Men’s/ Ladies Reports For Oct. 31

Happy Halloween, from all our staff here at 10sballs.com!

 

****** EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ******

 

* Berdych tops Raonic to end Race

* It’s Nadal, Djokovic, Ferrer, del Potro, Berdych, Federer, Wawrinka, Gasquet

* Tsonga #1 alternate, Raonic #2

* Benneteau/Llodra eliminated from doubles, but doubles Race isn’t quite over

****** TODAY’S MEN’S NEWS ******

 

Paris

 

Singles – Third Round: (1) R Nadal def. (14) J Janowicz 7-5 6-4

Rafael Nadal isn’t giving Novak Djokovic much opportunity in the contest for #1…. Jerzy Janowicz was defending big points this week, so he will be falling hard — we show him at #21.

Singles – Third Round: (2) N Djokovic def. (13) J Isner 6-7(5-7) 6-1 6-2

For a while, we wondered if the contest for the year-end #1 would end today. Instead, what is over is John Isner’s year. It appears he’ll be #14, and of course the highest-ranked American by far.

Singles – Third Round: (3) D Ferrer def. (15) G Simon 6-2 6-3

David Ferrer is now only a little more than 400 points behind Andy Murray in the Race. The loss means that Gilles Simon will end the year probably #19.

Singles – Third Round: (4) J del Potro def. G Dimitrov 3-6 6-3 6-4

Juan Martin del Potro is now within 750 points of Andy Murray in the contest for the year-end #3 (or at least #4) spot. It looks as if Grigor Dimitrov will be #23 — which still makes this the best year of his young career, of course. He appears likely to make the Top Twenty next year.

Singles – Third Round: (5) R Federer def. P Kohlschreiber 6-3 6-4

We’ll admit to wondering how seriously Roger Federer would take this match — indeed, to wondering if he would even play this match. After all, he has qualified for London, and surely wants to save his energy for that. On the other hand, the points here are a little easier to earn than in London. So, strategically, this is probably smart. He’s still stuck at #7, though. Philipp Kohlschreiber will end the year probably #22.

Singles – Third Round: (6) T Berdych def. (10) M Raonic 7-6(15-13) 6-4

It would seem there really is a gap between the players who will qualify for London and those who won’t. Every match involved a player who would qualify for London and one who wouldn’t. And, in all eight cases, the London qualifier won. That is, our eight quarterfinalists are also the eight players who will assemble next week for the year-end Championships.

But most of the London qualifiers were settled before the day began. This was the big match, because Milos Raonic was the only player left who could still overtake Stanislas Wawrinka and Richard Gasquet. With this, obviously, Raonic is out of it; our qualifiers are Nadal, Djokovic, Ferrer, del Potro, Berdych, Federer, Wawrinka, and Gasquet. Tsonga is the #1 alternate; Raonic will have to settle for #2 — and, unless he somehow gets to play London, the year-end #11 ranking.

Singles – Third Round: (7) S Wawrinka def. (12) N Almagro 6-3 6-2

Wednesday, Stanislas Wawrinka assured that Nicolas Almagro would not qualify for London. Thursday, he saw to it that Almagro wouldn’t even be the alternate. Almagro will probably end the year at #13; this is the result that made Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Milos Raonic the alternates.

Singles – Third Round: (9) R Gasquet def. K Nishikori 6-3 6-2

By the time he played, Richard Gasquet knew that he would qualify for London, but apparently he didn’t want to leave anything to chance. It looks as if Kei Nishikori will end the year at #17.

Doubles – Second Round: (1) Bryan/Bryan def. Fyrstenberg/Matkowski 6-3 5-7 10-8

And here we thought this would be open and shut! But the Polish pair had the motivation of trying to qualify for London. They came in #8 in the Race, and vulnerable — and vulnerable they remain.

