Federer wins in Basel / Updates on Valencia / Paris

Written by: on 25th October 2013
Swiss Indoors tennis tournament in Basel
Federer wins in Basel / Updates on Valencia / Paris

epa03924720 Switzerland's Roger Federer serves a ball to Bulgaria's Grigor Dimitrov, during their quarter final match at the Swiss Indoors tennis tournament at the St. Jakobshalle in Basel, Switzerland, 25 October 2013. EPA/GEORGIOS KEFALAS  |

****** EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ******

 

* Del Potro beats Mathieu to earn career win #300

* Federer comes back from big hole to almost clinch London spot

* Roger-Vasselin beats Brands to hit Top Fifty

* Pospisil wins despite stiff neck

* Ferrer back in semifinal

****** TODAY’S MEN’S NEWS ******

 

Basel

 

Singles – Quarterfinal: (1) J del Potro def. (Q) P Mathieu 6-4 6-4

An historic win for Juan Martin del Potro — #300 of his career. If you saw wire service reports that make this the most ever by an Argentine player, however, they forgot Guillermo Vilas…. But it does take del Potro closer to the year-end #4. Paul-Henri Mathieu, who was defending semifinalist points, will drop from #101 to around #120.

Singles – Quarterfinal: (3) R Federer def. (8) G Dimitrov 6-3 7-6(7-2)

It was almost as if Roger Federer had magically seen the Paris draw (which all but assures that he will earn a London spot) and slacked off. Having won the first set against Grigor Dimitrov, he went down a break and very nearly went down two; he faced three set points. And then he came back to life. That means that Grigor Dimitrov’s winning streak ends at seven, with his ranking still at #22. For Federer, this win plus the shape of the Paris draw (where Gasquet must face Tsonga early) means that he has all but clinched for London; win his semifinal and he is in.

Singles – Quarterfinal: E Roger-Vasselin def. D Brands 6-3 4-6 6-3

Even before this match started, Edouard Roger-Vasselin knew that he had a wildcard into Paris (along with Michael Llodra and Nicolas Mahut). But he isn’t relying on that to try to make it into the year-end Top Fifty; he’s doing it here. We show him rising to about #47. And he did well enough to earn a Paris Special Exempt, so Adrian Mannarino got the last Paris wildcard….

Singles – Quarterfinal: V Pospisil def. I Dodig 7-6(13-11) 6-4

Maybe Vasek Pospisil should play with a stiff neck more often. He wasn’t even sure he could play, but the combination of drugs and help from the trainer brought him through. And, in fact, takes him past Ivan Dodig in the rankings. Dodig, who was defending semifinalist points, will fall from #29 to around #37; Pospisil is up to #32.

Doubles – Quarterfinal: Knowle/Marach def. (1) Bopanna/Roger-Vasselin 6-4 6-4

We’re not sure this mathematically eliminates Bopanna/Roger-Vasselin from the Race; it was very close as of the conclusion of this match. But it’s quite certain in practice that they won’t make it.

Doubles – Quarterfinal: (3) Fyrstenberg/Matkowski def. Dlouhy/Hanley 6-3 6-2

As we saw yesterday, Fyrstenberg/Matkowski are #8 in the ATP doubles Race, but a rather weak #8. So adding points here could be a big deal.

Valencia

 

Singles – Quarterfinal: (1) D Ferrer def. (5) J Janowicz 6-4 4-6 6-0

At first glance, this might seem like not-too-bad news for Jerzy Janowicz — he will rise to #14 despite the loss. But he has the Paris final to defend next week. This was his one chance to put points in the bank. He added a few, but not many; there is a real chance he will fall below #20 after Paris.

Singles – Quarterfinal: (3) N Almagro def. (7) F Fognini 7-6(8-6) 6-2

When Fabio Fognini cracked, he cracked badly — the end of the second set seemed to take no time at all. That means no Top Fifteen spot for Fognini. Nicolas Almagro remains at #13, and needs a title to go higher — but, amazingly, he is still alive in the ATP Race.

