Aussie Oven – Day 4 by Dr. Don Brosseau

Written by: Tennischiro on 15th January 2014

Aussie Oven - Day 4 by Dr. Don Brosseau

epaselect epa04021949 Jerzy Janowicz of Poland wraps an ice pack around his head during a second round match against Pablo Andujar of Spain at the Australian Open Grand Slam tennis tournament in Melbourne, Australia, 15 January 2014. Officials at the Australian Open on 15 January were assessing the cost of playing on in 42 Celsius heat after a record-equalling nine first-round retirements occurred on a sweltering day two of the grand slam. EPA/MAST IRHAM |

Forecast for Melbourne Airport, Daily Temperature Highs according to Weather Channel, temperature in degrees Fahrenheit

Today, Thursday 1/16: 104

Friday, 1/17: 104

Saturday, 1/18: 70

Sunday, 1/19: 71

Monday, 1/20: 77

Tuesday, 1/21: 72

Wednesday, 1/22: 75

Thursday, 1/23: 86

Friday, 1/24: 74 and 60% chance of rain

Saturday, 1/25: 77 and 0% chance of rain as are all the other days except 1/24

Men play one semifinal Thursday, 1/23 but it is a night match. The women, however, will play two semifinals on that day and the second of those will face some challenge from the heat, but nothing like they are facing today and tomorrow.

Nadal is the only player in the top 8 who will face midday heat today and he is playing a junior ranked outside the top 500. It will still be warm today for the other top players, but they will be out of the sun. They only have two more days of heat. Rafa got a not before 2:00 in the third match of the day, but Federer is not before 5, Del Potro is not before 6, Murray is a second night match and Monfils is fourth match of the day on his court. That would be a disadvantage for Rafa, but he is playing an Aussie 17 year-old wild card. The heat will not be a factor for any of them; maybe Del Potro; he looked pretty tired from Williams (who needs desperately to learn to S&V) yesterday; he’s struggling dragging that big body around, but he also looks very good.

The heat may create opportunities for some underdogs: Sock against Monfils, especially Young who only played three sets against Seppi who went the distance with Hewitt; Seppi and Young are first match on show court three at 11AM. Lu/Dimitrov and Verdasco/Gabashvili could be right in the middle of the worst of the heat; also Cilic/Simon and Tsonga/Bellucci and Raonic/Hanescu. The really big guys have a hard time in these conditions. Accordingly, I’d give a little edge to Lu and Simon in otherwise even matches on paper.

You have to remember the temperature on a hard court is 20 degrees F hotter on the surface of the tennis court than the ambient temperature. I have also been told that three feet above the surface of the court where the heat is reflected back up on a sunny day over 100F, it can be 30 degrees above the ambient temperature. The only blessing is the humidity continues to be low. Balls should be flying really fast and that may help someone like Sock as well.

Of course, we have yet to see the schedule for tomorrow’s matches for the third round in the bottom half. Berdych is facing a 21 y.o. 5′ 9″ Bosnian ranked 188. T-berd is not likely to wilt. Djokovic faces Istomin and the heat could help his S&V game, but Istomin is no grinder; Djokovic will continue without the loss of a set. But the other six matches in that half could all be battles of will and severely impacted by the heat. Mayer/Janowicz, Chardy/Ferrer, Wawrinka/Pospisil, Robredo/Gasquet and Fognini/Querry could all be dogfights. Even Anderson/Roger-Vasselin. Fitness could certainly play a major factor in all of those matches.

On the women’s side, look for the heat to make Wozniacki and Stephens unusually vulnerable today. Wozniacki is playing Christina McHale who can be very stubborn and Sloane is playing a 20 y.o Croatian newcomer with no picture or listed height or weight on the Aussie site who has risen to 67 in the world. Dangerous.

10sChiro

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Topics: 10sballs, Australian Open, Caroline Wozniacki, Juan Martin Del Potro, Melbourne, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Richard Gasquet, Roger Federer, Sam Querrey, Sports, Stanislas Wawrinka, Tennis, Tennis News