Women’s Tennis: A Look Forward into the French Open (5/24)

Written by: Staff on 24th May 2013

Women's Tennis: A Look Forward into the French Open (5/24)

epa03670974 Maria Kirilenko of Russia returns the ball to Dominika Cibulkova of Slovakia during the Tennis Federation Cup semi final match between Russia and Slovakia in Moscow, Russia, 21 April 2013. EPA/MAXIM SHIPENKOV |

Women’s Look Forward: Roland Garros

Right now, betting against Serena Williams at Roland Garros probably feels almost as strange as betting against Rafael Nadal. After all, she had about as spectacular a lead-up as it’s possible to have, winning not only Madrid and Rome but also Charleston. And yet, she has only once won Roland Garros. Surely she is the favorite as well as the #1 seed… but it’s not quite a lock. #2 Maria Sharapova, after all, won Stuttgart, and won Roland Garros last year, and had only actual one clay loss in 2013.

#3 Victoria Azarenka probably isn’t as much of a threat; she doesn’t like the surface much. And #4 Agnieszka Radwanska is spinning her wheels lately. The biggest threat to the Big Two right now are probably the next two players down, #5 Sara Errani, last year’s finalist, who would meet Radwanska in the quarterfinal and Serena in the semifinal, and past champion and #6 seed Li Na, drawn to face Azarenka in the quarterfinal and Sharapova in the semifinal. Our other quarterfinals would pit #7 Petra Kvitova against Sharapova and #8 Angelique Kerber against Serena. Given how much Kvitova and Kerber are struggling, that doesn’t seem very promising.

In the round of sixteen, it will be a tired #15 Roberta Vinci against Serena, a struggling #10 Caroline Wozniacki against Kerber, #14 Ana Ivanovic against Radwanska, #11 Nadia Petrova (who loves clay but who doesn’t seem to be showing it this year) against Errani, #12 Maria Kirilenko against Li, #13 Marion Bartoli (very messed up) against Azarenka, #9 Samantha Stosur (who probably should be seeded higher, given her record here) against Kvitova, and #16 Dominika Cibulkova against Sharapova.

In the third round, it’s Serena against #26 Sorana Cirstea, #19 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova versus Vinci, Wozniacki against #22 Ekaterina Makarova (which looks like an upset — except that Makarova might be upset by Svetlana Kuznetsova in round one), #29 Varvara Lepchenko against Kerber, Radwanska against #30 Venus Williams (who opens against Urszula Radwanska — it’s a very sisters-ey part of the draw), Ivanovic versus #24 Julia Goerges, Petrova against red-hot #20 Carla Suarez Navarro, Errani against #32 Sabine Lisicki, Li versus #27 Yaroslava Shvedova, Kirilenko against #23 Klara Zakopalova, Bartoli versus #21 Kirsten Flipkens, Azarenka facing #31 Alize Cornet, Kvitova taking on her countrywoman #25 Lucie Safarova, Stosur against #18 Jelena Jankovic, Cibulkova versus #17 Sloane Stephens, and Sharapova taking on #28 Tamira Paszek.

There are some pretty good early matches, too — such as the two first rounders we already mentioned, Kuznetsova against Makarova and Venus versus Urszula. Pavlyuchenkova could play Petra Cetkovska, who was Top Thirty before getting hurt, in round two. Lepchenko’s second round is against clay-loving Romina Oprandi. Kerber opens against Mona Barthel, who just missed seeding. Suarez Navarro starts against Simona Halep, who did very well at Rome but then got hurt. Li will likely face two Spanish clay experts, Anabel Medina Garrigues and Lourdes Dominguez Lino. Zakopalova starts against Kaia Kanepi, who did tremendous damage last year but is tired. Flipkens has a path that runs through Flavia Pennetta and then former champion Francesa Schiavone. Azarenka opens against Elena Vesnina. And Kvitova’s second opponent is Peng Shuai.

The Rankings

Don’t expect change at the top. That’s not only because Serena has a big lead, it’s because #2 Sharapova was last year’s champion. Sara Errani was the out-of-the-blue finalist; Samantha Stosur and Petra Kvitova were semifinalists. Dominika Cibulkova, Angelique Kerber, Yaroslava Shvedova, and Kaia Kanepi were the quarterfinalists. Of the rest of the Top Ten, Victoria Azarenka and Li Na made the Round of Sixteen, Agnieszka Radwanska and Caroline Wozniacki lost third round, and Serena lost her opener.

We can’t help but think how much that differs from the men, where all the top players were around in the second week.

But it means that Serena can’t be passed. The real contest is for #2 — and Azarenka leads it. By almost a thousand points. Sharapova needs at least a semifinal, and probably a final or better, to keep the #2 spot.

Sharapova can at least count on staying #3. Agnieszka Radwanska is likely but not certain to stay #4; she has about a thousand point lead on Li Na in safe points. Sara Errani, #5 coming in, is around #9 in safe points. Kvitova and Kerber are down there too, so Li Na has a very good shot at returning to #5. Caroline Wozniacki looks pretty safe in the Top Ten, but that’s mostly because Stosur has so much to defend; a lot of players — Stosur, Petrova, Kirilenko, and others — are contending for the last Top Ten spot.

Cibulkova’s Top Twenty ranking is in a lot of danger, and Shvedova will probably fall out of the Top Thirty. Kanepi, who has already fallen out of the Top Fifty once this year, is likely to see it happen again.