Today’s Men’s Feature (3/19) – Miami

Written by: Staff on 19th March 2013

Today's Men's Feature (3/19) - Miami

epa03583741 Richard Gasquet from France in action against Marcos Baghdatis from Cyprus during their second round match of the ATP ABN AMRO tennis tournament in Rotterdam, Netherlands, 14 February 2013. Baghdatis won 6-4 and 6-4. EPA/KOEN SUYK |

Men’s Look Forward: Miami

This is supposed to be a mandatory event. And yet, somehow, the big question seemed to be who would show up. Roger Federer had announced earlier that he probably wouldn’t attend. And Rafael Nadal made withdrawal noises as he entered the Indian Wells final.

They’re both out. So is Stanislas Wawrinka — evidently the Swiss aren’t neutral about Miami! Mardy Fish, too, decided he wasn’t ready (bad news, since he’s defending quarterfinalist point!). Throw in Radek Stepanek and you have five of the Top Fifty who will miss the year’s third mandatory event.

The chief beneficiaries of that are Andy Murray, who in Federer’s absence becomes the #2 seed behind Novak Djokovic, and Tomas Berdych, who gets the #4 seed behind Djokovic, Murray, and David Ferrer.

Djokovic himself arguably benefits, too, because his last three rounds run through #7 Janko Tipsarevic (whom he can surely handle), Ferrer, and Murray. Ferrer’s draw is #5 Juan Martin del Potro, Djokovic, and Murray. Berdych has to deal with #8 Richard Gasquet, Murray, and Djokovic. Murray’s draw is #6 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Berdych, and Djokovic. It really does feel as if Djokovic has the best of it.

In the Round of Sixteen, it’s Djokovic vs. #15 Tommy Haas, Tipsarevic vs. #11 Gilles Simon, Ferrer vs. #13 Kei Nishikori, del Potro vs. #12 Juan Monaco, Gasquet vs. #10 Nicolas Almagro, Berdych vs. #14 Milos Raonic, Tsonga vs. #9 Marin Cilic, and Murray vs. #16 Andreas Seppi. Third round matches pit Djokovic against #30 Lopez, Haas against #18 Alexandr Dolgopolov, Simon against #23 Florian Mayer, Tipsarevic against #26 Kevin Anderson, Ferrer against #32 Fabio Fognini, Nishikori against #22 Jeremy Chardy, Monaco against #24 Julien Benneteau, del Potro against #31 Marcel Granollers, Gasquet against #28 Mikhail Youzhny, Almagro against #18 Philipp Kohlschreiber, Raonic against #17 Sam Querrey (America’s new #1, so that should be very interesting indeed), Berdych against #25 Fernando Verdasco (who has really been struggling), Tsonga against #27 Martin Klizan (another guy who has struggled lately), Cilic against #20 John Isner (still another player who doesn’t seem to be his usual self), Seppi against #21 Jerzy Janowicz, and Murray against #28 Grigor Dimitrov.

Unseeded players whose names stand out include Nikolay Davydenko, who could face Dolgopolov in round two; Lleyton Hewitt, who needed a wildcard but who could face Simon in the second round; Benoit Paire, who faces Michael Llodra for the right to take on Fognini; Ryan Harrison, who will face James Blake for the chance to face Benneteau; struggling Jurgen Melzer, who might face Granollers; Viktor Troicki, who will have to face Tsonga if he is to break his slump; David Nalbandian, who faces Jarkko Nieminen for the right to face Klizan; and Bernard Tomic, who is likely to be Murray’s first opponent.

The Rankings

For once, Novak Djokovic could lose some ground — although not enough to really matter. He was last year’s Miami champion. Andy Murray was the finalist. Juan Monaco was a shock semifinalist; Rafael Nadal was a non-shock semifinalist. David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Janko Tipsarevic, and Mardy Fish made the quarterfinals. Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych lost in the third round; Juan Martin del Potro and Richard Gasquet in the fourth.

That means that Djokovic is going to remain #1, and by more than 3000 points. #2 is just barely in play. Andy Murray can take the spot — but only with a title. Otherwise, Roger Federer will stay at #2. Murray is assured at least the #3 spot. Because Nadal loses points, David Ferrer will regain the #4 spot, with Nadal returning to #5. At least he is safe at #5; Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin del Potro — who once again will be contesting the #6 ranking — are too far behind to catch him. Berdych and Del Potro cannot fall below #7. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will stay #8 no matter what happens. The last two spots in the Top Ten currently belong to Tipsarevic and Gasquet, and they are likely to stay here (Marin Cilic, #11 in safe points, is 350 points back), but Tipsarevic and Gasquet are close enough (40 points apart) that the one who lasts longer will likely be #9.

Juan Monaco is likely to lose his Top Fifteen spot, with Milos Raonic the player most likely to replace him. We may not see any new names in the Top Twenty. There is a lot of room for movement around the bottom of the Top Thirty. It appears Mardy FIsh will lose his Top Forty spot.