Doubles – Second Round: (2) Peya/Soares def. Fognini/Seppi 7-6(7-4) 6-7(1-7) 10-8

Doubles – Second Round: (3) Granollers/M Lopez def. Butorac/Klaasen 6-3 1-6 10-5

Doubles – Second Round: (4) Dodig/Melo def. Chardy/Simon 6-3 6-2

Doubles – Second Round: Mirnyi/Tecau def. (6) Marrero/Verdasco 6-7(3-7) 7-5 10-8

By the skin of their teeth, Mirnyi/Tecau keep themselves alive in the Race. Marrero/Verdasco came in at #6 in the doubles Race, still slightly vulnerable. They clinched, however, when Fyrstenberg/Matkowski lost. The clinched teams are Bryan/Bryan, Peya/Soares, Dodig/Melo, Granollers/Lopez, Qureshi/Rojer, Marrero/Verdasco, and Paes/Stepanek. Fyrstenberg/Matkowski are #8, more than 200 points ahead of Mirnyi/Tecau. So the race is largely down to Mirnyi/Tecau chasing Fyrstenberg/Matkowski.

Doubles – Second Round: (8) Qureshi/Rojer def. Benneteau/Zimonjic 6-4 6-4

This was an early match, so the Race was still fairly alive when it started, but this was it for Benneteau/Zimonjic; they won’t make London.

****** TODAY’S FEATURE ******

 

The Final Laps

 

Do you ever wonder how the Tours calculate the Races to the year-end Championships? Or, rather, do you ever wonder how they decide when someone is clinched?

It sounds simple: You qualify when you have enough points that you are sure to be in the Top Eight at year-end. But that, in fact, is a very difficult and complex calculation.

Let’s start with the easy part: Figuring out when one is out of the Race. For any particular player, this is easy: You look at the Race total of whoever is #8 in the Race. (Or, this year, whoever is #9, since the #9 player will qualify.) You then take the total Race points of the player you are looking at. It’s easy to figure out what is his maximum Race total: You just take his current Race score, and count up whatever he can still earn, and add it up. For example, the #9 player entering this week was Richard Gasquet, with 3120 points. Tommy Robredo was #16 with 1810 points starting this week. Since the most Robredo could have earned was 1000 points, making a total of 2810, he was out of the Race. Simple enough? Sure, now — but think about last week. Robredo, had he played Basel or Valencia, could have added another 500, for a total of 3310 — enough to have a chance. Robredo however had 20 points in his last optional event (Brisbane), so the most he could have added at Valencia was 500-20, or 480. That still added up to 3290, so Robredo was still in the Race — but it made the calculation more complex. Anyone whose maximum possible points was less than Gasquet’s 3120 points is out.

Robredo was not in good shape, though (and that’s not just because he didn’t play). Robredo, even if he won everything, would have only a 170 point lead on Gasquet’s current score. And Gasquet will likely add points at Paris.

All this ignores the Grand Slam Wildcard, of course. That doesn’t often apply in singles these days — it won’t this year, for instance, although it could matter in doubles (Paes/Stepanek, #7 in the Race, actually qualified before #6 Marrero/Verdasco). In any case, it just means you have to figure out what it takes to catch up to #7 in the Race instead of #8 or #9.

But that’s not the whole story. The above shows how you figure out when a player is out, but players can clinch at a time when no players are out. In recent years, the #1 (Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic) has tended to clinch some time around June. Their point totals at that stage were still low enough that any player on the ATP could still overtake them. So what gives?

This week, it’s all pretty simple — but as recently as three weeks ago, it was an incredibly mess and the paragraph about Robredo and qualifying was so complicated that we would not have dared run it. The surprising thing is, until the very end of the season, there is no relationship between the number of players who are out and whether any particular player clinches!

This may sound impossible, but it’s not. Let’s take the case of Gasquet again. We know that, entering the week, #13 Nicolas Almagro could still pass Gasquet. But he had to win Paris to do it. The guy who came in #12 in the Race, Tommy Haas, could also still have passed Gasquet if he won Paris. But Almagro and Haas obviously could not both win Paris. So while Gasquet could still be overtaken, he could not be overtaken by both Almagro and Haas.

This shows how you clinch: You earn enough points that there is no possible combination of results which leaves you below #8 in the Race.

Oddly enough, this means that it is easy to calculate when the first few players qualify, and when the last few players qualify, but much harder to do the ones in the middle. (It’s why the ATP took so long to clinch David Ferrer, e.g.) The first few qualifiers are easy, because you just have to figure out the eight maximum possible point totals that anyone other than the Race leaders can yet earn, and see that the lowest of them are less than the Race leaders have. This is straightforward, because in mid-year you can essentially just take the top players in the Race and see how they are doing — it’s accurate enough. Again, at the end, there are only a few possible outcomes remaining, and the problem is tractable. By the time we get to Paris, or even the events this week, you can easily sort out the players still in contention and see what is possible for them.

