How Does Fed Get the Year-End Number 1 Ranking

Written by: Tennischiro on 16th October 2012

How Does Fed Get the Year-End Number 1 Ranking

epa03396658 Swiss tennis player Roger Federer during his training at the Westergasfabriek in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 13 September 2012, for the Davis Cup World Group play-off between the Netherlands and Switzerland held from 14 till 16 September. EPA/TOUSSAINT KLUITERS |

It’s not mathematically impossible yet; just highly unlikely. If I were a London bookie, I’d be trying to make some money off Federer fans offering pretty long odds on him retaining the top ranking until year-end. It doesn’t seem like such a bad bet. Federer ran the table last year coming off a much weaker recent showing, picking up 3000 points winning Basel, Paris and London on his favorite indoor courts. In fact, if Djokovic and Federer repeated their performances from last year, Fed would outdistance Djoker by 2440 points and overcome Novak’s 2155 point lead in the year-to-date race points, with 285 points to spare. Even if Djoker won an additional match in any of the three tournaments, if Roger runs the table again, he still takes the top spot for the year. But if Djokovic adds two additional matches, then it is mathematically impossible. But if Fed pulls it off in front of his home town crowd in Basel, he still has a chance even if Djoker gets to the final there. But it is a slim one.

As unlikely as this might be, here is the only way I see that this scenario could come to pass, baring a season ending injury to Djokovic. Right now, no one except for Murray or Federer has a decent chance of beating Djokovic indoors (including a healthy, but not tournament sharp Nadal). It might happen, but it’s not likely and not more than once. So Fed has to get lucky with the draws and have Murray end up in Djoker’s half for all three events. Then Murray has to play brilliantly to barely beat Djoker in Basel. Worn down by the effort, he succumbs easily to Federer in the final. Then in Paris, Djoker gets that one additional match win over last year’s effort and meets Murray in the semis a second week in a row. Again, Murray must win an epic match with Djokovic (hey, it was over 3 hours in Shanghai and Murray seems to be getting better). Again, Federer reaps the benefit against the spent Brit.

If it goes the other way and Djokovic makes the final in Paris, Federer has almost no chance of holding onto the top spot. And we all know it is doubtful Fed could run the table again against everybody else, but we also know it is possible. In fact, he is definitely the favorite against everyone else, especially indoors in Basel and Paris. But the scenario I have laid out requires one more suspension of disbelief. Right up the alley of any self-respecting Federer fan(short for fanatic!).

Once they get to London, Fed needs another good draw with Murray in Djokovic’s group. But that is not enough. Djokovic is going to have to be significantly exhausted by his two long semifinal losses to Murray that he is susceptible to someone outside of Murray or Federer, maybe even a fresh Nadal for one match. Somewhere in here, Tsonga could step up and serve unbelievable for a match. If Djokovic wins two matches in London, it’s done. But if someone catches a weary Djoker early in the week and then it comes down to Novak and Andy fighting it out for the second spot in the semis (to meet Federer), they could again play an epic match. Again, Fed would need a depleted Murray to survive to play him in the semis.

Yes, it’s true. I live just a few miles from Hollywood. But if it does happen, you heard it here first. I first pointed out Roger had a chance to retake number one last May after he won Madrid.

https://archive.10sballs.com/2012/05/19/do-you-like-to-play-what-if-roger%E2%80%A6/

I wish this screenplay could turn into reality. It would be great for tennis. Roger has already achieved the equivalent of 800 home runs in baseball (Bonds-762, Aaron-755) with his 300 weeks at number one. Sportswriters might compare 17 Major victories to Nicklaus’s 18 in golf. But a record 6th year on top of the year-end ATP rankings would be another tremendous milestone in Federer’s amazing career. I don’t think it will happen. But I sure hope Roger at least makes it through Basel to keep the dream alive for one more week. But he won’t be able to do it alone. He’s going to need a lot of help from Andy Murray. He’s even going to need help from Djokovic to tire out Murray. But it’s not impossible…

10sChiro

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