Strong Medicine
So — were the Slams really the biggest events of 2012?
In money, of course, they were. In points, too. Also in length and prestige. But what about field strength?
There is no universally agreed measure of field strength, but we have a couple that we use. One is the “Top Four” strength method, which consists of taking the rankings of the top four players. We take twice the ranking of the #1 and #2 players in the field, plus the rankings of #3 and #4. The lower the number, the stronger the event; the minimum is 13. For this ranking, we decided to look not only at the WTA events but also at every Challenger of $50K or greater. It turns out that there were 116 such in the last year. The list below sorts them in descending order of strength.
1. Australian Open. Strength: 13. Winner: Azarenka
1. Indian Wells. Strength: 13. Winner: Azarenka
1. Miami. Strength: 13. Winner: A. Radwanska
1. Stuttgart. Strength: 13. Winner: Sharapova
1. Madrid. Strength: 13. Winner: S. Williams
1. Rome. Strength: 13. Winner: Sharapova
1. Roland Garros. Strength: 13. Winner: Sharapova
1. Wimbledon. Strength: 13.0. Winner: S. Williams
1. Olympics. Strength: 13. Winner: S. Williams
1. U. S. Open. Strength: 13. Winner: S. Williams
1. Istanbul. Strength: 13. Winner: S. Williams
12. Sydney. Strength: 14. Winner: Azarenka
13. Pan Pacific. Strength: 15. Winner: Petrova
13. Beijing. Strength: 15. Winner: Azarenka
15. Canadian Open. Strength: 19. Winner: Kvitova
16. Doha. Strength: 21. Winner: Azarenka
16. Dubai. Strength: 21. Winner: A. Radwanska
18. Cincinnati. Strength: 25. Winner: Li
19. Eastbourne. Strength: 29. Winner: Paszek
20. New Haven. Strength: 32. Winner: Kvitova
21. Charleston. Strength: 43. Winner: S. Williams
22. Paris. Strength: 50. Winner: Kerber
23. Brisbane. Strength: 55. Winner: Kanepi
24. Brussels. Strength: 59. Winner: A. Radwanska
25. s-Hertogenbosch. Strength: 60. Winner: Petrova
26. Moscow. Strength: 61. Winner: Wozniacki
27. Stanford. Strength: 63. Winner: S. Williams
27. Linz. Strength: 63. Winner: Azarenka
29. Sofia. Strength: 79. Winner: Petrova
30. Seoul. Strength: 84. Winner: Wozniacki
31. San Diego. Strength: 88. Winner: Cibulkova
32. Barcelona. Strength: 91. Winner: Errani
32. Copenhagen. Strength: 91. Winner: Kerber
34. Pattaya City. Strength: 94. Winner: Hantuchova
35. Strasbourg. Strength: 100. Winner: Schiavone
36. Kuala Lumpur. Strength: 102. Winner: Hsieh
37. Auckland. Strength: 103. Winner: Zheng
38. Luxembourg. Strength: 114. Winner: V. Williams
39. Palermo. Strength: 119. Winner: Errani
40. Osaka. Strength: 126. Winner: Watson
41. Guangzhou. Strength: 133. Winner: Hsieh
42. Birmingham. Strength: 135. Winner: Oudin
43. Quebec City. Strength: 158. Winner: Flipkens
44. Bastad. Strength: 161. Winner: Hercog
45. Dallas. Strength: 162. Winner: Vinci
46. Estoril. Strength: 167. Winner: Kanepi
47. Hobart. Strength: 170. Winner: Barthel
48. Fes. Strength: 179. Winner: Bertens
49. Acapulco. Strength: 193. Winner: Errani
50. Bad Gastein. Strength: 203. Winner: Cornet
51. Budapest. Strength: 218. Winner: Errani
52. Monterrey. Strength: 222. Winner: Babos
53. Washington. Strength: 243. Winner: Rybarikova
54. Prague $100K. Strength: 251. Winner: Safarova
55. Memphis. Strength: 258. Winner: Arvidsson
56. Tashkent. Strength: 277. Winner: Begu
57. Nassau $100K+H. Strength: 282. Winner: Wozniak
58. Bogota. Strength: 354. Winner: Arruabarrena-Vecino
59. Taipei $125K. Strength: 357. Winner: Mladenovic
60. Poitiers $100K. Strength: 358. Winner: Puig
61. Nottingham $75K. Strength: 369. Winner: U. Radwanska
62. Bucharest $100K+H. Strength: 374. Winner: Torro-Flor
63. Suzhou $100K. Strength: 385. Winner: Hsieh
64. Cali $100K+H. Strength: 389. Winner: Dulgheru
65. Dubai $75K. Strength: 392. Winner: Date-Krumm