But in the middle — ouch. Consider that, entering Paris, we had three spots still to settle on the ATP side. We had, entering the week, eight contenders for those spots. Let’s just look at what our remaining seven contenders had available. We still have one award of a thousand points (Paris title), one of 600 points (Paris final), two of 360 points (Paris semifinals), etc. Two weeks before that, we had one award of a thousand points (Paris title), one of 600 points (Paris final), two of 500 points (Basel and Valencia titles), two of 360 points (Paris semifinals), two of 300 points (Basel and Valencia finals), five of 250 points (the three 250s before Basel), etc. Now start thinking about the number of possibilities of results. There are nine different ways one of our eight different candidates could win Paris (that is, Race #7 Federer could win it, or #8 Wawrinka could win it, or Gasquet or Tsonga or Raonic or Haas or or Almagro or Youzhny — or none of them could win it). For any given winner, there are eight different ways one of them could be the finalist (because the same guy can’t be both winner and finalist). And so forth.

Now look at what we have: Taking just those two results, out of all the possible results still to be awarded this year, and we already have 72 possible ways to distribute those results among our seven different contenders from #7 to #15 in the Race! Start adding in all the other possibilities, and the number of possible outcomes climbs exponentially fast.

Plus we have to take into account which Race contenders are playing each week, and where they are playing (e.g. if two players are in the same event, they can’t both win it), and the totals in their fourth 500 point event and their second 250 point event, and where they stand in the draw.

If you go back all the way to, say, Cincinnati, and count all the possible outcomes, and all the players then still in contention, our in-our-head estimate is that you’re looking at billions of possible Race outcomes. Too many for even a computer to handle by try-every-possibility brute force.

There are ways to simplify the problem — e.g. you can assume that you don’t have to include players below a certain points threshold in your calculations. Or you can consider classes of possibilities — this is what we do in the summer, and it let us qualify Rafael Nadal before the ATP did. We also qualified David Ferrer before the ATP. Either the ATP is considering a different set of classes, or they are using a different method altogether. They aren’t talking, and we won’t try to guess. Their method seems too conservative when it comes to qualifying players during the late summer, although their method and ours (which we admittedly calculate only approximately) are converged this week. In the meantime — neither you nor we know exactly who will qualify. But now you know a little more about why it can take so long to figure out.

KEYWORDS: Race Qualification Algorithm

******** THIS WEEK IN TENNIS ********

 

THIS WEEK ON THE ATP WORLD TOUR:

Paris (1000/Indoor Hard). Defending Champion: David Ferrer

NEXT WEEK ON THE ATP WORLD TOUR:

London (Championships/Indoor Hard). Defending Champion: Novak Djokovic

******** STATS AND FACTS ********

 

RANKINGS

 

Estimated ATP World Tour RACE

As of October 31, 2013

 

Rank &

Prior…Player………..Points

1..(1) Nadal………….11850

2..(2) Djokovic………..9790

3..(3) Murray………….5790

4..(4) Ferrer………….5380

5..(5) Del Potro……….5055

6..(6) Berdych…………3980

7..(7) Federer…………3625

8..(8) Wawrinka………..3330

9..(9) Gasquet…………3300

10.(10) Tsonga………….3065

11.(11) Raonic………….2860

12.(12) Haas……………2435

13.(13) Almagro…………2290

14.(15) Isner…………..2150

15.(14) Youzhny…………2145

16.(16) Fognini…………1930

17.(17) Nishikori……….1915

18.(18) Robredo…………1810

19.(19) Simon…………..1790

20.(20) Anderson………..1650

21.(21) Janowicz………..1615

22.(22) Kohlschreiber……1525

23.(23) Dimitrov………..1520

24.(24) Gulbis………….1393

25.(25) Seppi…………..1360

26.(26) Paire…………..1345

27.(27) Melzer………….1315

28.(28) Lopez…………..1310

29.(29) Tursunov………..1244

30.(32) Verdasco………..1235

**DRAWS

 

