtseva……167
42….Arvidsson………150
42….Foretz Gacon……150
42….Husarova……….150
42….Jankovic……….150
42….Kops-Jones……..150
42….Lim……………150
42….Marosi…………150
42….Yan……………150
42….Zhang………….150
51….Kirilenko………150
52….Chuang………….83
52….Falconi…………83
52….Govortsova………83
52….Peer……………83
52….Shaughnessy……..83
52….Stubbs………….83
52….Uhlirova………..83
52….Zahlavova Strycov..83
There are 51 ranked men, so an unranked man is counted as #52:
Rank..Player………Points
1….Nestor………..2800
2….Soares………..2550
3….Cermak………..2400
4….Paes………….2017
5….Zimonjic………1683
6….Bhupathi………1533
7….Matkowski……..1500
8….GonzalezS……..1467
9….Mirnyi………..1317
10….Melo………….1083
11….Tecau…………1067
12….Ebden…………1000
13….Bopanna………..917
14….BryanM…………833
15….Qureshi………..767
16….Bracciali………750
17….Hanley…………717
18….BryanB…………633
19….Lipsky…………633
20….Marrero………..550
21….Fleming………..500
22….Rojer………….467
23….Istomin………..450
24….Polasek………..400
25….Mertinak……….383
26….Melzer…………333
26….Sock…………..333
28….Nielsen………..300
29….Cabal………….250
29….Emmrich………..250
31….Schwank………..233
32….Marach…………167
32….MartinD………..167
34….Brunstrom………150
34….Butorac………..150
34….Chardy…………150
34….Dlouhy…………150
34….Huey…………..150
34….Knowle…………150
34….Lindstedt………150
34….Peya…………..150
34….Roger-Vasselin….150
43….Bellucci……….150
43….MurrayJ………..150
43….Thomas…………150
46….Ball……………83
46….Erlich………….83
46….Johnson…………83
46….Norman………….83
46….Petzschner………83
46….RamA……………83
Having figured that out, we do as the Slams do and calculate Mixed seedings based on the combined rankings of the man and the woman. That gives us this list (note: We have a tie for the #5/#6 seed. We split such ties based on the ranking of the woman, although in this case it makes no practical difference):
Seed..Team………………Combined Rank
1…Mladenovic/Nestor……………….3
2…Vesnina/Bhupathi……………….11…Actual Seed: 8
3…Huber/Melo…………………….13…Actual Seed: 3
4…Peschke/Matkowski………………15…Actual Seed: 7
5…Mirza/Tecau……………………18…Actual Seed: 6
6…Hlavackova/Mirnyi………………18…Actual Seed: 4
7…Srebotnik/Bopanna………………19…Actual Seed: 2
8…Gajdosova/Ebden………………..22
*…Medina Garrigues/Soares…………24…Actual Seed: 5
*…Hantuchova/Paes………………..38
*…Dushevina/Rojer………………..44
*…Zheng/Lipsky…………………..45
*…Raymond/Fyrstenberg…………….56
*…Goerges/Qureshi………………..56
*…Black/Murray…………………..58
*…Spears/Inglot………………….63
*…Kuznetsova/Zimonjic…………….65
*…Hsieh/Klaasen………………….66
*…Groenefeld/Peya………………..68…Actual Seed: 1
*…Dellacqua/Hutchins……………..72
*…Chan, H/Lindstedt………………72
*…Kops-Jones/Huey………………..76
*…Parra Santonja/Marrero………….80
*…Barty/Peers……………………81
*…Rodionova, An./Fleming………….81
*…Rodionova, Ar./Kyrgios………….82
*…Bouchard/Groth………………..112
*…Pennetta/Fognini………………112
*…Rogowska/Smith………………..112
*…Sanders/Guccione………………112
*…Tomljanovic/Duckworth………….112
*…Vekic/Kokkinakis………………112
This is unusual. Six of the eight seeded teams are the same in both lists (four or five is more typical), and one of the two teams that is seeded in the actual draw but not Mixed just missed seeding in the latter.
But, of course, there is one big change: The #1 seeds based on Mixed are unseeded in the actual draw, and the #1 seeds in the actual draw would be unseeded under Mixed! And although six seeds are seeded under both systems, only one team (#3 Huber/Melo) has the same seed under both systems. So Mixed rankings do make some pretty bold predictions.
