****** TODAY’S MEN’S NEWS ******
Auckland
Singles – Semifinal: Y Lu def. (1) D Ferrer 6-4 7-6(7-4)
David Ferrer had won this title three years in a row. But he is really, really in a funk right now. It won’t affect his ranking for the moment; he stays at #3. But, as our feature reveals, he is in real danger of falling to #4, or even #5, after the Australian Open.
Singles – Semifinal: (3) J Isner def. R Bautista Agut 3-6 7-6(7-2) 6-4
Like David Ferrer, John Isner hasn’t moved in the rankings yet. But he will be the clear favorite in the final, and if he wins it, he’ll rise to #13.
Doubles – Semifinal: (1) Peya/Soares def. Bracciali/Dlouhy 6-4 6-0
Doubles – Semifinal: (2) Knowle/Melo def. Butorac/Klaasen 7-6(7-3) 7-6(7-4)
Sydney
Singles – Semifinal: (1) J Del Potro def. (4) D Tursunov 6-4 6-2
No points yet for Juan Martin del Potro; even a title won’t help him in the rankings. But if you look at our Feature, you’ll see he’s #3 in post-Melbourne safe points. So his prospects this month are pretty interesting. Dmitry Tursunov will rise from #32 to probably #26.
Singles – Semifinal: B Tomic def. (Q) S Stakhovsky 6-7(4-7) 7-5 6-3
If Bernard Tomic could only do this somewhere other than Sydney, he might be going places. As it is, he still needs to win the final to stay close to the Top Fifty; if he loses to del Potro, he’ll be around #57.
Doubles – Semifinal: (3) Bopanna/Qureshi def. Rosol/Sousa 6-1 6-2
Doubles – Semifinal: Nestor/Zimonjic def. Benneteau/Roger-Vasselin 4-6 7-6(7-5) 10-5
Seven straight wins to start the year for Daniel Nestor. Let’s hope he isn’t tiring himself out too much before Melbourne.
****** TODAY’S FEATURE ******
Men’s Look Forward: Australian Open
Forget the Big Four. We’re down to a Big Two. And if Rafael Nadal wins the Australian Open, it’s going to look like a Big One.
Nadal already has the #1 ranking, and he didn’t play in Melbourne last year. Novak Djokovic, the only player who is even in Nadal’s vicinity in terms of points, is the defending champion. Nadal can only add points, Djokovic only lose. If Nadal adds and Djokovic loses enough, the Spaniard will find himself without a serious rival. At least in terms of numbers.
Nadal is naturally enough the #1 seed, and Djokovic #2, with David Ferrer #3, Andy Murray #4, Juan Martin del Potro #5, Roger Federer #6, Tomas Berdych #7, and Stanislas Wawrinka #8.
As the draw stands, it’s supposed to be Nadal versus Murray in the semifinal, and Djokovic versus Ferrer, but given the way Murray and Ferrer have played so far this year, it’s hard to know which of the top pair that favors.
It’s pretty clear who got the worst of it in the quarterfinals, though; it’s Nadal versus del Potro, Murray versus Federer, Ferrer versus Berdych, and Wawrinka versus Djokovic. A very top-heavy draw, obviously.
Djokovic’s luck is almost as good in the earlier rounds. Nadal’s route to the final runs through Bernard Tomic, Igor Sijsling, #25 seed Gael Monfils (who gave him fits in Doha), #16 Kei Nishikori or #24 Andreas Seppi or Lleyton Hewitt, and then Del Potro. Djokovic’s first two rounds are easy, but at least he faces some difficulty in #30 Dmitry Tursunov, then #15 Fabio Fognini or #23 Ernests Gulbis, then Wawrinka.
Ferrer too has a relatively easy first two rounds, but then comes #29 Jeremy Chardy, then #14 Mikhail Youzhny or #20 Jerzy Janowicz (both of whom, however, have been having problems, so maybe Florian Mayer has a chance), then Berdych. For Murray, the first two rounds are nothing. Then comes a battle of identical hair styles with #26 Feliciano Lopez, .then #13 John Isner or #21 Philipp Kohlschreiber, then Federer.