Singles – Quarterfinal: M Youzhny def. J Nieminen 7-5 6-7(4-7) 6-4

Given that both these guys are past thirty, it’s probably a good thing that this was the day’s early match; Mikhail Youzhny can use the extra rest. He leaves Jarkko Nieminen at probably #38.

Singles – Quarterfinal: D Tursunov def. J Chardy 6-3 6-3

This guarantees us a Russian finalist, since Tursunov faces Youzhny next. Tursunov probably will earn an Australian Open seed as a result of this; he is #30 in safe points — three spots ahead of Chardy, who won’t make the Top Thirty and will probably need a little more to be seeded in Melbourne.

Doubles – Quarterfinal: (2) Peya/Soares def. Isner/F Lopez 3-6 7-5 10-5

Doubles – Quarterfinal: J Murray/Peers def. Nieminen/Tursunov 6-1 6-3

It won’t be settled until next week, but Murray/Peers are boosting their Paris chances. They still need a lot more, but it’s promising. Too bad the team they’re trying to catch, Fyrstenberg/Matkowski, are also winning….

****** TODAY’S FEATURE ******

 

Men’s Look Forward: Paris

 

So which is more important, Paris or London?

It’s an interesting question. London has the biggest tennis event of the year other than the Slams. But only eight players play. And Paris is the gatekeeper for London. It is this week which will settle who forms the Elite Eight.

Some years, when the London field has been effectively set and the year-end #1 not in play, Paris has featured relatively weak fields. This year, with three London spots open as of this writing and the year-end #1 still up for grabs, if barely, Paris is big. And hence strong. We have every one of the top 18 players except Andy Murray. Rafael Nadal heads the seed list (with all seeds having byes). Novak Djokovic is #2, David Ferrer #3, Juan Martin del Potro #4, Roger Federer #5, Tomas Berdych #6, Stanislas Wawrinka #7, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga #8. In an amazing bit of luck-of-the-draw, Richard Gasquet is #9 — and he and Tsonga, who are slugging it out for the last London spot, are drawn to face each other in the third round!

There are no other such amazing draws; Milos Raonic is #10 and drawn against Berdych; Tommy Haas #11 and up against Federer; Nicolas Almagro #12 and due to face Wawrinka; John Isner #13 and in Djokovic’s eighth; Jerzy Janowicz #14 and with the bad luck of having to face Nadal; Giles Simon #15 and in Ferrer’s part of the draw; and Fabio Fognini #16 and up against del Potro.

Assuming all the seeds come through. That seems a pretty poor bet. Nadal has to open against Dmitry Tursunov or Marcel Granollers, which isn’t too bad. Janowicz has a very soft draw. But Gasquet has to start against Ernests Gulbis or Fernando Verdasco. Tsonga starts against Kei Nishikori, the top unseeded player, or fellow Frenchman Julien Benneteau. Ferrer may well face another Frenchman, Jeremy Chardy. Simon and Raonic have decent draws, but Berdych will open against either Vasek Pospisil or Gael Monfils. Federer opens against either Kevin Anderson or Mikhail Youzhny — who just happen to be the #2 and #3 unseeded players. Haas will start against Philipp Kohlschreiber, who beat him last week to pretty well end his Race hopes, or Andreas Seppi. Fognini is likely to face red-hot Grigor Dimitrov. Wawrinka could face Feliciano Lopez. Almagro starts against either Ivan Dodig or hot Frenchman Edouard Roger-Vasselin. Isner has a draw he should be able to handle; Djokovic could well start against Benoit Paire.

And then there is del Potro, who will face either a qualifier or… Marin Cilic, who just had his suspension reduced and is eligible to return to action at once. We have no idea what form Cilic will be in, but it’s certainly an intriguing match!