If we summarize the changes, they are as follows:
Promoted four seeding tiers:
Mladenovic/Nestor (from unseeded to #1)
Promoted two seeding tiers:
Vesnina/Bhupathi (from #8 to #2)
Promoted one seeding tier:
Peschke/Matkowski (from #7 to #4)
Gajdosova/Ebden (from unseeded to #8)
Seeding Tier Unchanged:
Huber/Melo (#3 either way)
Mirza/Tecau (#5 in Mixed, #6 in actual draw)
Demoted one seeding tier:
Hlavackova/Mirnyi (from #4 to #6)
Medina Garrigues/Soares (from #5 to unseeded)
Demoted two seeding tiers:
Srebotnik/Bopanna (from #2 to #7)
Demoted four seeding tiers:
Groenefeld/Peya (from #1 to unseeded)
Again, a relatively short list of changes. We’ll see how it works out in the actual
******** STATS AND FACTS ********
RANKINGS
Estimated ATP World Tour Rankings
As of January 16, 2014
Rank &
Prior…Player………..Points
1..(1) Nadal………….13220
2..(2) Djokovic……….10350
3..(5) Del Potro……….5370
4..(3) Ferrer………….5010
5..(4) Murray………….4450
6..(7) Berdych…………3910
7..(8) Wawrinka………..3800
8..(6) Federer…………3725
9..(9) Gasquet…………3050
10.(10) Tsonga………….2795
11.(11) Raonic………….2770
12.(12) Haas……………2435
13.(13) Isner…………..2320
14.(15) Youzhny…………2145
15.(16) Fognini…………2010
16.(14) Almagro…………1930
17.(18) Robredo…………1890
18.(17) Nishikori……….1825
19.(19) Simon…………..1700
20.(20) Janowicz………..1615
21.(22) Dimitrov………..1540
22.(21) Anderson………..1490
23.(24) Gulbis………….1443
24.(28) Paire…………..1380
25.(30) Pospisil………..1359
26.(27) Lopez…………..1355
27.(23) Kohlschreiber……1330
28.(26) Tursunov………..1314
29.(32) Monfils…………1245
30.(25) Seppi…………..1225
**DRAWS
Australian Open (Slam — Weeks of January 13-26)
…………………3R
1 Nadal…………..(1)Nadal
25 Monfils………..(25)Monfils
24 Seppi………….Young
16 Nishikori………(16)Nishikori
11 Raonic…………(11)Raonic
22 Dimitrov……….(22)Dimitrov
27 Paire………….(27)Paire
5 Del Potro……….Bautista Agut
4 Murray………….(4)Murray
26 Lopez………….(26)Lopez
[21 Kohlschreiber]…Robert(LL)
13 Isner………….Klizan(LL)
10 Tsonga…………(10)Tsonga
18 Simon………….(18)Simon
31 Verdasco……….Gabashvili
6 Federer…………(6)Federer
7 Berdych…………(7)Berdych
32 Dodig………….Dzumhur
19 Anderson……….(19)Anderson
12 Haas…………..Roger-Vasselin
14 Youzhny………..F.Mayer
20 Janowicz……….(20)Janowicz
29 Chardy…………(29)Chardy
3 Ferrer………….(3)Ferrer
8 Wawrinka………..(8)Wawrinka……Wawrinka
28 Pospisil……….(28)Pospisil
17 Robredo………..(17)Robredo
9 Gasquet…………(9)Gasquet
15 Fognini………..(15)Fognini
23 Gulbis…………Querrey
30 Tursunov……….Istomin
2 Djokovic………..(2)Djokovic
STATUS OF SEEDS
1 Nadal
2 Djokovic
3 Ferrer
4 Murray
5 Del Potro……….lost 2R (Bautista Agut)
6 Federer
7 Berdych
8 Wawrinka
9 Gasquet
10 Tsonga
11 Raonic
12 Haas…………..lost 1R (Garcia-Lopez)
13 Isner………….lost 1R (Klizan)
14 Youzhny………..lost 2R (Mayer)
15 Fognini
16 Nishikori
17 Robredo
18 Simon
19 Anderson
20 Janowicz
21 Kohlschreiber…..WITHDREW
22 Dimitrov
23 Gulbis…………lost 2R (Querrey)
24 Seppi………….lost 2R (Young)
25 Monfils
26 Lopez
27 Paire
28 Pospisil
29 Chardy
30 Tursunov……….lost 2R (Istomin)
31 Verdasco……….lost 2R (Gabashvili)
32 Dodig………….lost 2R (Dzumhur)
******** SCORES ********
THURSDAY
Australian Open
Singles – Second Round
(1) R Nadal def. T Kokkinakis 6-2 6-4 6-2
(4) A Murray def. V Millot 6-2 6-2 7-5
R Bautista Agut def. (5) J del Potro 4-6 6-3 5-7 6-4 7-5
(6) R Federer def. B Kavcic 6-2 6-1 7-6(7-4)
(10) J Tsonga def. T Bellucci 7-6(8-6) 6-4 6-4
(11) M Raonic def. V Hanescu 7-6(11-9) 6-4 6-4
(16) K Nishikori def. D Lajovic 6-1 6-1 7-6(7-3)
(18) G Simon def. M Cilic 4-6 7-6(7-3) 6-7(5-7) 6-1 6-2
(22) G Dimitrov def. Y Lu 6-3 6-3 7-6(13-11)
D Young def. (24) A Seppi 6-4 2-6 6-3 4-6 7-5
(25) G Monfils def. J Sock 7-6(7-2) 7-5 6-2
(26) F Lopez def. M Berrer 6-4 7-6(8-6) 6-4
(27) B Paire def. N Kyrgios 6-7(5-7) 5-7(5-7) 6-4 6-2 6-2
T Gabashvili def. (31) F Verdasco 7-6(7-1) 3-6 2-6 6-4 6-4
S Robert def. M Przysiezny 7-6(7-3) 6-1 6-7(3-7) 6-1
M Klizan def. B Rola 6-4 6-3 5-7 7-6(7-2)
Doubles – First Round
(7) Bopanna/Qureshi def. Junaid/Mannarino 6-3 4-6 7-6(7-5)
(11) Benneteau/Roger-Vasselin def. Elgin/Istomin 6-2 6-4
(13) Llodra/Mahut def. Andujar/L Mayer 6-3 7-5
(15) J Murray/Peers def. Reid/Saville 7-6(7-4) 7-6(8-6)
Mirnyi/Youzhny def. Monroe/Zeballos 6-3 7-6(9-7)
Bolelli/Fognini def. Harrison/Querrey 6-2 7-5
Haase/Kas def. Davydenko/Golubev 4-6 6-2 7-5
Bolt/Whittington def. Knowle/Pospisil 2-1, retired
Topics: 10sballs, Andy Murray, Atp, Australian Open, David Ferrer, Donald Young, Fernando Verdasco, GRIGOR DIMITROV, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Juan Martin Del Potro, milos raonic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Sports, Tennis, Tennis News
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