Frankly, all four top seeds look like good bets to make the quarterfinal.
Unfortunately for Nadal, del Potro seems likely to be around for their meeting, too. His first two rounds are again easy, and his third is against #27 Benoit Paire. Maybe he can be challenged by #11 Milos Raonic or #22 Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth.
Roger Federer wasn’t as lucky. He has to face Radek Stepanek in round two, then #31 Fernando Verdasco, then #10 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or #18 Gilles Simon or maybe Marin Cilic. He is perhaps the high seed in the most danger simply because of his draw.
#7 Tomas Berdych is clearly better off: two easy rounds, then #32 Ivan Dodig, then #12 Tommy Haas or #19 Kevin Anderson, who is struggling. #8 Stanislas Wawrinka has two easy rounds, then #28 Vasek Pospisil, then #9 Richard Gasquet or #17 Tommy Robredo or Lukas Rosol or Julien Benneteau or Nikolay Davydenko.
If we look over the draw for unseeded players who might do damage, the obvious candidate is Lleyton Hewitt, who opens against struggling #24 seed Andreas Seppi. After that would be Robin Haase, #16 Kei Nishikori, and Nadal. Also of note is Marin Cilic, who opens against Marcel Granollers for the right to face #18 Simon, then #10 Tsonga, then Federer. Ivo Karlovic opens against his fellow Croat, #32 seed Ivan Dodig, with the winner likely to face Berdych in round three. Florian Mayer opens against a qualifier, with the chance to face inconsistent Mikhail Youzhny in round two, then maybe Janowicz. Alexandr Dolgopolov could be Jeremy Chardy’s second round opponent. Lukas Rosol and Julien Benneteau will get their chances at #17 Tommy Robredo, who had to bail out of Hopman Cup, in the first and second rounds. And Sam Querrey could face Ernests Gulbis in round two.
The Rankings
In a certain way, the Australian Open stands out more than any other tournament on the calendar. That’s because it’s the first event of the year that really matters. The five tournaments that came before were all 250 point events — chump change. The Australian Open is a Slam. So it’s the first real chance to see how things are likely to turn out in 2014.
It wasn’t a perfect predictor, of course. Novak Djokovic was last year’s champion, and he wasn’t the year-end #1. On the other hand, he was the highest-ranked player among those who actually played the Australian Open. Andy Murray was the finalist; David Ferrer and Roger Federer made the semifinal. Quarterfinalists were Tomas Berdych, Nicolas Almagro, Jeremy Chardy, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Of the other members of the Top Ten, Stanislas Wawrinka and Richard Gasquet made the fourth round, Juan Martin del Potro the third, and of course Nadal did not play.
That means we could be in for a wildly different Top Ten. Nadal will be #1 no matter what (by between 800 and 4800 points, depending on results), and Djokovic will be #2 — but the #3 player in safe points is not David Ferrer, nor Andy Murray, nor Roger Federer; it’s Juan Martin del Potro. Del Potro and Ferrer are pretty close together in the contest for #3. Murray is a weak #5, more than 600 points back. Another 550 points behind him are Berdych, who is #6 in safe points, Wawrinka, #7, and Federer, #8; they’re within 200 points of each other, so the one who lasts longest will likely be #6. Then we have another more-than-600-point gap, to Richard Gasquet, who is 250 points ahead of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. And, yes, that means that we have the same Top Ten in safe points as we had coming in. On the other hand, Milos Raonic is only 25 points behind Tsonga, so he has a good Top Ten shot. Tommy Haas is 250 points behind that, and John Isner and Mikhail Youzhny more than 250 behind that (although Isner can close that gap a little if he wins Auckland), so Raonic is the only player who can really be said to be a strong threat to the Top Ten.
