Not an Overnight Sensation! – By Dr. Don Brosseau

Written by: Tennischiro on 4th July 2013

Not an Overnight Sensation! - By Dr. Don Brosseau

epa03773244 Jerzy Janowicz of Poland returns to his compatriot Lukasz Kubot during their quarter-final match for the Wimbledon Championships at the All England Lawn Tennis Club, in London, Britain, 03 July 2013. EPA/TOM HEVEZI |

It’s been 8 months since I picked Jerzy Janowicz as the future of men’s pro tennis and the next great star. He’s had six months of tournaments to improve his status and fulfill some of his promise. And he’s doing it in front of our eyes at Wimbledon this week.

It is instructive to realize as much as this player seems to have come from nowhere bursting on the scene like a supernova with a cornucopia of explosive weapons exceedingly appropriate for July 4, it is a long road that he took to get here. If you examine that road just a little bit, you will more readily be able to understand the overwhelming emotion he displayed in his inability to give a post match interview after his victory over his countryman, Lukasz Kubot in the quarterfinals.

Ranking
Aug 2007    Singles 1506 -reached finals of US Open Juniors
Jan 2008    Singles 1484 -reached finals of Roland Garros Juniors
Jun 2008    Singles   671        Doubles 901
Jan 2009    Singles   337    Doubles 733
Jan 2010    Singles   318    Doubles 868
Jan 2011    Singles   161        Doubles xxx
Jan 2012    Singles   221        Doubles 797

Jul 2012    Singles   136        Doubles 389
Oct2012    Singles     80    Doubles 447
Nov2012    Singles     26        Doubles 263

Jan 2013    Singles     26        Doubles 272
Jun 2013    Singles     22        Doubles   58
even if he loses tomorrow
Jul 2013    Singles     18    Doubles    58

Prize Money (not including this Wimbledon):
2007-age 16 (born 11/13/1990): singles $318
2008-age 17: singles   $25,136, doubles $1,655
2009-age 18: singles   $39,643, doubles $1,206
2010-age 19: singles   $45,740, doubles $125
2011-age 20: singles   $61,448, doubles $2,881
2012-age 21: singles $469,585, doubles $2,681 (about $350,000 in Bercy)
2013-age 22: singles $374,256, doubles $128,430
And so far in reaching the semis at Wimbledon, $600,000
If he were to beat Murray, that would be another $600,000. And his ranking would go to 11 or 12
And if he were to win, that would be still another $1,200,000. And he would be ranked 9th in the world!

So when Jerzy and his coach Kim Tiilikainen decided to play qualifying for the Masters series event in Bercy last fall instead of going to another challenger, Jerzy’s life changed. When he won two qualifying matches against good players (Tursunov and Serra) and then beat 5 top 20 players in a row including his opponent in tomorrow’s match to reach the final, he doubled not just his winning for his year, but for his entire 5 1/2 year pro career. (Anytime you win 7 matches in a row against that level of competition, you should win a Grand Slam!) In the six months coming into Wimbledon, he has nearly matched that from a prize money perspective and with the endorsement and sponsorship deals that he must have signed, he’s undoubtedly made much more than that.

It remains to be seen whether or not he can maintain the level he has produced repeatedly over the last six months. I think he has the fundamental technique to move even further. No one knows how his body will hold up to the stress of the men’s tour. I only hope that the advisers around him are getting him the best possible training and guidance to build him up and help him cope. It’s not enough to just hit a few balls and go out and play anymore. Top players are investing in physios, nutritionists, trainers and sports psychologists to help them produce the best possible performance day in and day out. No more traveling and sleeping in your car!

But don’t let anyone say Jerzy didn’t put in enough time to play at this level. He’s new to the top tiers of the sport, but he put in 5 tough years traveling from satellites to futures to challengers and back before he made it in “The Show” as they say in major league baseball.

What about his chances with Murray?!
Undoubtedly, Murray is the better player now and should beat Jerzy most of the time. For Jerzy to win in best of five in front of the English crowd, he will have to play the absolute match of his life. Not that he has to do anything he hasn’t shown he is capable of, but he will have to be so mentally perfect, it almost defies credulity. But that’s where his years in the salt mines will serve him well. He’s shown immaturity and bad judgement repeatedly over the last six months, occasionally letting his emotions get the better of him. It almost cost him a key match against Devarrman in the second round of the Australian, but he was able to recover. It did cost him the fourth set against Meltzer in the round of 16. He got so pumped up when he broke ahead in that set that he lost the next four games. However, he recovered and refocused nicely in the fifth and didn’t show any of that lack of control when he broke ahead again. It will be paramount for Jerzy to maintain a steady focus for the long haul that Murray will certainly extract from him. At the same time, he will need the boost of positive emotional expression to get him through this marathon. It will not be a short match. It’s a tough tight rope to walk: if he stifles his personality too much, he will suffocate; but if he lets his adrenal glands run wild, he will be exhausted before the end of the 3rd set. There will certainly be some Polish fans to support him, but this will be hostile Davis Cup conditions for the most part, except for the polite reserve of the British crowd, especially at Wimbledon. Jerzy is on his own out there!

He’s amazed us all with his command of the drop shot, but if he overuses it against Murray, the swift Scot will make him pay dearly. He must pick his spots ever so wisely. He needs his drop shot to be spot on to neutralize some of Andy’s speed, but he must be careful. Jerzy needs to make a few more forays to the net; he can not count on winning extended exchanges from the baseline with Murray.

The serve is where Jerzy may have the edge. He’s got to keep the double faults to a minimum. He just can’t afford to give away many points. But while Andy also has a big serve when he chooses to use it, his average first serve speed is about 12 MPH slower than Jerzy’s (114 to 126). But Andy’s serve is certainly big enough to be effective. They served 68% and 69% first serves in their quarterfinal victories. Where Jerzy may have a significant edge is in the second serve speed: Jerzy in some 23 mph faster than Andy (108 to 85). If Murray drops his first serve percentage, that may be the opportunity the Janowicz needs to swing the match in his favor. It’s tough to get a second serve up out of the strike zone when your opponent is 6′ 8″ tall! This is one reason I think Jerzy has a chance; he’s definitely an underdog, but he has a good chance. He has had a chance to play on Center Court once already (against Almagro), but the occasion could overwhelm him; I hope not. I certainly see Janowicz as a better bet than Ladbrokes. They have Janowicz at 10/3 (bet 3 to win 13) and Murray at 2/9 (bet 9 to win 11). If I was in London, I think I would put 3 quid down on Jerzy.

It certainly is going to be worth getting up to watch. And they are the second match after 1 so they won’t get started much before about 8AM here in Los Angeles. The rest of you are on your own!

10sChiro

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Topics: British tennis news, Don Brosseau, grass court tennis, Jerzy Janowicz, Lukasz Kubot, Tennis News, Wimbledon Championships