Today’s Men’s Feature (11/15)

Written by: Staff on 15th November 2012

Today's Men's Feature (11/15)

epa03465028 Tomas Berdych of Czech Republic returns to Novak Djokovic of Serbia during their match at the ATP World Tour Finals in London, Britain, 09 November 2012. EPA/KERIM OKTEN |

Men’s Look Forward: Davis Cup

People have been talking about the indoor surface here as the Czech secret weapon in the contest again Spain.

Anyone looked at David Ferrer’s indoor record lately?

In 2012, Ferrer went 14-2 indoors. That’s 88%. He had two titles. By comparison, Czech #1 Tomas Berdych was 14-4, 78%. He also had two titles, but they were weaker.

To be sure, the Spanish #2 is Nicolas Almagro, and his indoor record was only 5-3, with his best result being a semifinal. On the other hand, the Czech #2 is Radek Stepanek, and he was only 3-3 indoors.

In terms of depth, the edge is probably with Spain; their #3 is Marcel Granollers, while the Czechs would have to turn to the inconsistent Lukas Rosol. The Spanish also have the more regular doubles team in Granollers and Marc Lopez; the Czechs will almost certainly play Berdych and Stepanek. Which, of course, will tire out their two singles players for the reverse singles. The Spanish will all be rested.

The #4 players on each team are surely non-factors in the singles; the Spanish of course have Lopez, while the Czechs are stuck with Ivo Minar.

It’s hard to say much about current form. Berdych beat Ferrer at London 2011, but they haven’t met since. Looking at the matches individually, there is probably a slight edge to Berdych over Ferrer, but Ferrer should beat Stepanek. Berdych will probably beat Almagro, but Almagro will likely beat Stepanek. The Spanish have the edge in the doubles. The Czechs have the home court. It’s probably a slight edge to the Spanish — but psychology is likely to matter a lot. And the Czechs have the motivation that they already won the Fed Cup final. It’s not often a country can hold both national cups….

To add to the fun, as you may have read in World News, there is bad blood in particular between Berdych and Almagro. Will it matter? Berdych would likely beat Almagro on this surface no matter what.

Davis Cup carries points now, and in the final, they’re fairly significant. It won’t matter to Berdych, though; he can’t move in the singles rankings. And there are no doubles points.

The one player who could benefit substantially is Stepanek. Matches have to be live to count, and he is guaranteed at least one live match — he opens the tie against Ferrer. He is currently #37. One win would probably be enough to earn him an Australian Open seed. Two would guarantee it.

Almagro, too, has a chance to rise, a little. He comes in tied with Richard Gasquet in points, and Davis Cup counts for him. Win one match and he will rise to #10. But it has to be a live match. Not much chance for him, then, unless the tie is still live when he faces Stepanek on Sunday.

David Ferrer can’t rise. He’s a little too far behind Rafael Nadal. But the gap between them is less than 300 points. A good result would bring him to within a hair of Nadal in the contest for #4. Which could make things very interesting around the time of the Australian Open.