Shanghai
Singles – Quarterfinal: (1) R Federer def. (10) M Cilic 6-3 6-4
Roger Federer blew a break lead in the second set, but finally got it back to earn a few insurance points in the contest for #1. Marin Cilic will be #14.
Singles – Quarterfinal: (2) N Djokovic def. T Haas 6-3 6-3
Roger Federer may have given himself some breathing room in the rankings, but Novak Djokovic still leads the Race, and every point he earns improves his chances for the year-end #1, because Federer has to gain ground and so far has not been able to do so. Tommy Haas will have to settle for the #20 ranking.
Singles – Quarterfinal: (3) A Murray def. R Stepanek 4-6 6-2 6-3
We show Radek Stepanek at #36. Andy Murray of course is #3, and if he wants to end the year higher, he’d better hope Federer and Djokovic start losing…. He can help himself in that regard by beating Federer in the semifinal.
Singles – Quarterfinal: (4) T Berdych def. (5) J Tsonga 6-3 7-6(7-4)
This was the day’s one contest with immediate big rankings implications. Tomas Berdych just lost the #6 ranking to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga; with this, he takes the #6 spot back — and could still reach #5 if he can win the title. The even bigger implications are in the Race. Tsonga came in lower in rankings than Race — #8 rather than #6. A good result here would have dramatically improved his chances. A quarterfinal helps a little, but he remains about 400 points behind #7 Juan Martin del Potro. So he’s vulnerable. The good news is, the guys closest to him (Tipsarevic, Almagro, Monaco, Gasquet, Raonic, Isner) all lost earlier still. So if Tsonga will have a hard time climbing, the others will have an even harder time catching him. At this point, we’d give Tsonga much better than even odds of qualifying even if he doesn’t add another point.
Doubles – Quarterfinal: (7) Bhupathi/Bopanna def. (2) Mirnyi/Nestor 7-6(9-7) 6-4
We haven’t actually done the calculation to figure out if this makes it official — but we don’t have to. After this, we know who will be the year-end #1 doubles team. The Bryans will hold the top spots. The only question is their margin.
Doubles – Quarterfinal: (4) Paes/Stepanek def. Melzer/Raonic 7-5 6-7(4-7) 10-5 (Match TB)
Paes/Stepanek are the top doubles team left here. Can they do something with that opportunity? They haven’t won a title since Miami.
Doubles – Quarterfinal: Fleming/Hutchins def. (6) Qureshi/Rojer 7-6(7-2) 6-4
Of course, there are other questions left in doubles apart from who gets the year-end #1. There is also the question of who goes to London. This result and the preceding make things a lot more interesting, because Qureshi/Rojer and Fyrstenberg/Matkowski are close to tied in the contest for #6 and #7 — and Bhupathi/Bopanna are #8, and the only one of the three teams still active and adding points. We said above that we’re pretty confident about the eight London singles qualifiers. But we’re far from sure in doubles.
Doubles – Quarterfinal: Cilic/Melo def. Butorac/Petzschner 6-3 7-6(7-5)