Men’s Look Forward: Australian Open

Written by: Staff on 12th January 2013

Men's Look Forward: Australian Open |

It’s a tough tournament for Americans. There are three potential Australian Open seeds missing, and two of them — John Isner and Mardy Fish — are from the United States.

Of course, the player whose absence everyone is noticing is Rafael Nadal. Once again we face the standard problem, at a big event, of “Who gets Andy Murray?” This time, it’s Roger Federer who has Murray in his half; Novak Djokovic will get to face David Ferrer in the semifinal. Or maybe Janko Tipsarevic. It could hardly be better for Djokovic. His quarterfinal, against Tomas Berdych, is tougher — but Federer’s, against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, is no joke either.

Indeed it’s all tough for Federer, who has to open against Benoit Paire, then probably Nikolay Davydenko, then Martin Klizan or Bernard Tomic. To be sure, Djokovic’s path — against Paul-Henri Mathieu, Ryan Harrison, and Radek Stepanek or Viktor Troicki or Feliciano Lopez — is tough also. Indeed, it almost seems as if the draw gods were doing their best to make the top sees suffer.

Several other seeds face tricky situations. #11 Juan Monaco will face Kevin Anderson in round two. #22 Fernando Verdasco opens against David Goffin. #8 Tipsarevic will have to take on Lleyton Hewitt in his opener. #30 Marcel Granollers will face Jeremy Chardy in round two…#21 Andreas Seppi takes on Denis Istomin in that round. #18 Alexandr Dolgopolov opens against Gael Monfils. Even #3 Murray has to open against Robin Haase. And #7 Tsonga has to open against his countryman Michael Llodra, whose ranking is in the pits but whose game is very tricky. So we could have a fair number of upsets. Which could produce some real surprises in…

The Rankings

Novak Djokovic of course won the Australian Open last year. Rafael Nadal was the finalist, with Murray and Federer the semifinalists. (They don’t call it a Big Four for nothing!) Indeed, seven of the current Top Eight made the quarterfinal last year; our four 2012 quarterfinalists were Ferrer, Berdych, del Potro, and Nishikori. And the other Top Eight player, Tsonga, made it to the Round of Sixteen, along with Gasquet, Almagro, Kohlschreiber, Lopez, Hewitt, Kukushkin, and Tomic.

Kukushkin (who opens against Jurgen Melzer) is surely toast, and Hewitt will need to beat Tipsarevic to stay Top Hundred.

At the top… the #1 ranking is in play. Just barely. Djokovic leads Federer by almost 1400 points. So Federer’s only chance at #1 is to win Melbourne and hope Djokovic loses by the quarterfinal. And Djokovic’s route is Mathieu, Harrison, Stepanek/Troicki/Lopez, Querrey/Wawrinka. What odds?

Andy Murray will probably be #3. He cannot possibly move up. It is just barely possible that he could fall. He has a bit more than a thousand point lead on David Ferrer. So Ferrer could possibly pass him with a final, if Murray loses early, or with a title, if Murray loses by the semifinal. Not likely, obviously.

Ferrer is certain to pass Rafael Nadal. That doesn’t quite guarantee him the #4 ranking, but he’ll get it unless Tomas Berdych wins the Australian Open and Ferrer loses in the first three rounds.

That leaves Nadal no better than #5, and it could be lower. Berdych could pass him with a final; del Potro could pass him with a title. But Berdych and del Potro are probably slugging it out for #6 and #7. They’re 200 points apart, so del Potro needs at least a quarterfinal to pass Berdych.

There is a very big gap between #7 del Potro and #8 Tsonga, but not much of a gap at all between Tsonga and #9 Tipsarevic, so they could swap rankings.

Djokovic, Federer, Murray, Ferrer, Nadal, Berdych, and del Potro are sure to be Top Ten, and we’d say Tsonga and Tipsarevic are safe in practice, The current #10 is Richard Gasquet, but his lead on Juan Monaco is only about 100 points; he has a 200 point lead on Nicolas Almagro, and Marin Cilic is 300 points back. So we have a genuine four-way race for the #10 spot.

John Isner will lose at least one ranking spot, and probably more; he is likely to fall out of the Top Fifteen. Gilles Simon is the player most likely to replace him. The Top Twenty may not change much; Kei Nishikori could fall out, with Tommy Haas the leading candidate to take his spot. We will surely see new faces in the Top Thirty, but amazingly enough, there is no hint as to which players; it appears the Top Thirty in safe points is the same as the Top Thirty coming in.

©Daily Tennis News Wire

Topics: Andy Murray, Australian Open, John Isner, Mardy Fish, Mishikori, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Sports, Tennis News, Tipsarevic

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KevinFaircloth1 says:

January 12, 2013 at 4:53 pm

RT @10sBalls_com: Men’s Look Forward: Australian Open: It’s a tough tournament for Americans. There are three potential A… http://t.co …