Our rough cut on the Top Fifteen in safe points is as follows:
1..(1) Nadal………….13140
2..(2) Djokovic……….10270
3..(5) Del Potro……….5175
4..(3) Ferrer………….4930
5..(4) Murray………….4370
6..(7) Berdych…………3830
7..(8) Wawrinka………..3720
8..(6) Federer…………3645
9..(9) Gasquet…………2970
10.(10) Tsonga………….2715
11.(11) Raonic………….2690
12.(12) Haas……………2435
13.(14) Isner…………..2160
14.(15) Youzhny…………2110
15.(13) Almagro…………1940
Nicolas Almagro runs a real risk of falling out of the Top Fifteen. Andreas Seppi, who made the fourth round last year, could well lose his Top Thirty spot. Jeremy Chardy could find himself around #50.
In doubles, the Bryans are in no danger despite being defending champions. Since Peya/Soares lost in the second round, we don’t even have a contest for #3/#4. There will be a contest for #5; we’d say Ivan Dodig has the inside track (he’s a very strong #6 with nothing to defend), but it’s a close race.
KEYWORDS: Preview Australian Open Men
******** THIS WEEK IN TENNIS ********
THIS WEEK ON THE ATP WORLD TOUR:
Sydney (250/Hard). Defending Champion: Bernard Tomic
Auckland (250/Hard). Defending Champion: David Ferrer
NEXT WEEK ON THE ATP WORLD TOUR:
Australian Open (Slam/Hard). Defending Champion: Novak Djokovic
******** STATS AND FACTS ********
RANKINGS
Estimated ATP World Tour Rankings
As of January 10, 2014
Rank &
Prior…Player………..Points
1..(1) Nadal………….13130
2..(2) Djokovic……….12260
3..(3) Ferrer………….5640
4..(4) Murray………….5560
5..(5) Del Potro……….5255
6..(6) Federer…………4355
7..(7) Berdych…………4180
8..(8) Wawrinka………..3890
9..(9) Gasquet…………3140
10.(10) Tsonga………….3065
11.(11) Raonic………….2860
12.(12) Haas……………2435
13.(13) Almagro…………2290
14.(14) Isner…………..2150
15.(15) Youzhny…………2145
16.(16) Fognini…………1930
17.(17) Nishikori……….1915
18.(18) Robredo…………1810
19.(19) Simon…………..1790
20.(21) Janowicz………..1615
21.(20) Anderson………..1580
22.(23) Dimitrov………..1460
23.(22) Kohlschreiber……1420
24.(24) Gulbis………….1418
25.(25) Seppi…………..1360
26.(32) Tursunov………..1314
27.(27) Lopez…………..1310
28.(28) Paire…………..1300
29.(29) Melzer………….1290
30.(30) Pospisil………..1289
**DRAWS
Sydney
…………….QF……………SF………..F
1 del Potro…..(1)del Potro…..del Potro….del Potro
[Ramos(LL)]…..Stepanek
4 Tursunov……(4)Tursunov……Tursunov
7 Cilic………Istomin
6 Benneteau…..Stakhovsky(Q)….Stakhovsky
3 Seppi………Matosevic(WC)
8 Granollers….Tomic…………Tomic……..Tomic
2 Janowicz……Dolgopolov
STATUS OF SEEDS
1 del Potro
2 Janowicz…..lost 2R (Dolgopolov)
3 Seppi……..lost 2R (Matosevic)
4 Tursunov…..lost SF (del Potro)
5 Pospisil…..WITHDREW
6 Benneteau….lost 2R (Stakhovsky)
7 Cilic……..lost 2R (Istomin)
