Men’s Wimbledon warm Up – Mirnyi / Tecau Win

Written by: Staff on 22nd June 2013

Our offices experienced a long power outage overnight. This came as we were working on the Wimbledon preview. The time lost meant that we ended up having to shorten the preview somewhat.

****** EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ******

* Mahut cruises to ‘s-Hertogenbosch title

* Lopez gets his wish, wins first of two with Simon

****** TODAY’S MEN’S NEWS ******

Eastbourne

Singles – Final: F Lopez def. (2) G Simon 7-6(7-2) 6-7(5-7) 6-0

It was almost an epic. Three sets. Two hours and 48 minutes. But… well, you can see what happened in the final set. It wasn’t quite as bad as the score would imply, but still, Feliciano Lopez won more than 60% of the points in the third.

Before the match, Lopez had said that he placed more value on winning this title than on beating Simon next week at Wimbledon. So he gets his wish — and, we should point out, more than twice as many points as the win at Wimbledon would be worth, so mathematically, at least, he’s right. We show him rising to #32; too bad he wasn’t seeded at Wimbledon, since the formula would promote him higher still.

Whatever happens next week, he earns only his third career title, following Vienna 2004 and Johannesburg 2010. Interestingly, the three titles have been on three different surfaces. Lopez said he was glad to finally win a title on grass, which he considers his best surface.

Gilles Simon was going to be #17 win or lose, but even if he is entirely fit after this, one suspects Lopez got into his head at least a little….

‘s-Hertogenbosch

Singles – Final: (Q) N Mahut def. (2) S Wawrinka 6-3 6-4

Are we dreaming?

Given how much time we spent dealing with power problems last night, and the sleep we lost, that might seem the simplest explanation for this. After all, Nicolas Mahut came in ranked #240 and with no titles on his record. But we looked twice. Not only did Mahut win, he won pretty easily — he broke twice, was never broken himself, and won 56% of the points in the match.

But here is the really amazing statistic. Mahut came in with 198 ranking points. This win is worth 262. In other words, he increased his total by more than 125%! From #240 he will rise to around #125, and with lots of room to add points at Wimbledon.

According to the ATP, Mahut is the lowest-ranked winner of an ATP title since 2008, when then-#244 Kei Nishikori won Delray Beach. Making it an even better story is the fact that he was coming back from injury: “It’s amazing. I cannot believe I won today. I didn’t know if I was going to play again when I had some bad times with my knee. All my team helped me a lot. We worked hard and here I am with the trophy. It’s a good story.”

It’s a real blow for Stanislas Wawrinka. He was #10 win or lose, but this will make it harder for him to rise at Wimbledon even if you ignore the psychological effects of going down to a guy ranked 230 places below him.

Doubles – Final: (2) Mirnyi/Tecau def. Begemann/Emmrich 6-3 7-6(7-4)

There was enough rain on Saturday that this match ended up on an outside court. Had they known how quickly both finals would end, they might not have bothered…. It is only the second title for the new team of Mirnyi/Tecau; they also won Bucharest on clay. They haven’t been very impressive so far, but maybe they’re starting to work things out.

****** TODAY’S FEATURE ******

Men’s Look Forward: Wimbledon

Now the heat is really on Roger Federer.

It took Federer almost half a year to win his first title of 2013, and the delay cost him quite a bit in the rankings. But Wimbledon marks the single biggest thing he has to defend. It is perfectly possible that he could fall to #5 in July if he can’t pick up his recent results.

And it’s hard to imagine a much worse draw than the one he got. Oh, his first two rounds are trivial. And the first seed he faces is #30 Fabio Fognini, then #15 Nicolas Almagro or #24 Jerzy Janowicz. But then — he hit the jackpot. Or whatever is the bad inverse of a jackpot: He’s drawn to face #5 Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinal. Then he would face #2 Andy Murray in a rematch of last year’s final.

