The Australian Open Men’s Preview By Dr. Don Brosseau

Written by: Tennischiro on 11th January 2014

The Australian Open Men's Preview By Dr. Don Brosseau

epa04014759 Roger Federer of Switzerland speaks during a press conference ahead of the Australian Open Grand Slam tennis tournament in Melbourne, Australia, 11 January 2014. The tournament will take place in Melbourne from 13 to 26 January 2014. EPA/NARENDRA SHRESTHA |

Australian Open 2014

Men’s Singles Draw

Quarter by Quarter

First Quarter, Top Seeds: Nadal and Del Potro

Nadal faces an interesting first round in a hot Bernard Tomic, but Rafa got plenty of prep in winning Doha and should be ready for the Aussie. If it happens, his third round match against Monfils could be a tougher challenge. Monfils was able to take a set in the finals of Doha.

In the second sixteenth of the draw, Hewitt and Nishikori could reprise their match from last week in Brisbane where Hewitt beat him on his way to his big victory over Roger in the final. But anyone coming out of that section figures to be a routine match for Nadal.

But in the second eighth of the draw (Del Potro’s eighth), you have more substantial possibilities in Raonic and Dimitrov as well as this week’s Auckland finalist, Lu. One of them should face Del Potro in the round of 16. If Del Potro holds the form he’s demonstrated this week in Sydney, he is almost a lock for the round of 16. If Del Potro gets to the quarters to face Nadal, he is almost guaranteed to take the number 3 spot in the rankings.

Del Potro is only defending 90 points at Australian while Murray and Ferrer are defending 1200 and 720 respectively and Delpo picked up another 70 points beating Tomic in the Sydney final. Take away the Australian points and the current standings for Del Potro, Ferrer and Murray would be Del Potro-5235, Ferrer-4920 (David lost 160 points this week in Auckland), Murray-4360. So if Del Potro only reaches the round of 16(180 points), Ferrer will need semis in Melbourne to stay ahead of him. And semis won’t be enough for Murray to stay ahead, even if Del Potro goes out in the first round. Del Potro has points to defend in February for Rotterdam. That top 4 ranking is very important coming to Rotterdam and Dubai as well as going forward in Indian Wells and Miami. This is why I think Del Potro will be firmly entrenched at the number three position by the end of March. And then he has very few points to defend for Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome. That means good seedings for Roland Garros and Wimbledon!

If the courts are as fast and as low bouncing in Melbourne as they appeared to be in Sydney and Auckland, it could be a long day for Nadal against Del Potro and what I think is an improved service motion with a slightly better elbow position in his backswing. Juan Martin appears to have adjusted to the faster courts he was complaining about just a bit at the beginning of the week and I wonder if the courts Nadal won on in Doha were as fast.

Second Quarter, Top Seeds: Murray and Federer

Through his first three matches in his little sixteenth of the draw there appears to be little competition for the Scot, although a third round against Feliciano Lopez on fast hard courts could certainly be dangerous. The fact that Murray has so many seemingly routine matches to find his timing in Melbourne could be a big help to him as he has played just one official match and a couple of exhibitions since his back surgery.

But the bottom half of Murray’s eighth of the draw includes a third round match between Auckland winner Isner and Kohlschreiber, who lost to John in the quarters without the loss of his serve, going down in three tie-break sets.

The top half of Federer’s eighth of the draw includes Tsonga, Cilic and Simon, while his own sixteenth of the draw presents some challenges in Stepanek in the second round with Verdasco or Stakhovsky looming in the third round. Remember, Stakhovsky upset Roger at Wimbledon last summer.

There will be a lot of interesting matches, but I like the favorites to make it through to the battle of the recovered bad backs in the quarters; how recovered will determine who comes through in that quarterfinal. If his back is really recovered from the surgery, it is a great draw for Murray to build into each succeeding round. Roger showed some good stuff in Brisbane, but ran out of gas a little against Hewitt. This is also a pretty good draw for him if he is really back to 100% physically. I think Stepanek will be the most dangerous match for Federer until the quarters. And if Murray really has it together to get through those early matches, he will be very tough in the quarters. However, I like both Nadal and del Potro over either Murray or Federer in the semis.