66. Ismaning $75K+H. Strength: 396. Winner: Beck
67. Midland $100K. Strength: 397. Winner: Govortsova
68. Cagnes-Sur-Mer $100K. Strength: 412. Winner: Putintseva
69. Biella $100K. Strength: 421. Winner: Larsson
70. Nantes $50K+H. Strength: 429. Winner: Niculescu
71. Olomouc $100K. Strength: 433. Winner: Torro-Flor
72. Biarritz $100K. Strength: 445. Winner: Oprandi
73. Baku. Strength: 456. Winner: Jovanovski
74. Ningbo $100K+H. Strength: 463. Winner: Hsieh
75. Osprey $50K. Strength: 468. Winner: Rus
76. Barnstaple $75K. Strength: 486. Winner: Beck
77. Saint-Gaudens $50K+H. Strength: 525. Winner: Duque Marino
78. Phoenix $75K. Strength: 527. Winner: Keys
79. New Braunfels $50K. Strength: 542. Winner: Oudin
80. Bronx $50K. Strength: 558. Winner: Oprandi
81. Gifu $50K. Strength: 569. Winner: Date-Krumm
82. Limoges $50K. Strength: 570. Winner: Feuerstein
83. Joue-Les-Tours $50K. Strength: 575. Winner: Puig
84. Dothan $50K. Strength: 590. Winner: Giorgi
85. Toyota $75K+H. Strength: 596. Winner: Voegele
86. Pune $125K. Strength: 607. Winner: Svitolina
87. Marseille $100K. Strength: 611. Winner: Dominguez Lino
88. Charlottesville $50K. Strength: 634. Winner: Oudin
89. Beijing $75K+H. Strength: 664. Winner: Wang
90. Vancouver $100K. Strength: 673. Winner: Burdette
91. Las Vegas $50K. Strength: 677. Winner: Davis
92. Indian Harbor Beach $50K. Strength: 692. Winner: Min
93. Astana $100K. Strength: 693. Winner: Koehler
94. Shrewsbury $75K. Strength: 700. Winner: Beck
95. Quanzhou $50K+H. Strength: 703. Winner: Date-Krumm
96. Albuquerque $75K. Strength: 708. Winner: M. Sanchez
97. Donetsk $50K. Strength: 719. Winner: Dolonc
98. Nottingham $50K. Strength: 721. Winner: Barty
99. Mestre $50K. Strength: 729. Winner: Knapp
100. Lexington $50K. Strength: 742. Winner: Glushko
101. Trnava $50K. Strength: 773. Winner: Sevastova
102. Podgorica $50K. Strength: 777. Winner: Voracova
103. Toronto $50K. Strength: 801. Winner: Bouchard
104. Saguenay $50K. Strength: 805. Winner: Keys
105. Versmold $50K. Strength: 834. Winner: Beck
106. Contrexeville $50K. Strength: 868. Winner: Rezai
107. Wenshan $50K. Strength: 870. Winner: Hsieh
108. Telavi $50K. Strength: 887. Winner: Svitolina
109. Fukuoka $50K. Strength: 942. Winner: Dellacqua
110. Denver $50K. Strength: 957. Winner: Gibbs
111. Craiova $50K+H. Strength: 961. Winner: Torro-Flor
112. Yakima $50K. Strength: 976. Winner: Rogers
113. Kazan $50K+H. Strength: 1064. Winner: Kozlova
114. Kurume $50K. Strength: 1327. Winner: S. Zheng
115. Waterloo $50K. Strength: 1416. Winner: Fichman
116. Sacramento $50K. Strength: 1599. Winner: M. Sanchez
The bottom of the list works well. The 19 weakest events are all $50K Challengers, the lowest tier we looked at, plus a few $50K+H events. The weakest WTA event — no big surprise here — was Baku, which comes in at #68; this is weaker than 16 Challengers (of which the Prague $100K was the strongest), but at least the weakest WTA events are all International tier. The weakest Premier event, San Diego, was stronger than all but three International events (‘s_Hertogenbosch, Linz, and Seoul). Only four International events (Memphis, Tashkent, Bogota, and of course Baku) were weaker than the Prague Challenger.
The top isn’t quite so clean; although the Slams are all at the top, and all the events at the top of the list are high Premiers (or the Olympics), we do find Sydney, at the bottom of the Premier scale, ahead of three top-tier events, Pan Pacific, Beijing, Canadian Open, Doha, and Cincinnati. Still, the gap there is small.
The strongest non-Premier event is ‘s-Hertogenbosch, which is all the way down at #25, so the distinction between Premier and non-Premier also works pretty well. (Interestingly, the top International event last year was also at #25, although Linz took the top spot in 2011.)