8 Granollers…lost 1R (Tomic)
Auckland
……………..QF……………….SF…………F
1 Ferrer………(1)Ferrer…………Ferrer
8 Haase……….Garcia-Lopez
4 Anderson…….Johnson(LL)
9 Brands………Lu……………….Lu…………Lu
5 Kohlschreiber..(5)Kohlschreiber
3 Isner……….(3)Isner………….Isner………Isner
6 Paire……….Bautista Agut……..Bautista Agut
2 Haas………..Sock(WC)
STATUS OF SEEDS
1 Ferrer………lost SF (Lu)
2 Haas………..lost 2R (Sock)
3 Isner
4 Anderson…….lost 2R (Johnson)
5 Kohlschreiber..lost QF (Isner)
6 Paire……….lost 2R (Bautista Agut)
7 Monfils……..WITHDREW (replaced by Brands)
8 Haase……….lost 1R (Garcia-Lopez)
9 Brands………lost 1R (Klahn)
Australian Open (Slam — Weeks of January 13-26)
1 Nadal
Tomic
Kokkinakis (WC)
Sijsling
Kamke
Sock
Harrison
25 Monfils
24 Seppi
Hewitt
Haase
Young
Qualifier
Pouille (WC)
Matosevic
16 Nishikori
11 Raonic
Gimeno-Traver
Qualifier
Hanescu
Qualifier
Lu
Klahn
22 Dimitrov
27 Paire
Qualifier
Kyrgios (WC)
Becker
Bautista Agut
Smyczek
Qualifier
5 Del Potro
4 Murray
Soeda
Qualifier
Qualifier
Qualifier
Llodra
Devvarman
26 Lopez
21 Kohlschreiber
Bedene
Przysiezny
Zeballos
Qualifier
Delbonis
Qualifier
13 Isner
10 Tsonga
Volandri
Qualifier
Reister
Cilic
Granollers
Brands
18 Simon
31 Verdasco
Qualifier
Gabashvili
Stakhovsky
Stepanek
Kavcic
Duckworth (WC)
6 Federer
7 Berdych
Nedovyesov
Wu (WC)
De Schepper
Hajek
Qualifier
Karlovic
32 Dodig
19 Anderson
Vesely
Qualifier
Sousa
Berlocq
Roger-Vasselin
Garcia-Lopez
12 Haas
14 Youzhny
Struff
Mayer
Qualifier
Ramos
Andujar
Thompson (WC)
20 Janowicz
29 Chardy
Huta Galung
Qualifier
Dolgopolov
Johnson (WC)
Mannarino
Gonzalez
3 Ferrer
8 Wawrinka
Golubev
Falla
Kukushkin
Mahut
Ebden
Groth (WC)
28 Pospisil
17 Robredo
Rosol
Carreno Busta
Benneteau
Davydenko
Kubot
Qualifier
9 Gasquet
15 Fognini
Bogomolov
Sela
Nieminen
Giraldo
Querrey
Monaco
23 Gulbis
30 Tursunov
Russell
Baghdatis
Istomin
Mayer
Montanes
Lacko
2 Djokovic
******** SCORES ********
FRIDAY
Auckland
Singles – Semifinal
Y Lu def. (1) D Ferrer 6-4 7-6(7-4)
(3) J Isner def. R Bautista Agut 3-6 7-6(7-2) 6-4
Doubles – Semifinal
(1) Peya/Soares def. Bracciali/Dlouhy 6-4 6-0
(2) Knowle/Melo def. Butorac/Klaasen 7-6(7-3) 7-6(7-4)
Sydney
Singles – Semifinal
(1) J Del Potro def. (4) D Tursunov 6-4 6-2
B Tomic def. (Q) S Stakhovsky 6-7(4-7) 7-5 6-3
Doubles – Semifinal
(3) Bopanna/Qureshi def. Rosol/Sousa 6-1 6-2
Nestor/Zimonjic def. Benneteau/Roger-Vasselin 4-6 7-6(7-5) 10-5
Topics: 10sballs, Andy Murray, Australian Open, Bernard Tomic, David Ferrer, Florian Mayer, John Isner, Juan Martin Del Potro, Lleyton Hewitt, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Sports, Tennis, Tennis News, Tomas Berdych