The Rankings

Ordinarily at this time we would be talking about who is defending what, and how that affects their rankings. If it matters, David Ferrer won Paris last year, with Jerzy Janowicz the finalist and Gilles Simon and Michael Llodra semifinalists. That means that Llodra — who has more than a third of his points on the line — is just about sure to end the year below the Top Fifty; an early loss would leave him around #100. Simon and Janowicz could easily end up below the Top Twenty.

But presumably what you really care about, at this point, is the Race. Especially since London comes off this week as well as Paris.

Coming in, Rafael Nadal has a lead of 2060 points on Novak Djokovic. The most Djokovic can earn at London is 1500. That means that Djokovic needs to gain at least 560 points on Nadal this week to have any chance for the year-end #1. That means he needs a final if Nadal loses his opener. If Nadal wins his opener, then Djokovic needs a title. And if Nadal makes the Paris final, he clinches the year-end #1 no matter what Djokovic does.

Andy Murray comes in at #3, but he faces a real risk of losing that spot, either to David Ferrer if Ferrer defends his title or, just possibly, to Juan Martin del Potro if Del Potro can win both Basel and Paris.

It is almost certain that Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, Ferrer, and Del Potro will be the Top Five after this week (although that isn’t as certain after London); only Tomas Berdych can move up on them, and only with a title, and only if del Potro leaves the door open at Basel. Berdych will likely stay #6; almost certainly he won’t fall below #7.

Which brings us to the really interesting spots, the #7, #8, and #9 positions, since those three will be our last London qualifiers. Right now, the spots belong to Roger Federer, Stanislas Wawrinka, and Richard Gasquet. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is 65 points behind Gasquet and 95 behind Wawrinka; Milos Raonic is 350 behind Gasquet.

That means the players could end up in almost any order, but Raonic (and the guys behind him, such as Tommy Haas and Nicolas Almagro) face a daunting challenge: Raonic needs at least a final. Tsonga is at least close enough to the #9 spot that (barring a miracle by Raonic) he needs merely to outlast Gasquet to qualify — and, since they face each other early, that means he simply has to win their meeting. Of course, Gasquet effectively qualifies if he wins that meeting. Wawrinka’s lead over Gasquet is trivial, too; if Gasquet can outlast the Swiss, then he clinches. The fact that Gasquet and Tsonga cannot both pass Federer means Federer’s position now looks pretty good although not yet clinched. Wawrinka also benefits from the fact that the Frenchmen are so close together; we’d say his chances are at least 75%, but since he is behind Federer, he has more to worry about from Raonic and the rest.

KEYWORDS: Preview Paris

******** THIS WEEK IN TENNIS ********

 

THIS WEEK ON THE ATP WORLD TOUR:

Valencia (500/Indoor Hard). Defending Champion: David Ferrer

Basel (500/Indoor Hard). Defending Champion: Juan Martin del Potro

NEXT WEEK ON THE ATP WORLD TOUR:

Paris (1000/Indoor Hard). Defending Champion: David Ferrer

******** STATS AND FACTS ********

 

RANKINGS

 

Estimated ATP World Tour Rankings

As of October 25, 2013

 

Rank &

Prior…Player………..Points

1..(1) Nadal………….11520

2..(2) Djokovic……….11120

3..(3) Ferrer………….6480

4..(4) Murray………….6295

5..(5) Del Potro……….5045

6..(7) Berdych…………4180

7..(6) Federer…………4125

8..(8) Wawrinka………..3240

9..(9) Tsonga………….3235

10.(10) Gasquet…………3130

11.(11) Raonic………….2860

12.(12) Haas……………2425

13.(13) Almagro…………2290

14.(15) Janowicz………..2150

15.(14) Isner…………..2070

16.(16) Simon…………..2060

17.(17) Fognini…………2010

18.(18) Nishikori……….1915

19.(19) Robredo…………1830

20.(21) Youzhny…………1825

21.(20) Anderson………..1730

22.(22) Dimitrov………..1500

23.(24) Kohlschreiber……1445

24.(25) Gulbis………….1431

25.(27) Seppi…………..1395

26.(26) Paire…………..1380

27.(23) Melzer………….1325

28.(28) Tipsarevic………1310

29.(30) Lopez…………..1275

30.(39) Tursunov………..1244

**DRAWS

 