Top seed Novak Djokovic’s situation is the reverse: The worst possible opener (he starts against Florian Mayer, who just missed seeding and who likes grass). In the third round, he would take on #28 Jeremy Chardy, then #13 Tommy Haas or #19 Gilles Simon, then #7 Tomas Berdych (who, despite a past Wimbledon final, hasn’t done anything on grass lately), then #4 David Ferrer in the semifinal. No cakewalk, but he clearly has it better than Federer.

If the draw gods had been trying to help Andy Murray, they could hardly have improved on his first few rounds. His opening opponent Benjamin Becker likes grass, but not enough to be a threat. The first seed the hometown favorite would face is #32 Tommy Robredo, who has hardly even played on the stuff lately. #14 Janko Tipsarevic, a potential fourth round opponent, is in a real funk, and the other possibility, #20 Mikhail Youzhny, likes grass but tends to under-perform at big events. Then comes #6 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or #10 Marin Cilic, then Federer or Nadal.

#4 seed Ferrer isn’t getting much respect from the oddsmakers, but his draw is nothing to complain about. The first seed he would face is #26 Alexandr Dolgopolov, then #16 Philipp Kohlschreiber or #17 Milos Raonic, then #8 Juan Martin del Potro or #12 Kei Nishikori. Other than Kohlschreiber, few of those players have much in the way of grass credentials.

The meeting between Federer and #5 Nadal seems likely to come off; the first seed Nadal would face is #25 Benoit Paire, then #11 Stanislas Wawrinka or #18 John Isner. Or maybe Lleyton Hewitt, who opens against a tired Wawrinka.

#6 Tsonga will likely face Ernests Gulbis in round two, then upset artist Julien Benneteau, or Fernando Verdasco, or grass-loving Xavier Malisse. Then comes #11 Marin Cilic (or #22 Juan Monaco, but Monaco isn’t much threat on grass). Tsonga will have his work cut out in reaching that meeting with Murray.

#7 Tomas Berdych has to open against Martin Klizan, one of the top unseeded players but one who is struggling right now. In the third round, he’s likely to face #27 Kevin Anderson, then #9 Richard Gasquet or #21 Sam Querrey. Then Djokovic. He’s going to have to have one of his better grass years to do real damage in this draw.

So, probably, will #8 Juan Martin del Potro, although his draw isn’t bad at all — the first seed he would face is #29 Grigor Dimitrov, then #12 Kei Nishikori or #23 Andreas Seppi, then Ferrer.

If we want to look at particularly noteworthy first round matches, the most obvious one of all is the rematch of the ‘s-Hertogenbosch final, Lopez versus Simon. Djokovic’s opener against Florian Mayer is fascinating, because Djokovic beat Mayer in the quarterfinal last year. Tomic versus Querrey is also intriguing. It’s fascinating to see Olivier Rochus back in a main draw, even if as a Lucky Loser; he will open against Anderson. Seppi is likely to face Michael Llodra in round two; that sound like quite a match on grasss. Hewitt versus Wawrinka could be an epic contest indeed. Fognini starts against Jurgen Melzer, who used to be good on grass but hasn’t done much lately. Tsonga versus Gulbis and Benneteau versus Malisse in the second round clearly have high potential. Cilic has to open against Marcos Baghdatis, who has always liked grass. Tipsarevic’s opener is against his countryman Viktor Troicki, who currently seems to be in better form than Tipsarevic. And Tommy Robredo could face Nicolas Mahut in round two.

The Rankings

Roger Federer of course won Wimbledon last year, adding not only to his record for Slam titles but also to his record for weeks atop the rankings. Andy Murray was the finalist. Novak Djokovic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga were semifinalists; the quarterfinalists were Florian Mayer, Mikhail Youzhny, David Ferrer, and Philipp Kohlschreiber. You may also remember the astounding Round of 16 run of Brian Baker — who still isn’t back. Neither is Mardy Fish, who also made the fourth round.