Paris — Week of October 29

 

……………3R…………..QF

1 Nadal……..(1)Nadal……..Nadal

14 Janowicz….(14)Janowicz

9 Gasquet……(9)Gasquet……Gasquet

8 Tsonga…….Nishikori

 

3 Ferrer…….(3)Ferrer…….Ferrer

15 Simon…….(15)Simon

10 Raonic……(10)Raonic

6 Berdych……(6)Berdych……Berdych

 

5 Federer……(5)Federer……Federer

11 Haas……..Kohlschreiber

16 Fognini…..Dimitrov

4 del Potro….(4)del Potro….del Potro

 

7 Wawrinka…..(7)Wawrinka…..Wawrinka

12 Almagro…..(12)Almagro

13 Isner…….(13)Isner

2 Djokovic…..(2)Djokovic…..Djokovic

 

STATUS OF SEEDS:

1 Nadal

2 Djokovic

3 Ferrer

4 del Potro

5 Federer

6 Berdych

7 Wawrinka

8 Tsonga…….lost 2R (Nishikori)

9 Gasquet

10 Raonic……lost 3R (Berdych)

11 Haas……..lost 2R (Kohlschreiber)

12 Almagro…..lost 3R (Wawrinka)

13 Isner…….lost 3R (Djokovic)

14 Janowicz….lost 3R (Nadal)

15 Simon…….lost 3R (Ferrer)

16 Fognini…..lost 2R (Dimitrov)

******** SCORES ********

 

THURSDAY

Paris

Singles – Third Round

(1) R Nadal def. (14) J Janowicz 7-5 6-4

(2) N Djokovic def. (13) J Isner 6-7(5-7) 6-1 6-2

(3) D Ferrer def. (15) G Simon 6-2 6-3

(4) J del Potro def. G Dimitrov 3-6 6-3 6-4

(5) R Federer def. P Kohlschreiber 6-3 6-4

(6) T Berdych def. (10) M Raonic 7-6(15-13) 6-4

(7) S Wawrinka def. (12) N Almagro 6-3 6-2

(9) R Gasquet def. K Nishikori 6-3 6-2

Doubles – Second Round

(1) Bryan/Bryan def. Fyrstenberg/Matkowski 6-3 5-7 10-8

(2) Peya/Soares def. Fognini/Seppi 7-6(7-4) 6-7(1-7) 10-8

(3) Granollers/M Lopez def. Butorac/Klaasen 6-3 1-6 10-5

(4) Dodig/Melo def. Chardy/Simon 6-3 6-2

Mirnyi/Tecau def. (6) Marrero/Verdasco 6-7(3-7) 7-5 10-8

(8) Qureshi/Rojer def. Benneteau/Zimonjic 6-4 6-4

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

****** EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ******

 

* Halep goes 3-0, cruises to #1 in group

* Ivanovic 2-0, likely to advance; Vesnina edges Pironkova

****** TODAY’S WOMEN’S NEWS ******

 

Sofia

 

Singles – Round Robin: (2) (WC) Ana Ivanovic def. (4) Samantha Stosur 6-2 5-7 6-2

This still isn’t enough points to make any difference to Ana Ivanovic — but the win moves her to 2-0, which obviously makes it very likely that she will reach the semifinal here.

Singles – Round Robin: (5) Elena Vesnina def. (8) (WC) Tsvetana Pironkova 6-2 4-6 6-0

This was even closer than you probably think — the first set was very tense despite the lopsided score. But Tsvetana Pironkova really does seem to have stamina problems, and the whole thing lasted more than two hours. Hence, perhaps, the score of the final set. For Pironkova, that means she is 0-2; she isn’t going to make the semifinal, although just showing up here and earning appearance points should take her about ten places above her current #119; if she can somehow win her final match, she should earn direct entry into the Australian Open. (She may anyway, but that round robin win would really help.) Elena Vesnina is now 1-1, so she still has a shot at the semifinal — but she’ll have to beat Ivanovic to have any chance, while her rival, Samantha Stosur, faces Pironkova. Things don’t look good for Vesnina. And she still hasn’t earned enough points to rise above #25; she might yet fall.