Third Quarter, Top Seeds: Berdych and Ferrer

Berdych should cruise into the fourth round. Once there, the seeding suggests he should face Kevin Anderson or Tommy Haas. Haas has been a formidable opponent at the Australian in the past and he may still have a little left in him, but Berdych looks very good for reaching the quarters.

The top half of Ferrer’s eighth of the draw includes Youzhny, Florian Mayer and Janowicz; actually it’s a very good draw for Jerzy. He looked terrible to me against Dolgopolov earlier this week and he needs a couple of good matches to develop into the kind of threat he showed himself to be last year. Ferrer’s own sixteenth of the draw gets him a good start into the tournament before he runs into Dolgopolov or Chardy in the second round. He could face SoCal’s own Steve Johnson in the second round, but he is a heavy favorite to reach the round of 16 in best of five; and he is a heavy favorite to come through the quarters and somewhat of a favorite in five sets against Berdych who split two matches with him in 2013. Ferrer won their only best of five in straight sets in a 2012 Davis Cup Final.

Fourth Quarter, Top Seeds: Wawrinka and Djokovic

Wawrinka doesn’t have the depth of experience among the top ten that the other members of the top 8 seeds do, but he is playing the best tennis of his career, just won the ATP event in Chennai without dropping a set, and played a great match here against Djokovic in the round of 16 last year. The other seed in his sixteenth of the draw is the Canadian, Pospisil, who played very well at the end of 2013, but there are no major floaters on the way to the round of 16. But the bottom sixteenth of Stan’s eighth of the draw includes Robredo, Rosol, Benneteau, Davydenko, Kubot and Gasquet, the ninth seed. Gasquet should make it out of there, but not without some tough matches. The Gasquet-Wawrinka matchup is one of the best round of 16 matches on paper. I think it stands a very good chance of materializing.

The final eighth of the draw is Djokovic’s section. The seeds in the top sixteenth of that section are Fognini and Gulbis. Floaters there include Querrey and Monaco and I wouldn’t want to have to pick who makes it out of that section. Gulbis and Querry are probably the most dangerous for an upset. But I don’t think it will make much difference to Djokovic. The other seed in Novak’s sixteenth of the draw is Tursunov. There are a bunch of good players in that section, but none that is likely to pull off a win off any top ten player. I doubt Djokovic would even lose a set before the quarters. But the rematch of last year’s encounter with Wawrinka will be one of the most anticipated matches of the tournament, if it happens.

I don’t think there is anyone there who can impede Djokovic’s inevitable progress to another Australian final. The one exception is Wawrinka, but I think Djokovic will be too prepared for him. The one thing that could work for Wawrinka is the influence of Becker. If Becker gets Djokovic to try something other than the formula that has been so successful with him, it could hamper Djokovic’s performance and supply an opening for Wawrinka. I just think it is a mistake to subjugate Vajda’s judgement and suggestions to those of Becker. If this change is not absolutely seamless, it could create a seed of doubt in Nole’s mind; that seed of doubt can be deadly at this level. But short of something like that happening, I can’t see anyone derailing the Djokovic Express short of the final meeting with Nadal whom I still see as the favorite on the other side.

Once in the final, the speed of the court and the conditions (open roof/closed roof?) could play a significant factor. I think Djokovic and his winning streak make him a slight favorite over Nadal to repeat. But Del Potro is playing awfully well. He made child’s play of Tomic in the Sydney final tonight; lost just 6 points on his serve in two sets! Nadal should be rested and primed. If I had to pick a longshot, I think it would be Wawrinka. He went to 12-10 in the fifth with Djokovic last year and the quicker court may help his aggressive game. If he plays well, he only has that one big upset to pull off against Nole. The rest he should win on current form until the final. And if he gets there, anything goes. In the meantime, Federer is enjoying running under the radar with reduced expectations. If his back is really as good as he would have us believe, the quicker courts could make a big difference for him. So it should be a very exciting tournament.

10sChiro

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Topics: 10sballs, Australian Open, Bernard Tomic, David Ferrer, Doha, Gael Monfils, Juan Martin Del Potro, Lleyton Hewitt, milos raonic, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Sports, Stanislas Wawrinka, Tennis, Tennis News