The fact that Djokovic has points to defend doesn’t matter; he will stay #1. The fact that Federer has a pile of points to defend…. matters a lot. The Top Ten in safe points looks like this:

1..(1) Djokovic……….11120

2..(2) Murray………….7370

3..(4) Ferrer………….6870

4..(5) Nadal…………..6860

5..(3) Federer…………5750

6..(6) Berdych…………4515

7..(8) Del Potro……….3790

8..(7) Tsonga………….3445

9..(9) Gasquet…………2965

10.(10) Wawrinka………..2915

Thus we have three big questions: Who will be #2, who will be the top Spaniard, and how low will Federer go? Federer is more than 1100 points behind Ferrer and Nadal, and a final is worth 1200, so in all likelihood Federer will have to defend his title to stay above #5. He could even fall behind Berdych, if Berdych wins Wimbledon, but that’s obviously a stretch…. As between Ferrer and Nadal, whichever lasts longer will likely be #3. Or possibly #2; it would take at least a semifinal for either of them to pass Murray, but it could happen.

Berdych, del Potro, and Tsonga should be safe in the Top Ten. Gasquet and Wawrinka are at greater risk — but the next player down, Tommy Haas, is about 500 points off the pace. So Gasquet and Wawrinka are likely to retain the #9 and #10 places; the only question is order. Odds are that the one who lasts longer will be #9.

Philipp Kohlschreiber is out of the Top Twenty in safe points. Mikhail Youzhny is well below the Top Thirty. Florian Mayer is in danger of losing his Top Fifty spot.

KEYWORDS: Preview Wimbledon Men

******** THIS WEEK IN TENNIS ********

THIS WEEK ON THE ATP WORLD TOUR:

Eastbourne (250/Grass). Defending Champion: Andy Roddick

‘s-Hertogenbosch (250/Grass). Defending Champion: David Ferrer

NEXT WEEK ON THE ATP WORLD TOUR:

Wimbledon (Slam/Grass). Defending Champion: Roger Federer

******** STATS AND FACTS ********

RANKINGS

Estimated ATP World Tour Rankings

As of June 22, 2013

Rank &

Prior…Player………..Points

1..(1) Djokovic……….11830

2..(2) Murray………….8560

3..(3) Federer…………7740

4..(4) Ferrer………….7220

5..(5) Nadal…………..6895

6..(6) Berdych…………4515

7..(7) Tsonga………….4155

8..(8) Del Potro……….3960

9..(9) Gasquet…………3135

10.(10) Wawrinka………..2915

11.(11) Nishikori……….2495

12.(12) Cilic…………..2470

13.(13) Haas……………2425

14.(14) Tipsarevic………2390

15.(15) Raonic………….2225

16.(16) Almagro…………2195

17.(17) Simon…………..2090

18.(18) Kohlschreiber……1885

19.(19) Querrey…………1810

20.(20) Monaco………….1740

21.(21) Isner…………..1735

22.(22) Janowicz………..1549

23.(23) Anderson………..1510

24.(24) Dolgopolov………1500

25.(27) Chardy………….1441

26.(28) Youzhny…………1415

27.(25) Paire…………..1380

28.(26) Seppi…………..1380

29.(29) Robredo…………1355

30.(30) Fognini…………1345

**DRAWS

Eastbourne — Week of May 17

WINNER: Feliciano Lopez

……………..QF…………….SF……..F

1 Raonic (WC)….Dodig………….Dodig

8 Fognini……..(8)Fognini

4 Monaco………Lopez………….Lopez…..Lopez

6 Dolgopolov…..Verdasco

7 Seppi……….(7)Seppi……….Seppi

3 Kohlschreiber..Stepanek

5 Anderson…….Tomic

2 Simon……….(2)Simon……….Simon…..Simon

STATUS OF SEEDS:

1 Raonic (WC)……lost 2R (Dodig)

2 Simon…………lost F (Lopez)

3 Kohlschreiber….lost 2R (Stepanek)

4 Monaco………..lost 2R (Lopez)

5 Anderson………lost 1R (Benneteau)

6 Dolgopolov…….lost 1R (Verdasco)

7 Seppi…………lost SF (Simon)

8 Fognini……….lost QF (Dodig)

‘s-Hertogenbosch — Week of May 17

WINNER: Nicolas Mahut

……………..QF…………….SF………….F

1 Ferrer………Malisse………..Malisse

6 Baghdatis……Bautista Agut

3 Isner……….Donskoy

8 Gimeno-Traver..Mahut(Q)……….Mahut……….Mahut

7 Hanescu……..Garcia-Lopez……Garcia-Lopez

4 Paire……….Hernych(Q)

5 Chardy………(5)Chardy

2 Wawrinka…….(2)Wawrinka…….Wawrinka…….Wawrinka

STATUS OF SEEDS:

1 Ferrer…………lost 1R (Malisse)

2 Wawrinka……….lost F (Mahut)

3 Isner………….lost 1R (Donskoy)

4 Paire………….lost 1R (Llodra)

5 Chardy…………lost QF (Wawrinka)

6 Baghdatis………lost 1R (Berlocq)

7 Hanescu………..lost 1R (Brands)

8 Gimeno-Traver…..lost 1R (Kuznetsov)

Wimbledon — Week of May 24

1 Djokovic

F Mayer

Reynolds (Q)

Johnson (WC)

Kavcic

Struff (Q)

Harrison

28 Chardy

19 Simon

F Lopez

Berankis

Mathieu

Odesnik (Q)

Wang (Q)

Tursunov

13 Haas

9 Gasquet

Granollers

Haider-Maurer

Soeda (Q)

Blake

de Bakker

Tomic

21 Querrey

27 Anderson

O Rochus (LL)

Petzschner

Przysiezny (Q)

Brands

Gimeno-Traver

Klizan

7 Berdych

4 Ferrer

Alund

Bautista Agut

Gabashvili (Q)

Zeballos

Giraldo

Elias

26 Dolgopolov

17 Raonic

Berlocq

Kuznetsov (Q)

Sijsling

Duckworth (Q)

Kudla (Q)

Dodig

16 Kohlschreiber

12 Nishikori

Ebden (WC)

Mayer

Bedene

Llodra

Nieminen

Istomin

23 Seppi

29 Dimitrov

Bolelli

Zemlja

Russell

Pella

Levine

Ramos

8 Del Potro

5 Nadal

Darcis

Kubot

Andreev

Robert (Q)

Falla

Ungur

25 Paire

18 Isner

Donskoy

Andujar

Mannarino

Brown (Q)

Garcia-Lopez

Hewitt

11 Wawrinka

15 Almagro

Zopp

Matosevic

Rufin

Stepanek

Reid (Q)

Edmund (WC)

24 Janowicz

30 Fognini

Melzer

Reister (Q)

Rosol

Dutra Silva

Stakhovsky

Hanescu

3 Federer

6 Tsonga

Goffin

Roger-Vasselin

Gulbis

Verdasco

Malisse

Kamke

31 Benneteau

22 Monaco

Knittel (Q)

Lacko

Ram

De Schepper

Lorenzi

Baghdatis

10 Cilic

14 Tipsarevic

Troicki

Kuznetsov

Montanes

Gicquel (Q)

Pospisil

Haase

20 Youzhny

32 Robredo

Bogomolov

Mahut (WC)

Hajek

Ward (WC)

Becker

2 Murray

******** SCORES ********

SATURDAY

Eastbourne

Singles – Final

F Lopez def. (2) G Simon 7-6(7-2) 6-7(5-7) 6-0

‘s-Hertogenbosch

Singles – Final:

(Q) N Mahut def. (2) S Wawrinka 6-3 6-4

Doubles – Final

(2) Mirnyi/Tecau def. Begemann/Emmrich 6-3 7-6(7-4)