Singles – Round Robin: (1) Simona Halep def. (Alt) Elina Svitolina 6-1 6-1

Simona Halep is 3-0, and it still isn’t enough points to budge her ranking! But she is in the semifinal, and anything else she can do will let her move up. Substitute Elina Svitolina ends up 0-2, meaning she will end the year at #40, which is where she came in. Still, it was a breakthrough year for her, if not quite as much of one as it was for Halep.

Nanjing $125K

 

It was another day of second round matches, with two seeds through, one seed down. #6 Misaki Doi lost in straight sets to Jarmila Gajdosova, but #4 Ayumi Morita and #2 Yanina Wickmayer advanced. For Wickmayer, that appears to clinch her Top Sixty spot, but she hasn’t moved much yet. One more win would probably take her from #60 to #58.

****** TODAY’S FEATURE ******

 

KEYWORDS: No Feature Today

******** THIS WEEK IN TENNIS ********

 

THIS WEEK ON THE WTA:

Sofia (International Championships/Indoor Hard). Defending Champion: Nadia Petrova

Fed Cup Final

NEXT WEEK ON THE WTA:

Challengers Only

************ STATS AND FACTS ************

 

**RANKINGS

 

Estimated WTA Rankings As of October 31, 2013

 

Rank &

Prior

Rank….Name…………..Points

1..(1) SWilliams ……… 13260

2..(2) Azarenka ………..8046

3..(3) Li ……………..6045

4..(4) Sharapova ……… 5891

5..(5) ARadwanska ………5875

6..(6) Kvitova ……….. 4775

7..(7) Errani ………….4435

8..(8) Jankovic ………..4170

9..(9) Kerber ………….3965

10.(10) Wozniacki ……… 3520

11.(11) Stephens ………..3185

12.(12) Bartoli ……….. 3172

13.(13) Vinci …………. 3170

14.(14) HALEP …………. 3140*

15.(15) Lisicki ……….. 2920

16.(16) IVANOVIC ………..2850*

17.(17) Suarez Navarro …..2735

18.(18) KIRILENKO ……… 2640

19.(19) STOSUR ………….2580*

20.(20) Flipkens ………..2495

21.(21) Kuznetsova ………2341

22.(22) Cirstea ……….. 2170

23.(23) Cibulkova ……… 2076

24.(24) Makarova ………..2066

25.(25) VESNINA ……….. 1970*

26.(26) PAVLYUCHENKOVA …..1930*

27.(27) CORNET ………….1840*

28.(28) Hampton ……….. 1781

29.(29) Safarova ………..1775

30.(30) Kanepi ………….1752

**DRAWS

 

Sofia — Week of October 28

 

GROUP SERDIKA……HALEP….KIRIL….PAVLY….CORNE….SVITO….W/L….Sets

1 Halep…………XXXXX….XXXXX….HALEP….HALEP….HALEP….3/0….6/0

7 Cornet………..HALEP….CORNE….+++++….XXXXX….XXXXX….1/1….2/2

5 Pavlyuchenkova…HALEP….XXXXX….XXXXX….+++++….PAVLY….1/1….2/2

3 Kirilenko……..+++++….XXXXX….+++++….CORNE….XXXXX….0/1….0/2

9 Svitolina……..HALEP….XXXXX….PAVLY….XXXXX….XXXXX….0/2….0/4

 

GROUP SREDETS……IVANO….STOSU….VESNI….PIRON….W/L….Sets

2 Ivanovic………XXXXX….IVANO….+++++….IVANO….2/0….4/1

4 Stosur………..IVANO….XXXXX….STOSU….+++++….1/1….3/2

5 Vesnina……….+++++….STOSU….XXXXX….VESNI….1/1….2/3

8 Pironkova……..IVANO….+++++….VESNI….XXXXX….0/2….1/4

******** SCORES ********

 

THURSDAY

Sofia

Singles – Round Robin

(1) Simona Halep def. (Alt) Elina Svitolina 6-1 6-1

(2) (WC) Ana Ivanovic def. (4) Samantha Stosur 6-2 5-7 6-2

(5) Elena Vesnina def. (8) (WC) Tsvetana Pironkova 6-2 4-6 6-0

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