Men’s Tennis: A Look Forward into the French Open (5/24)

Written by: Staff on 24th May 2013

Men's Tennis: A Look Forward into the French Open (5/24)

epa03701989 Italian tennis player Fabio Fognini returns to Rafael Nadal of Spain in their match at the Italian Open tennis tournament at the Foro Italico in Rome, Italy, 15 May 2013. EPA/ETTORE FERRARI |

Men’s Look Forward: Roland Garros

Now comes the real test for Rafael Nadal. Can those knees of his stand up to seven best-of-five matches? The actual burden is about the same as the Madrid-Rome combination (21 sets minimum to win in Paris, 20 to win the two Masters) — but it’s more concentrated on particular days.

And, of course, he is “only” the #3 seed. A disadvantage? That probably doesn’t matter much. And he does have the advantage of an attenuated draw. No Andy Murray (not that that is a big deal on clay). No Juan Martin del Potro (which matters a lot more). Roger Federer has been very off this year. Novak Djokovic won Monte Carlo but has been a non-factor since. And although David Ferrer probably has the heart to win the slowest Slam, and Tomas Berdych certainly has the game, who else combines both of them?

It’s hard to imagine anyone calling it a fair draw. #1 seed Djokovic and #3 Nadal are in the same half, with #2 Federer and #4 Ferrer to face off in the other semifinal. Which makes it fairly likely that one or the other of the latter pair will gain points, although Ferrer has to deal with #5 Berdych in the quarterfinal. Federer goes against #6 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Nadal has to deal with #7 Richard Gasquet, and Djokovic was gifted with his countryman, #8 Janko Tipsarevic. Tipsarevic could never deal with Djokovic at his best, and right now, Tipsarevic is in an awful funk anyway.

In the fourth round, Djokovic is due to take on #16 Philipp Kohlschreiber. Tipsarevic’s opponent is #12 Tommy Haas — who, if he is healthy, looks like a threat to produce an upset. Nadal probably isn’t too worried about facing #13 Kei Nishikori on clay. Gasquet, however, has to face #9 Stanislas Wawrinka, who — if he is healthy — has been having a great clay season. Berdych’s opponent would be #11 Nicolas Almagro, who should probably be seeded higher on clay. Ferrer’s opponent is #14 Milos Raonic. Tsonga will be up against #10 Marin Cilic. And Federer is against #15 Gilles Simon.

Third round, it’s Djokovic versus #26 Grigor Dimitrov, Kohlschreiber taking on #22 Alexandr Dolgopolov, Haas against #19 John Isner, Tipsarevic against #29 Mikhail Youzhny, Nadal against #27 Fabio Fognini, Nishikori taking on red-hot #24 Benoit Paire, Wawrinka against #21 Jerzy Janowicz, Gasquet against #28 Florian Mayer, Berdych taking on #32 Tommy Robredo, Almagro facing #20 Andreas Seppi, Raonic against #23 Kevin Anderson (who has had a pretty good clay season), Ferrer against #31 Marcel Granollers, Tsonga against his countryman, #25 Jeremy Chardy, Cilic facing a tired but strong-looking #17 Juan Monaco, Simon versus #18 Sam Querrey, and Federer (who faces qualifiers in the first two rounds) facing #30 Julien Benneteau.

Quite the early draw for Federer. Not everyone is so lucky. Djokovic opens against last year’s big surprise David Goffin (who, hoever, has gone nowhere). Youzhny’s first match is against Pablo Andujar, who is in very good form. Tipsarevic could face Fernando Verdasco in round two. Nadal might face Martin Klizan, who just missed seeding. Fognini could face another near-seed, Lukas Rosol. Mayer might face Nikolay Davydenko in round two. Berdych’s path runs through suddenly-restored Gael Monfils and then Ernests Gulbis. And Granollers opens against Feliciano Lopez, although the surface is not good for Lopez at all.

The Rankings

It’s going to stay lonely at the top. Even now, Novak Djokovic is safe at #1. He’s just too far ahead of the field. The big question is, who will be #2? Murray or Federer? And who will be #4? Nadal? Ferrer? It probably comes down to those two.

Nadal was of course last year’s champion. Djokovic was the finalist. The semifinalists were Roger Federer and David Ferrer. Reaching the quarterfinal were Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Juan Martin del Potro, Andy Murray, and Nicolas Almagro. The other Top Ten players, Tomas Berdych, Stanislas Wawrinka, and Richard Gasquet, all lost in the Round of Sixteen.

Djokovic comes in with a lead of about 3500 points on Murray, and Murray can’t add, so Djokovic is safe. Murray leads Federer by 670, with Federer having more to defend. So Federer has to make the final to pass Murray.

Nadal has almost no lead on Ferrer; in safe points, Ferrer is more than a thousand points ahead. Indeed, Nadal’s lead in safe points over Berdych is only a few hundred. Nadal almost certainly will have to repeat to stay #4 — and if by some wild chance he faces Ferrer in the final, then Ferrer is #4. Indeed, Ferrer could hit #3 with a title if Federer does badly.

Ferrer’s lead over Berdych is large enough that he appears effectively sure to stay Top Five. Berdych might have had to worry about del Potro had del Potro played; not now. So Berdych looks pretty safe at #6. Del Potro and Tsonga should be safe in the Top Ten — probably in the Top Eight. Richard Gasquet is likely but not certain to stay Top Ten. The last spot, though, is wide open; Wawrinka seems unlikely to hold it, so Marin Cilic or someone else might slip in. Probably not Almagro, though, he could well fall out of the Top Fifteen. And Janko Tipsarevic’s form has been terrible lately. Tommy Haas might be the dark horse candidate for that spot.

If we had to pick the one guy most likely to take a big fall, though, how about David Goffin? He’s starting to look as if he may not be Top Hundred much longer.