Basel — Week of October 22

 

……………QF…………..SF

1 del Potro….(1)del Potro….(1)del Potro

5 Gasquet……Mathieu(Q)

4 Wawrinka…..Roger-Vasselin..Roger-Vasselin

7 Seppi……..Brands

 

8 Dimitrov…..(8)Dimitrov

3 Federer……(3)Federer……Federer

6 Nishikori….Dodig

2 Berdych……Pospisil……..Pospisil

 

STATUS OF SEEDS:

1 del Potro

2 Berdych…….lost 1R (Karlovic)

3 Federer

4 Wawrinka……lost 1R (Roger-Vasselin)

5 Gasquet…….lost 1R (Llodra)

6 Nishikori…..lost 2R (Dodig)

7 Seppi………lost 1R (Brands)

8 Dimitrov……lost QF (Federer)

Valencia — Week of October 22

 

…………..QF…………..SF

1 Ferrer……(1)Ferrer…….Ferrer

5 Janowicz….(5)Janowicz

3 Almagro…..(3)Almagro……Almagro

7 Fognini…..(7)Fognini

 

8 Anderson….Tursunov……..Tursunov

4 Isner…….Chardy

6 Simon…….Nieminen

2 Haas……..Youzhny………Youzhny

 

STATUS OF SEEDS:

1 Ferrer

2 Haas…….lost 1R (Kohlschreiber)

3 Almagro

4 Isner……lost 2R (Chardy)

5 Janowicz…lost QF (Ferrer)

6 Simon……lost 1R (Falla)

7 Fognini….lost QF (Almagro)

8 Anderson…lost 1R (Bautista Agut)

Paris — Week of October 29

 

1 Nadal

–bye

Tursunov

Granollers

Mannarino (WC)

Qualifier

–bye

14 Janowicz

 

9 Gasquet

–bye

Gulbis

Verdasco

Nishikori

Benneteau

–bye

8 Tsonga

 

3 Ferrer

–bye

Rosol

Chardy

Mahut (WC)

Dolgopolov

–bye

15 Simon

 

10 Raonic

–bye

Istomin

Qualifier

Monfils

Pospisil

–bye

6 Berdych

 

5 Federer

–bye

Anderson

Youzhny

Seppi

Kohlschreiber

–bye

11 Haas

 

16 Fognini

–bye

Llodra (WC)

Dimitrov

Qualifier

Cilic

–bye

4 del Potro

 

7 Wawrinka

–bye

Lopez

Qualifier

Roger-Vasselin (SE)

Dodig

–bye

12 Almagro

 

13 Isner

–bye

Qualifier

Nieminen

Paire

Qualifier

–bye

2 Djokovic

******** SCORES ********

 

FRIDAY

Basel

Singles – Quarterfinal

(1) J del Potro def. (Q) P Mathieu 6-4 6-4

(3) R Federer def. (8) G Dimitrov 6-3 7-6(7-2)

E Roger-Vasselin def. D Brands 6-3 4-6 6-3

V Pospisil def. I Dodig 7-6(13-11) 6-4

Doubles – Quarterfinal

Knowle/Marach def. (1) Bopanna/Roger-Vasselin 6-4 6-4

(3) Fyrstenberg/Matkowski def. Dlouhy/Hanley 6-3 6-2

Valencia

Singles – Quarterfinal

(1) D Ferrer def. (5) J Janowicz 6-4 4-6 6-0

(3) N Almagro def. (7) F Fognini 7-6(8-6) 6-2

D Tursunov def. J Chardy 6-3 6-3

M Youzhny def. J Nieminen 7-5 6-7(4-7) 6-4

Doubles – Quarterfinal

(2) Peya/Soares def. Isner/F Lopez 3-6 7-5 10-5

J Murray/Peers def. Nieminen/Tursunov 6-1 6-3

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