Women’s Look Forward: Australian Open

Written by: Staff on 12th January 2013

Women's Look Forward: Australian Open

epa03531662 Australian Open defending women's singles champion Victoria Azarenka of Belarus during a practice session for the 2013 Australia Open Grand Slam tennis tournament, in Melbourne, Australia, 12 January, 2013. Play starts on 14 January 2013. EPA/BARBARA WALTON |

We aren’t going to spend any time analyzing the draw this week. If you’re sophisticated enough to get this newsletter, you’re sophisticated enough to visit the Australian Open preview sites. We will simply note that the top 32 women are all in the initial draw.

We do have some pretty interesting early round matches. #1 seed and defending champion Victoria Azarenka opens against Monica Niculescu, who is playing very well. #31 Urszula Radwanska opens against Jamie Hampton, who is also playing well, and then Sofia Arvidsson, who didn’t miss seeding by much. #21 Varvara Lepchenko’s second round match would be against Elena Vesnina, who just won her first career title. #10 Caroline Wozniacki, who of course is still seeking her first Slam and who hasn’t looked at all good this year, has to start against Sabine Lisicki. #26 Su-Wei Hsieh, who hasn’t been very strong in 2013, would face Svetlana Kuznetsova in round two. #7 Sara Errani will likely face two of the the four top unseeded players! — she opens against Carla Suarez Navarro, then Christina McHale. #20 Yanina Wickmayer starts against Jarmila Gajdosova, who seems to be rediscovering her game. #14 Maria Kirilenko is likely to face Peng Shuai, the top unseeded player, in round two. #8 Petra Kvitova opens against Francesca Schiavone — hard to believe she’s unseeded.

That’s a tough top half. The bottom half is much weaker in terms of unseeded players. Still, struggling #9 Samantha Stosur will likely face Zheng Jie in the second round — and Zheng already beat her once this year. Ana Ivanovic’s second round match is against Daniela Hantuchova, although Hantuchova is in poor form and falling fast.

But that isn’t why you read this publication, so let’s get to the stuff we know best, which is…

The Rankings

Victoria Azarenka of course made her big push for #1 here last year; she is the defending champion. Maria Sharapova was the finalist. Kim Clijsters and Petra Kvitova were semifinalists; Clijsters naturally is not back and Kvitova seems almost as far gone. Caroline Wozniacki, Agnieszka Radwanska, Ekaterina Makarova, and Sara Errani made the quarterfinal. Losing in the Round of Sixteen were Jelena Jankovic, Li Na, Iveta Benesova (who isn’t back), Julia Goerges, Serena Williams, Sabine Lisicki, Zheng Jie, and Ana Ivanovic. Angelique Kerber lost in the third round, as did Marion Bartoli; Samantha Stosur lost her opener (to Sorana Cirstea).

That means that Serena Williams goes into the Australian Open #1 in safe points — and not by a little, either; by a lot. Our rough cut shows the Top Ten in safe points as follows:

1..(3) SWILLIAMS ……… 9475

2..(2) SHARAPOVA ……… 8650

3..(1) AZARENKA ………..8330

4..(4) ARADWANSKA ………7255

5..(5) KERBER ………….5420

6..(6) LI ……………..4860

7..(7) ERRANI ………….4605

8..(8) KVITOVA ……….. 4190

9..(9) STOSUR ………….4135

10.(11) BARTOLI ……….. 3585

Note Serena’s more than 800 point lead on Sharapova, and more than 1100 point lead on Azarenka. That means that, even if Serena doesn’t play, Sharapova needs a semifinal and Azarenka a final to stay ahead of Serena. If Serena holds seed and makes the semifinal (where she would potentially meet Azarenka), Serena is assured at least the #2 ranking, because she would be ahead of Azarenka even if Azarenka defends the title. Sharapova would need a title to be #1 if Serena makes the semifinal. If Serena makes the final, she is #1 no matter what Sharapova does.

We won’t cover all the possible cases, because it’s so complicated when we have three players contending for the top spot. But the advantage is definitely with Serena.

It is at least theoretically possible that Agnieszka Radwanska could rise to #2. She can’t make it to #1. And she is far enough behind Azarenka and Sharapova that we would guess she won’t rise at all. She isn’t likely to fall below #4, though. Only Kerber can catch her, and only with a title, and only if Radwanska loses before the Round of Sixteen.

Kerber is likely to stay Top Five, but Li could perhaps pass her with a semifinal. Errani might do it with a semifinal also, although a final seems more likely. Kvitova would likely need a title.

Serena, Sharapova, Azarenka, Radwanska, Kerber, Li, and Errani are sure to stay Top Ten, and will almost certainly be in the Top Eight. The #8 spot is pretty closely contested — Kvitova and Stosur are effectively tied. They aren’t quite assured of both being Top Ten, but it’s almost certain.

The final Top Ten spot is more interesting. Bartoli leads in safe points, and by a pretty fair margin, but Wozniacki and Petrova have decent chances, and Cibulkova is also sort of in the running.

There is a very wide gap between #16 and #17, so the Top Fifteen won’t change much. There are three contenders for the last two spots: Ivanovic, Vinci, and Kirilenko.

Makarova is likely out of the Top Twenty (she’s around #30 in safe points), with Zakopalova, Wickmayer, Venus Williams, and perhaps Hsieh the leading candidates to replace her.

Lisicki and Zheng are in danger of losing their Top Fifty places. Benesova is already out of the Top Hundred; she will end up well below #150.

©Daily tennis News Wire

Topics: Australian Open, Maria Sharapova, Serena Williams, Sports, Tennis News, Victoria Azarenka, Wta