Rafa’s Lucky Number is 666!!! by Don Brosseau

Written by: Staff on 17th October 2013

Rafa's Lucky Number is 666!!! by Don Brosseau

epa03860104 Rafael Nadal of Spain hits a return to Novak Djokovic of Serbia during the men's final on the fifteenth day of the 2013 US Open Tennis Championship at the USTA National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York, USA, 09 September 2013. The US Open runs through Monday 09 September, a 15-day schedule for the first time. EPA/PORTER BINKS |

There is a lot of excitement around the year-end battle for top spots and especially Novak Djokovic’s effort to wrest the top spot back from Rafael Nadal for the year-end rankings throne. Believe it or not, Rafa’s lucky number is 666. He is playing Basel next week (500 potential points to the winner), Paris (1000 potential points to the winner) and London’s year-end ATP Championships (1500 potential points to the winner). Djokovic opted to decline a last minute wildcard invitation to play Valencia, so he has just the Paris and London tournaments left (2500 potential points), but he also has the Davis Cup finals and two victories and a team victory could mean another 225 points for Nole there (75 points per match plus a possible 75 point bonus if he wins a 6th and 7th Davis Cup match in the calendar year and his team wins the Cup).

Many fans are confused and think Djokovic trails Nadal by just 400 points, 11120 to 11520, but that is the 52-week rolling ranking that includes last year’s results. It’s especially deceiving because Nadal has no points to defend from this period last year, while Djokovic won 1500 points in the London championships in 2012. The real way to look at the standings is to pull up the Race to London points which shows Djokovic trailing by 2060 points, 11670 to 9610. NOTE: Rafa’s points actually go up for the shorter year-to-date rankings because he gets to count a 150 point performance in his first tournament this year in Vina del Mar that gets knocked off by a 0 for last year’s Valencia when he must have had a late withdrawal when his recovery was not as fast as he thought it would be.

So Djokovic needs to exceed Nadal’s point total by 2061 points in this period to overtake Nadal for the top ranking. It is still mathematically possible because he certainly is capable of sweeping the two tournaments as well as the Davis Cup matches; that would be worth 2725 points to Nole (he’s going to need someone else on the team to win a point for him to get that last 75 points, and that’s not certain.)

Nadal has just the three tourneys to add to his points total; no Davis Cup finals for Spain this year. But all he needs is enough points to add to his lead to get that differential greater than the maximum point total Djokovic can earn in the three events he has left. 2725 – 2060 plus one point = 666 points. Once Rafa gets past 666 points in Basel, Paris and London, he’s insured the number one year-end ranking for 2013; that’s an amazing accomplishment on top of the great year he’s had after a 7 month layoff and missing the Australian and going out in the first round at Wimbledon.

I think Novak will pull off his year-end sweep; at least I think he is the favorite to do that, maybe not even money, but at least a heavy favorite the way he’s been playing. But he’s going to have to have a lot of help from other players to cut into that 2060 point Nadal lead. Just semis in Basel (180pts), one win to 3rd round in Paris(90 pts) and two round robin wins in London(400 pts) makes it a mathematical impossibility.

Too complicated?! Just remember Nadal needs just 666 points to wrap up the year-end number one ranking and Djokovic must sweep almost everything to have a mathematical chance. Nadal could wrap it up with a title in Basel and just quarters at Paris. That would make it anticlimactic. Let’s hope someone knocks him off early in Basel to keep the contest interesting. Nadal and 666!! Really I didn’t make this up!

Topics: 10sballs, Atp, Davis Cup, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Sports, Tennis, Tennis News, Wimbledon