We do have one other system which allows slightly finer gradations than the preceding. However, it is based on Top 25 players, so it can’t do much with most Challengers. But we’ll rank the WTA events based on this “modified TSI,” which is expressed as a percentage of the maximum possible strength (which is defined as an event with all of the Top Five and eight of the Top Ten). That’s this list:
1. Australian Open. TSI: 100%. Winner: Azarenka
1. Indian Wells. TSI: 100%. Winner: Azarenka
1. Miami. TSI: 100%. Winner: A. Radwanska
1. Stuttgart. TSI: 100%. Winner: Sharapova
1. Madrid. TSI: 100%. Winner: S. Williams
1. Rome. TSI: 100%. Winner: Sharapova
1. Roland Garros. TSI: 100%. Winner: Sharapova
1. Wimbledon. TSI: 100%. Winner: S. Williams
1. Olympics. TSI: 100%. Winner: S. Williams
1. U. S. Open. TSI: 100%. Winner: S. Williams
1. Istanbul. TSI: 100%. Winner: S. Williams
12. Sydney. TSI: 97%. Winner: Azarenka
12. Pan Pacific. TSI: 97%. Winner: Petrova
12. Beijing. TSI: 97%. Winner: Azarenka
15. Canadian Open. TSI: 91%. Winner: Kvitova
16. Cincinnati. TSI: 81%. Winner: Li
17. Doha. TSI: 77%. Winner: Azarenka
17. Dubai. TSI: 77%. Winner: A. Radwanska
19. Eastbourne. TSI: 59%. Winner: Paszek
20. New Haven. TSI: 56%. Winner: Kvitova
21. Charleston. TSI: 45%. Winner: S. Williams
22. Paris. TSI: 38%. Winner: Kerber
23. Brisbane. TSI: 36%. Winner: Kanepi
23. Moscow. TSI: 36%. Winner: Wozniacki
25. Brussels. TSI: 32%. Winner: A. Radwanska
26. Linz. TSI: 31%. Winner: Azarenka
27. s-Hertogenbosch. TSI: 27%. Winner: Petrova
28. Stanford. TSI: 26%. Winner: S. Williams
29. San Diego. TSI: 16%. Winner: Cibulkova
30. Kuala Lumpur. TSI: 16%. Winner: Hsieh
30. Seoul. TSI: 16%. Winner: Wozniacki
32. Pattaya City. TSI: 14%. Winner: Hantuchova
32. Copenhagen. TSI: 14%. Winner: Kerber
34. Auckland. TSI: 14%. Winner: Zheng
35. Barcelona. TSI: 13%. Winner: Errani
35. Sofia. TSI: 13%. Winner: Petrova
37. Palermo. TSI: 11%. Winner: Errani
37. Guangzhou. TSI: 11%. Winner: Hsieh
37. Osaka. TSI: 11%. Winner: Watson
40. Birmingham. TSI: 9%. Winner: Oudin
40. Luxembourg. TSI: 9%. Winner: V. Williams
42. Strasbourg. TSI: 8%. Winner: Schiavone
43. Quebec City. TSI: 3%. Winner: Flipkens
44. Monterrey. TSI: 2%. Winner: Babos
44. Acapulco. TSI: 2%. Winner: Errani
44. Estoril. TSI: 2%. Winner: Kanepi
44. Bad Gastein. TSI: 2%. Winner: Cornet
44. Bastad. TSI: 2%. Winner: Hercog
44. Dallas. TSI: 2%. Winner: Vinci
50. Washington. TSI: 2%. Winner: Rybarikova
51. Hobart. TSI: 0%. Winner: Barthel
51. Bogota. TSI: 0%. Winner: Arruabarrena-Vecino
51. Memphis. TSI: 0%. Winner: Arvidsson
51. Fes. TSI: 0%. Winner: Bertens
51. Budapest. TSI: 0%. Winner: Errani
51. Baku. TSI: 0%. Winner: Jovanovski
51. Tashkent. TSI: 0%. Winner: Begu
This is fairly similar to the preceding list, but in this case, Stuttgart, not Sydney, becomes the top Premier 700. It’s still pretty much the same list at the bottom, and San Diego is still the weakest Premier event. Linz edges ahead of ‘s-Hertogenbosch to become the #1 International; it is ahead of two Premier events, Stanford and San Diego.
It’s interesting and impressive to see that Serena Williams not only won lots of titles, she won lots of big ones — five of the twelve top events, to just two for Azarenka and three for Sharapova. Agnieszka Radwanska, the WTA #4, won the other one, so being Top Four and winning big titles has at least some correlation.